ID - Spry Strategies/Women's Libertarian Front (R?): Risch +26%
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October 20, 2021, 05:06:20 AM

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Author Topic: ID - Spry Strategies/Women's Libertarian Front (R?): Risch +26%  (Read 694 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« on: September 07, 2020, 11:36:59 AM »

http://womensliberationfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Statewide_Idaho_8.25.20-Tables_Only-Tables_Only.pdf

600 likely voters
MoE: 4%

N.B. Risch's lead is calculated based off non-rounded results (using decimals), so there is a slight discrepancy between the margin and the topline posted below.

Risch 53%
Jordan 28%
Another candidate 8%
Undecided 11%
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2020, 11:43:35 AM »



Confirmed tossup ! lol.
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Joe Manchin is a 🔥👜💩
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2020, 11:45:26 AM »


Thanks TossupBot!
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Pollster
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« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2020, 11:45:38 AM »

“Another candidate” and “someone else” are typically included by pollsters with an agenda to dilute the vote share of the incumbent, so Risch’s lead is probably slightly larger here than this poll implies.

That being said, I don’t believe Trump is at 53% strong approval here given the state’s significant Mormon population and Boise’s growth.
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S019
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« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2020, 11:46:57 AM »

While Risch will get way more than that, 53% has to be somewhat concerning in a deep red state like ID, even if most of the undecideds will break towards him. Still Safe R, though the margin could be somewhat underwhelming.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2020, 11:51:20 AM »

While Risch will get way more than that, 53% has to be somewhat concerning in a deep red state like ID, even if most of the undecideds will break towards him. Still Safe R, though the margin could be somewhat underwhelming.

Trump "only" got 59% in 2016 (Hillary Clinton received 27%). And Paulette Jordan-Risch's opponent this year-received 38% in her 2018 gubernatorial bid against Brad Little. So a result along the lines of 60-38% or something similar to that is very plausible.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2020, 06:54:47 PM »

tbf....
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2020, 09:28:42 PM »

Risch isn’t safe, but he’ll take the lead after the next Daines Bipartisan Bill Bump.


Heroes Act, that even John McCain would have told McConnell to pass is being blocked by Leader McConnell, any bill by the Rs that isn't dealing with the 1200 stimulus, isn't bipartisan
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2020, 07:51:17 PM »

New Poll: Idaho Senator by SPRY Strategies on 2020-09-01

Summary: D: 28%, R: 53%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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