🇬🇪 Georgia on my mind: Parliamentary elections on 26 October

[Astatine]

Georgia elects a new Parliament on 31 October this year - and as half-Georgian who is familiar to politics there to a certain degree, I decided to do a thread about it.

Background:

Georgia gained independence in 1991 from the Soviet Union. The first President elected was Sviad Gamzakhurdia, who was a staunch nationalist and opposed regional autonomy leading to conflicts with the ethnic minorities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia (which is often referred to as "Tskhinvali region" in Georgia) and to some degree in Adjara (mainly Muslim Georgians). He was overthrown after less than one year and replaced by a military government, leading to a civil war which is way to complicated to be explained in detail (in which Gamzakhurdia died under quite mysterious circumstances), but it included several brutal massacres on both sides, the most prominent one being the ethnic cleansing of Abkhazia in the fall of Sokhumi in 1993. Russia's role in this war is one of the reasons why the relationship between both countries have been tense.

During the civil war, Abkhazia and South Ossetia gained de-facto independence, while Adjara was largely independent from Georgia doing their own things under an authoritarian ruler called Aslan Abashidze. In 1995, former Soviet Secretary of State Eduard Shevardnadze became President and as usual for many post-Soviet countries, the economy was completely ruined, corruption and criminality were spreading and both nationalists still backing Gamzakhurdia and autonomists in other regions (for instance Svanetia) were destabilizing the government. Shevardnadze was reelected in 2000 in a fraud election.

In 2003, rigged parliamentary elections lead to an uprising leading to the downfall of Eduard Shevardnadze, the Rose Revolution, he eventually resigned and in recall elections, the United National Movement party, a liberal-conservative party, scored a landslide victory. Their leader, Mikhail Saakashvili, was elected President after a short interim term of Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze and managed to fully reintegrate Adjara into the Georgian state in 2004 (Abashidze's regime was held alive by Russia until Putin withdrew his support). In his term, the economy boomed and the widespread corruption was basically abolished. Saakashvili was a strong ally of US President George W. Bush (there is even a George Bush Avenue in Georgia's capital Tbilisi!) and his goal was to integrate Georgia into NATO and EU, with this being broad popular consensus.

During Saakashvili's first term, one of allies, Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania, mysteriously died and with increasing dissatisfaction and demonstrations against authoritarian tendencies of his government, he offered his resignation and ran again for President. His then-ally Nino Burjanadze took over as President again. In the 2008 elections, he was elected comfortably, although opposition claimed voter fraud (…interestingly, one of his opponents – philanthropist Badri Patarkazishvili - also died shortly after the election…). Relations between Abkhazia/South Ossetia (backed by Russia) and Georgia remained tense, and after provocations by Russia, Georgia declared war on South Ossetia which basically was a shot into Georgia’s own knee, as Georgia lost control over all of the territories. Russia recognized both as independent countries and foreign relations have been completely disrupted henceforth. Due to the war, Nino Burjanadze broke with her former political ally Saakashvili.

In his second term, Saakashvili became increasingly authoritarian with several mass protests being organized against him. Several opposition parties (conservatives, liberals, social democrats) united to form the “Georgian Dream” coalition which was backed by businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili (who is the richest man in Georgia), leading to a defeat of UNM in the 2012 parliamentary elections. A constitutional amendment was passed in meantime switching Georgia from a presidential to semi-presidential republic, and Saakashvili hoped to become Prime Minister after his term would expire in 2013. The cohabitation was a tense time since both men detest each other.

In 2013, an Ivanishvili ally became President (Giorgi Margvelashvili) and Ivanishvili subsequently resigned as Prime Minister, but still continuing to be the man in charge. He was officially retired but dictated governmental policies. GD itself is not really that much ideologically different from UNM, and turned out to end up the same way as UNM did with its tendency for authoritarianism, leading to several formerly allied parties leaving the coalition (including the Free Democrats – my Mum’s best friend used to be the party leader’s roommate!). The government charged Saakashvili with several crimes ranging from corruption to involvement in murder and whatsoever, and he retracted his citizenship, becoming Governor of Odessa, then feuding with Petro Poroshenko, almost jumping off a roof, coming back to Ukraine again and almost becoming the country’s deputy Prime Minister.

In the 2016 elections, UNM and GD both suffered losses, but none of the partied split from GD made it into Parliament. In this election, a pro-Russian force entered Parliament. In the following years, the economy was quite mediocre and dissatisfaction with GD grew, but considering the many corruption cases in which UNM was involved, the opposition never really gained traction leading to several UNM members leaving their party and forming the “European Georgia” caucus, which is basically UNM light with less corruption and less favorable attitude towards Saakashvili. Dissatisfaction with the government grew, especially due to the voting system (Mixed MMP) which lead to a 3/4-majority of GD in spite of them winning under 50 % of the votes in 2016. A presidential election in the meantime was won by GD backed candidate Salome Surabishvili who succeeded the increasingly anti-Ivanishvili President Margvelashvili who became politically isolated due to several vetoes, and although it was technically “free”, it was not really fair since media has a clear bias towards Ivanishvili and his allies. Additionally, GD stripped any power away from the presidency to ensure that the opposition would not block their agenda.

The protests lead to the resignation of the Prime Minister (after Ivanishvili’s resignation, there were several ones who I consider quite irrelevant since firstly, none of them was killed and secondly, Ivanishvili is the man in charge) and to a change of the voting system. The number of districts was reduced and now there is just a 1 % threshold – We will see a lot of diversity in the next Parliament. Ah, and by the way, our old friend Saakashvili came back from the political dead (he didn’t/doesn’t even have a Georgian citizenship, who knows what country he is citizen of now…), because today he was declared UNM’s candidate for prime minister - although he is a convicted criminal in his home country.

Besides, relations to Russia have not really improved and it seems increasingly unlikely that South Ossetia and Abkhazia will ever return to Georgia, albeit that is the goal of almost all of Georgia's parties. And the whole story about Sviad Gamzakhurdia is not over yet, there are new investigations about his death.

In the next post, I will go into detail about the current political parties…

[Astatine]

Before introducing the political parties, I should note that Georgia is a social conservative country which is extremely religious. Homophobia is also widespread, even among younger generations. So social issues such as same-sex marriage etc. are not really debated. Pro-EU and Pro-NATO policies are also consensus, it is just often personal rivalry resulting in a polarized country. The polling aggregate is the average of three polls conducted in July and August. It should be noted that many polls have a high number of undecided voters. And note: When speaking of “Economic liberalism”, I speak from a European perspective.

Georgian Dream (GD)
Leader: Bidzina Ivanishvili
Ideology: pro EU/pro NATO, Social democracy/Centrism, Social conservatism
Polling: 41 % (2016: 48.7 %)
Georgian Dream has no real ideology, but is often described as rather center-left in spite of being socially conservative (they actually implemented a ban on same-sex marriage in constitution). GD is basically under full control of Bidzina Ivanishvili, and whoever stands in his way, will get sacked, just like President Margvelashvili.
The party has been governing for 8 years now and in spite of some fatigue among voters of GD, the recent (quite well-regarded) Covid-19 response has boosted GD's chances of winning a new term. GD will continue to seek for integration within EU and NATO, to prosecute UNM members for crimes and to spend money for the poor, especially in rural areas (after Tbilisi was the party's best region in 2012, they performed worse there and increased their margin in the rural areas). It seems as of now as they don't need a coalition partner, because that could be a bit more tricky.

United National Movement (UNM)
Leader: Mikhail Saakashvili
Ideology: pro EU/pro NATO, Economic liberalism, Social conservatism
Polling: 17 % (2016: 27.1 %)
UNM has been on decline since 2003, and according to most polls, this is not going to change - although they were conducted before nomination of highly polarizing political figure Saakashvili. UNM is more pro-business than GD, but socially about as conservative (maybe slightly more moderate) and definitely at least as corrupt as GD, likely much more. UNM is very popular among many due to their messed up term 2008-12, for which many party members still face court proceedings (although UNM claims they're politically motivated). UNM is not as isolated as in 2016 and will run joint candidates with other anti-Ivanishvili parties (e.g. EG), but will have a hard time stopping their continues decline. UNM is quite radical in being anti-Ivanishvili and regularly likes to claim fraud everywhere.

European Georgia (EG)
Ideology: pro EU/pro NATO, Economic liberalism, Social conservatism
Leader: David Bakradze
Polling: 6 % (did not run in 2016)
European Georgia is basically UNM light with less corruption and more pragmatism. Unlike UNM, they favor contesting elections instead of boycotting them. David Bakradze was UNM's presidential candidate in 2013 and one of the most prominent politicians of UNM. His personal appeal could bring EG some seats, but in long-term, it is questionable whether the party can survive (they have 19 seats as of now while UNM has 7, still UNM leads in polling). It reminds a bit of the FPÖ/BZÖ split in Austria in 2008.

Alliance of Patriots of Georgia (APG)
Leader: Irma Inashvili
Ideology: pro Russia, Socialism, Social conservatism/nationalism
Polling: 4 % (2016: 5.0 %)
APG is a completely anti-mainstream party and it very much seems as if they will never ever be anywhere but in opposition. APG is pro-Russian, anti-EU and anti-NATO, emphasizing Christianity as unifier of both Russia and Georgia. Many Georgians consider APG as traitors due to their support of Russia, but they could benefit from a small, but increasing number of Georgians who feel like entering EU and NATO will never happen.

Lelo
Leader: Mamuka Khazaradze/David Usupashvili
Ideology: pro EU/pro NATO, Centrism, “Moderate”
Polling: 3 % (did not run in 2016)
This alliance of several smaller centrist and liberal parties includes several former Ivanishvili allies who turned against him and – surprise, surprise! – face charges for different crimes. David Usupashvili was Speaker of the Georgian Parliament for four years and member of the long traditioned Republican Party, which does not run this year or under Lelo banner (can’t information about them…). They are mainstream on most issues, want to break the two-party system and are relatively moderate on social stances in comparison to most other parties.  

Georgian Labour Party (GLP)
Leader: Shalva Natelashvili
Ideology: Joke // pro EU/pro NATO, Socialism, Social conservatism
Polling: 3 % (2016: 3.1 %)
GLP call themselves socialists but in that way that they have a favorable attitude towards Stalin. Their leader Shalva Natelashvili is considered a real joke among most Georgians. Actually, in 2008, they signed a cooperation with German satire party “Die PARTEI”…

Girchi (“pine cone”)
Leader: Zurab “Girchi” Japaridze
Ideology: pro Western but Eurosceptic, Economic libertarianism, Libertarianism
Polling: 2 % (did not run in 2016)
Girchi is a quite interesting party. They are libertarian as well as anti-Church and in Georgia’s politics, this is a remarkable outstanding feature. Girchi is especially popular among younger voters – They filed a lawsuit which effectively legalized cannabis consume and founded an own church, to which anyone can apply as priest to avoid military service which is compulsory for men excluding churchmen. They are more Eurosceptic than most other parties, but still advocate integration in EU and NATO.

Democratic Movement / United Georgia (DMUG)
Leader: Nino Burjanadze
Ideology: pro Russia, Economic nationalism, Social conservatism
Polling: 1 % (2016: 3.5 %)
DMUG is basically Nino Burjanadze, who once was a Saakashvili ally and liberal/conservative reformist, two (short-)term interim President, turning into a nationalist advocating strong ties to Russia. Burjanadze’s personal popularity has been on decline for years: In 2013, she received 10 % in the presidential election, in 2016 DMUG got 3.5 % for parliament and now it seems like they’re close to irrelevancy after having failed the 5 % threshold in 2016. If they don’t get 1 % and thus some seats, Burjanadze’s career will effectively be over.

Citizens
Leader: Aleko Elishasvili
Ideology: pro EU/pro NATO, Centrism?, “Moderate”?
Polling: 1 % (did not run in 2016)
The Citizen party joined the UNM/EG alliance for district candidates, but left it shortly after and accused the other parties of being pro-Russian in disguise. Appears to be another more radical UNM copy.

Assuming this were to be the actual result (excluding other parties), the proportional seats (120) would be allocated like this:
GD: 62-65
UNM: 26-27
EG: 9
APG: 6
Lelo: 4-5
GLP: 4-5
Girchi: 3
DMUG: 1-2
Citizens: 1-2

The 30 seats allocated according to districts are harder to predict, but I'd guess GD would sweep most... So the Parliament of 150 members would have a (narrow) GD majority, down from the more than 100 MPs they got in 2016. If GD fails to secure a majority, it is very hard to see the opposition allying against them due to ideological differences.

[PSOL]

Can you tell us more about the Georgian Labor Party?

[Astatine]

Can you tell us more about the Georgian Labor Party?

The Georgian Labor Party is basically a kind of personality cult (like most Georgian parties) around Shalva Natelashvili, who has been leading the party for more than 25 years now. He is a kind of eccentric person, being largerly seen as quite unserious and trying to do anything for attention. All of my Georgian relatives and friends I asked about him say he should not be taken seriously. He has always been an opposition activist and his party actually - as far as I know - did never participate in government.

In 2003, SLP became largest party in the Tbilisi local election, but he refused to become Mayor and offered this position to Mikheil Saakashvili. I guess this cost him a lot of credibility since it appears like he always demands change but as soon as he is in position to assume responsibility he denies. Still, because he says what he means, his approval rating is not bad (in 2014: 44 appr./35. disappr.).

Some key points about SLP's platform and Natelashvili:

1.) They favor Western integration just like most of the other parties and are very much anti-Russia. Still, Natelashvili is very skeptical of Turkey, claiming that "The entire coastal area from Sarpi to Kobuleti has been occupied by Turkey".
2.) Free the country from corruption and influence of oligarchs. Natelashvili accuses other GD of being pro-Russian and bought by oligarchs. He also claims that voter fraud is still a thing to some certain degree - A point where OSCE would disagree, at least to that degree that Natelashvili claims.
3.) They condemned the Rose Revolution back in 2003 (a very unpopular stance at that time considering its popular support), although Natelashvili basically paved the way for Saakashvili to become leader of the opposition and considered him an "illegitimate president".
4.) Although the SLP cooperated with other opposition forces in advance of the 2008 snap election, Natelashvili spontaneously declared his own candidacy claiming that “[he] can not rely on anyone, except of [him]self, when the Georgian President’s position matters.” He also accused the opposition of copying his program.
5.) Natelashvili supported a constitutional monarchy as of 2008.
6.) He promised free electricity and gas in 2008 and wanted to make businesses pay for it while cutting taxes for them - a stance completely unrealistic, especially when taking into account that back then economy was in process of recovery and this would not really be favorable towards that. Additionally, he wanted to give 1.000 Lari to every born child and cut forest fees and agricultural taxes.
7.) On foreign immigration Natelashvili said: “Raids by illegal migrant workers, who spread like mushrooms, will be resisted. We don't have enough jobs for ourselves, so we cannot give them to others.” Generally, he is a populist: Ahead of the 2018 presidential elections, he scored 2nd on number of hate speech while campaigning, especially against immigrants.
8.) Plus, Natelashvili is homophobic, saying that "Historians will remember not that he [Bidzina Ivanishvili] built Trinity Cathedral, but that he had antidiscrimination law adopted and held a gay parade, at least he did not hinder it." plus "We see how this issue is being addressed in the West; [homosexuality] has been removed from the registry as a disease and now the fight is underway to legalize them as families and give them the right to adopt a child. Similar processes have been launched by certain international forces in the world, so that to turn morphine and other drugs into daily use consumer products" - Although this position is quite mainstream in Georgia and less radical than for instance DMUG's platform.
9.) In 2008, the German satire party "Die PARTEI" signed a cooperation treaty with SLP and Natelashvili was inviting press, claiming it is a parliamentary party. This was a genius move by Die PARTEI - It is really just satiric and still, Natelashvili didn't research or anything and signed the cooperation.
10.) At least from what could be derived from an interview, SLP seems to be supportive of women, albeit I couldn't find anything about stances on abortion.

So although SLP might have some well intentions, but in total, after all things and statements accumulated in 25 years of their existence, they should not be taken too seriously. I guess SLP could be compared a bit to the Italian 5 Star Movement stuck in its early stages from what I know about it (if you read this, Battista Minola, correct me please, I really don't know much about them!). Natelashvili himself reminds me of a mix of Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard.

Some interviews and sources in English:
https://old.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=16635
https://www.labour.ge/en/news/article/14700--halva-atelashvili-ighting-for-political-change-in-eorgia
https://old.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=16455
https://old.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=5962

And here is a link to a study of Georgian parties and politicians using hate speech, quite interesting: http://mdfgeorgia.ge/uploads/library/101/file/eng/Hate_speech_eng_rep.pdf

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Thanks a lot for posting this. Hopefully I'll do my own catching up on this topic on my own time. I've been slacking on my Eurasia watching of late.

[PSOL]

The f•••, so does the Georgian Left even exist?

[Astatine]

The f•••, so does the Georgian Left even exist?

Social Liberalism is a real niche in Georgian politics. Classical social liberal position such as being pro LGBT are widely opposed (I believe 95 % disapprove of homosexuality), while Georgia is quite progressive on women's rights in comparison to other Eastern European countries having introduced a women's quota of 25 % for the upcoming elections (and actually having had 2 female Presidents).

Besides Girchi, only the Republican Party comes to my mind when speaking of Social Liberals. The Republicans were once an important opposition force and part of the Georgian Dream Coalition in 2012, but most of their members left the party and they just got 1.x % in 2016. They have a list for October, but it was first dismissed. I am friends with the leader of the Republicans' leader on Facebook and she regularly posts LGBT friendly stuff. But they're a pro-business party.

Economic Left is mostly covered up by SLP, APG also has some left stances (massive expansion of social programmes) and to some degree, GD, but all are socially "moderate" (in Georgian perspective) or even nationalist.
If Georgian elections were a political compass: Auth. Right and Auth. Left win once again!

A combination of both is really hard to be found. There are several smaller political parties and considering that 1 % is a reaallyyyy low threshold, a surprise could be expected, but I cannot find a classical (center-)left party that is both economically and socially left. There is a party called "Solidarity" that split from GD, but I don't know their social platform. Considering the general attitude of the Georgians towards Social Liberalism, I doubt they'd be anything but "moderate" at max.

[CumbrianLefty]

The f•••, so does the Georgian Left even exist?

Social Liberalism is a real niche in Georgian politics. Classical social liberal position such as being pro LGBT are widely opposed (I believe 95 % disapprove of homosexuality), while Georgia is quite progressive on women's rights in comparison to other Eastern European countries having introduced a women's quota of 25 % for the upcoming elections (and actually having had 2 female Presidents).

That sort of figure must be rare outside (some) Muslim countries these days.

(I mean, even Russia has a significantly larger pro-LGBT minority)

[Astatine]

The f•••, so does the Georgian Left even exist?

Social Liberalism is a real niche in Georgian politics. Classical social liberal position such as being pro LGBT are widely opposed (I believe 95 % disapprove of homosexuality), while Georgia is quite progressive on women's rights in comparison to other Eastern European countries having introduced a women's quota of 25 % for the upcoming elections (and actually having had 2 female Presidents).

That sort of figure must be rare outside (some) Muslim countries these days.

(I mean, even Russia has a significantly larger pro-LGBT minority)

Yes, I just looked on Wikipedia. 95 % of Georgian disapprove of same-sex relationships and 3 % approve, only Armenia has a worse net approval. For Russia it's 7 % approval and 87 % disapproval, but the poll was conducted by a different pollster.

Still, laws against homosexuality are not as strict as for instance in Russia where "pro homosexual propaganda" is banned. I believe this could be caused by Georgia's long-term goal to join EU, as far as I know, there is legal protection to not be discriminated against at workplace for being LGBT. This progress on paper could be reversed easily if Georgians realize that EU membership is quite close to impossible (I doubt it will happen in the next 20 years).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Same-sex_marriage_opinion_polls_Europe

[Astatine]

Mikhail Saakashvili's return to Georgian was mostly received negatively by most parties. Those were the statements:

GD: GD politicians stated that Saakashvili is a creating political instability and a traitor for abandoning his home country, and that he will be facing justice for all the crimes he committed. GD could benefit from it as they now have the most polarizing politician of Georgia running against them. The voters' choice would be either status quo or returning to the chaos of Saakashvili and UNM.

EG: A mostly critical response - EG states they don't want to return to the one party state under UNM rule like pre-2012. Saakashvili's return is the best opportunity for EG to separate themselves from UNM and not be considered as "UNM light", but rather show voters that they can either vote for UNM and return to Saakashvili times or vote for real change. Still, it should be noted that basically all of EG was part of the "pre-2012 Saakashvili system" of corruption and authoritarianism. Their message might easily be considered dishonest and pandering.

DMUG: Nino Burjanadze excluded any cooperation with her former ally.

Lelo: Refuses to work with Saakashvili and also excludes cooperation with GD ("muh both sides").

Girchi: Reluctant reaction actually. A spokesman for Girchi stated that Saakashvili is a controversial figure, but he did not exclude a cooperation with him since his support is to be determined in the elections. That could show that in spite of their eccentricity they're a legitimate political force taking politics seriously ("muh get the job done with anyone").

Other parties did not react as of now.

In my opinion, his return will both boost UNM (they now have their charismatic long time leader to rally around) and GD for the reasons stated before. It could also help EG to a certain degree, but also weaken them. Smaller opposition parties have their own voter cores, but I would say that this will rather hurt them as the race is now GD vs. UNM instead of GD vs. fractured opposition.

[Astatine]

Additionally, the Georgian Electoral Commission stated that 78 parties applied for registration and 66 parties will be running in the upcoming elections. The full list of parties can be seen here: https://civil.ge/archives/365970.

Some might still be interesting as they have at least slight chances to enter Parliament:

Free Democrats (FD)
Leader: Tamar Kekenadze
Ideology: pro NATO/pro EU, Economic Liberalism, Moderate
2016: 4.6 %
The Free Democrats were the big losers of the 2016 elections. Rallied around former Secretary of State Irakli Alasania, a quite popular figure, they left the GD coalition and ran on their own and were considered to have chances to actually win seats (one poll had them as largest party). They failed narrowly - likely due to the fact that the "pro-business/anti-GD" vote was split. Alasania subsequently abandoned politics and the FD have been in a state of disarray ever since. If they're lucky, they might get to the magic threshold of 1 %.

The Republicans
Leader: Khatuna Samnidze
Ideology: pro NATO/pro EU, Economic Liberalism, Social Liberalism
2016: 1.6 %
I mentioned this party before because historically it is a party of great historical significance. Founded in 1978, the Republican Party was the first non-communist party in the Soviet Union and was active in the underground. They had essential role in the 2003 Rose Revolution and constructively supported Mikhail Saakashvili, but turned against him later and allied with the FD and later with GD. Their former leader David Usupashvili became Speaker of the Parliament as part of the GD coalition deal in 2012, but they withdrew from government later and failed to reconquer seats. Many of their members crossed over to form the Lelo party. As stated before, they are probably the most prominent social liberal party.

Industry will save Georgia - Industrialists
Leader: Zurab Tkemaladze
Ideology: Euroscepticism/Nationalism, Economic Freedom, Nationalism/Conservatism
2016: 0.8 %
A fringe party rallied around the owner of a beer brewery, Gogi Topadze. The Industrialists were part of the GD coalition in 2012 but ran on their own in 2016 and actually won one district (Topadze's), giving them parliamentary representation. Due to redistricting it is questionable whether that will happen again, although I am not sure whether GD filed a candidate in Topadze's district or whether Topadze is actually running as he stepped down from party leadership. They are very isolationist and protectionist, and their platform seems more like from 19th century.

Georgian Troupe (GT)
Leader: Jondi Baghaturia
Ideology: Nationalism, Socialism, National Conservatism
2016: 0.1 %
Authoritarianism in a nutshell, being hardcore left on economic issues and hardcore conservative/right on social issues. They split from Labor for not being radical enough. GT has hardly any political relevance but a small, but loud radical base, often being violent. Doesn't seem likely that this base is enough to gather 1 %.

Other parties are really irrelevant (as stated before, surprise surges cannot be excluded, 1 % is really a low threshold). As it was asked for a true center-left party, in the list there was a party called the Progressives, so we might keep an eye on them.

If you go through the list, you will realize that to be in Georgian politics you just need the following buzzwords: "Georgia", "Democratic", "Free", "Christian", an Ideology - probably "Conservative" - one word to make your party distinguished ("party"/"alliance"/"union"/"movement") and... you have your party. That really works, this an excerpt from the list...

Georgia, Christian-Democratic Movement, New Christian Democrats, Conservative Party of Georgia, National Democratic Movement, Conservative-Monarchist Party of Georgia, Georgian Social-Democratic Party, Christian-Conservative Party of Georgia, Our Georgia - Solidarity, Free Georgia, Freedom, Georgian Idea, Georgian March, National-Democratic Party, United Georgia, Future Georgia, Change Georgia, Public Movement Christian Democrats...

[Astatine]

2 weeks until the election takes place...

October polling has been showing a consistent race - those are the average numbers (from both polls) for the major parties, excluding undecideds - likely proportional seat numbers in brackets :

GD: 42.3 % (56-58)
UNM: 24.1 % (32-33)
EG: 8.3 % (11)
APG: 3.3 % (4)
Lelo: 3.8 % (5)
GLP: 3.4 % (4-5)
Girchi: 2.6 % (3)
DMUG:  1.4 % (1-2)
Citizens: 1.4 % (1-2)

GD would be 18-20 seats short of an overall majority with those numbers. 30 seats are distributed according to FTPT districts - GD swept almost all of them in 2016, but it is questionable whether that will happen again as several opposition parties formed alliances to compete against GD. Plus, if no candidate receives a majority on October 31, a runoff will take place two weeks later. If GD doesn't receive an outright majority in two weeks, the campaign for the district seats will get very nasty.

Some other developments:

- In the conflict around Artsakh/Armenia/Azerbaijan, Georgia vows to remain neutral so far. Georgia's relations to Armenia are not the best, since Armenia did not condemn the occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia yet. In a Southern region of Georgia, the plurality of the population is ethnic Armenian, so the tensions around Artsakh could fuel separatist sentiments.

- Whoever wants to read about district alliances - This live blog gives a good overview: https://civil.ge/archives/363949

[DavidB.]

Excellent thread. Saakashvili is GD's most valuable asset. For almost a decade now, UNM's presence has prevented any serious opposition party from challenging GD's position as Georgia's party of government. Saakashvili is completely toxic to the vast majority of Georgians, but he has a sufficiently sizeable following to remain in the picture purely on paper. As long as Saakashvili keeps sticking his head around the corner before every election, Ivanishvili will stay in power.

[PSOL]

Excellent thread. Saakashvili is GD's most valuable asset. For almost a decade now, UNM's presence has prevented any serious opposition party from challenging GD's position as Georgia's party of government. Saakashvili is completely toxic to the vast majority of Georgians, but he has a sufficiently sizeable following to remain in the picture purely on paper. As long as Saakashvili keeps sticking his head around the corner before every election, Ivanishvili will stay in power.

Our most iconic Dutch poster is back.

Exactly why do Georgians dislike Saakashvili? Is it because of the actions taken during the Russian invasion?

[Astatine]

Excellent thread. Saakashvili is GD's most valuable asset. For almost a decade now, UNM's presence has prevented any serious opposition party from challenging GD's position as Georgia's party of government. Saakashvili is completely toxic to the vast majority of Georgians, but he has a sufficiently sizeable following to remain in the picture purely on paper. As long as Saakashvili keeps sticking his head around the corner before every election, Ivanishvili will stay in power.

Our most iconic Dutch poster is back.

Exactly why do Georgians dislike Saakashvili? Is it because of the actions taken during the Russian invasion?

Partially, there is a larger number of reasons:

- Corruption/criminality: Saakashvili really did a lot to fight daily corruption (and still gets credit for it even by his opponents), but many members of UNM and close allies of Saakashvili (for instance former PM Vano Merabishvili) were actually convicted for various crimes ranging from corruption to abuse of office, bribery, budget mismanagement etc., and UNM tried to cover that up. UNM still claims that this is just a politically motivated witch hunt, but the majority doesn't buy that.

- Saakashvili is a criminal himself. He was convicted to three years in jail for various crimes, especially for oppressing political opponents and abuse of power. Plus, there is still the unsolved case of the mysterious death of former PM Zurab Zhvania, who served under Saakashvili. During Saakashvili's two terms there were multiple protests against increasing authoritarianism and political oppression - ironically, this is what the alternative (GD) is currently also doing (for instance by removing all powers from the office of the president and letting a weird council elect him/her), but to a much lesser extent and rather hidden, also thanks to some new media laws.

- Saakashvili's character makes him a very difficult person and many friends/family members find it really offensive to their national pride that he left Georgia and essentially continued his political career in Ukraine, even giving up his citizenship. Plus, his general behavior ever since is embarrassing. He actually tried to jump down a roof in Kyiv to not get pulled over by police, had personal feuds with Petro Poroshenko and yeah... He is simply not viewed as a representative statesman.

- His handling of Russia, many people consider him responsible for losing the remaining territories of Abkhazia & South Ossetia that Georgia was still controlling, way less people for worsening the relations with Russia.

[CumbrianLefty]

Aren't there still quite a few Stalin fans in Georgia? How do they tend to break, politically speaking?

[Astatine]

Aren't there still quite a few Stalin fans in Georgia? How do they tend to break, politically speaking?

Generally, Stalin is viewed quite favorably among many Georgians, likely due to simple national pride. I mean, a guy from such a small country turned out to be one of the world's most important historical figures in 20th century.

Nevertheless, Stalin isn't really an issue for many Georgians. The UNM government during the Saakashvili years actually tried to destalinize Georgia. Some years ago, a statue from his birthplace Gori was taken down. Although this created some controversy, hardly anyone cares in present days.

Most vocal Stalin opponents will very likely vote for UNM or EG, but I am not so sure about the most vocal supporters. I could see them voting for SLP, but didn't find any statements of Natelashvili either denouncing or supporting Stalin, so this is a wild guess. DMUG and APG would also be possible matches, as those parties are most vocal supporters of Russia, and Soviet nostalgists tend to have a more favorable opinion of Russia. Among the 50-something splinter parties running there might be some hardcore stalinists tho.

[Astatine]

One week to go, and meanwhile, Covid-19 cases are spiking in Georgia. The GD government imposed quite strict measures in spring, and Georgia was largely described as one of the countries with the best Corona management (active cases never peaked 400), but now, after lifting several measures, the number of cases is rapidly increasing with more than 11'000 cases as of today.

A partial reason for that could actually be in-person election rallies. I have heard from friends that at least APG did some campaign rallies recently with several hundred people attending, and that social distancing rules were widely ignored. Don't know about other parties. Bold speculation, but APG's polling numbers recently dropped compared to September (a new Ipsos poll has them at 1.2 %, including undecideds), so I wonder whether that might be correlated?

Anyways, the government wants the elections to take place as planned.

[bigic]

What about the "Strategy Builder" coalition? According to Europe Elects they are getting around 7% in the polls, and seems like it's a coalition of two UNM splinter parties

[Astatine]

What about the "Strategy Builder" coalition? According to Europe Elects they are getting around 7% in the polls, and seems like it's a coalition of two UNM splinter parties

I haven't seen them in polls before and was kind of surprised where this party spawned from, but just researched and they're basically the successor of the coalition "State of the people" that got ~3.5 % in 2016. They appear to be somewhere in between UNM and EG, so pro-European and moderate conservatives, but I really struggled to find detailed information. I could see it being another result of some older UNM feuds, as EG.

[seb_pard]

A have a few and stupid questions regarding Georgia.
1. Why support for EU/NATO membership have widespread support across Georgia? I know this relates to South Ossetia and Abkhazia but would like to know how Georgia got there.
2. Why EU/NATO membership is basically impossible and what are the repercussions of that in the medium/long-term?

[Astatine]

A have a few and stupid questions regarding Georgia.
1. Why support for EU/NATO membership have widespread support across Georgia? I know this relates to South Ossetia and Abkhazia but would like to know how Georgia got there.
2. Why EU/NATO membership is basically impossible and what are the repercussions of that in the medium/long-term?

1. Firstly, Georgia is a country with a very long history which included several struggles with independence. It was an own Kingdom for a long time, then occupied by the Ottomans, then by Russians and in 1918, Georgia became an independent democratic Republic. This was a matter of national pride, but after only 3 years, the Red Army took back control of Georgia. A vast majority of Georgians believe that Russia is a threat that wants to keep Georgia in its sphere of influence against Georgia's own will, and if Georgians resist, they will get punished. The scars of history left many people with the belief that Russia can simply not be trusted.

Which is not wrong, btw. In 1993, the break-away region of Abkhazia was a major battleground during the civil war and both Abkhaz separatists and Georgians agreed on a ceasefire in exchange for Georgian troops leaving the Abkhaz capital of Sokhumi. Russia was supposed to overlook the ceasefire, but on a September morning, Abkhaz separatists started to massively murder and torture ethnical Georgians, massacring several thousand of them, even more fled the region of Abkhazia that was predominantly Georgian before (...but that thanks to Stalin). Russia's role was to prevent something like that to happen and they didn't, which explains the strong negative sentiments of many Georgians towards Russia.

The 2008 War and that Russia actively tries to enforce South Ossetia's and Abkhazia's independence/integration into the Russian Federation is just the tip of the iceberg and not the reason for Georgia's orientation towards the West, but strengthened the country's goals.

After the tumultuos 90's and the Rose Revolution, Saakashvili actively presented Georgia as a staunch ally of the West to benefit economically (post Soviet Union was in a miserable economical state) and also politically - If Georgia is close to US/NATO and EU, Russia can't just undermine their sovereignty. Saakashvili's reform program is still widely respected, and that includes Western investment, a strongly pro-business atmosphere and a tough anti-corruption program. In comparison to most post Soviet countries, Georgia is quite advanced in those areas, also thanks to aid from the West (ofc also due to strategical reasons).

So yeah, considering that Russia is seen as extremely untrustworthy, EU and NATO are the only possibilities and enjoy widespread support.

2. Joining NATO could firstly fuel the conflict with Russia and lead to another escalation. There is still a strong Georgian minority in Southwest Abkhazia that is discriminated against by Abkhaz and Russian forces, and in case of an escalation of the conflict, who knows what would happen to them? Civil War flashbacks, and I can really say that the Sukhumi massacre really disturbed and traumatized many people. If you want to read more about it - here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhumi_massacre.

Secondly, there is still the issue with the country borders. Georgia doesn't fully control the territory it should according to international law, which as far as I know, is a reason to reject a membership application for both EU and NATO. So either Georgia would have to give up its claims for Abkhazia and South Ossetia, or it has to endure status quo.
Plus, some EU members such as France of Germany are rather skeptical of Georgia entering both organizations to not worsen their relations with Russia.

Georgia made some progress in their relations with both organizations such as the free-movement deal with EU, but apart from that, with the current gridlock surrounding Abkhazia and South Ossetia not improving, I sincerely doubt that a membership is possible in the next years - barring a major breakthrough, of course.

[Astatine]

Voter turnout is set to be increase a bit in comparison to 2016, as of 3 pm Georgian Time, 36.5 % of eligible citizens have voted (2016: 34.8 %). In 2016, turnout was at 49.5 % in the end so we might see a rise above the number of 50 %.

Meanwhile, just recently the campaign got more dirty than before, with GD accusing UNM of "planning a revolution" and some GD politicians voicing their support for a ban of UNM.

There will be exit polls I assume, but I don't know when. It might at 6 pm Georgian Time (in 30 mins) or 8 pm (in 2.5 h), I really couldn't find any information on that.

[Astatine]

First Exit Poll by Rustavi 2:

GD: 52.3 %
UNM: 25.3 %
EG: 4.2 %
Girchi: 3.5 %
Lelo: 2.6 %
Strategy: 2.4 %
APG: 2.3 %
GLP: 1.2 %
Citizens: 1.0 %
DMUG: <1.0 %

First Exit Poll by Imedi TV:

GD: 55.0 %
UNM: 23.0 %
EG: 3.0 %
Girchi: 3.0 %
Lelo: 3.0 %
Strategy: 3.0 %
APG: 3.0 %
GLP: 1.0 %
Citizens: 1.0 %
DMUG: 1.0 %

Third term for a GD majority government, and apart from the Strategy Builder Alliance, all parties that will likely or possibly enter Parliament were already mentioned in this thread, so no big surprises.

[Astatine]

The exit polls for the FPTP districts show mixed results, GD backed candidates lead in most, but especially in urban areas, the opposition alliance made some gains. Some seats will go to runoff, and I personally think that this will benefit GD since opposition voters will likely be disencouraged by the results now. It is almost certain that GD will form the next government...

...which Mikhail Saakashvili doesn't want to be part of: http://georgiatoday.ge/news/22860/Saakashvili%3A-I-Don%E2%80%99t-Want-Any-Position-in-the-Government

Lol, seriously, this is Sir-Woodbury-level of delusion. His party got 25 % of the votes, the incumbent government will all but certain have an absolute majority and still he sees the election as a clear mandate against Ivanishvili, whose party actually gained votes in comparison to 2016.