CBS/YouGov - Biden +10

[Granite City]

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1302615037777981440?s=20

Just waiting for the sample size. No change from August 12-14.

2,433 LV per FiveThirtyEight

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hmvwY-EJIMWKveUWPTdpx_-JL6VTqCcx/view

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 2-4, 2020

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hmvwY-EJIMWKveUWPTdpx_-JL6VTqCcx/view

2433 likely voters
Changes with August 20-22 poll.

Biden 52% (n/c)
Trump 42% (n/c)
Someone else/third party 3% (-1%)
Not sure 3% (n/c)

[Wiz in Wis]

September 2-4, 2020

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hmvwY-EJIMWKveUWPTdpx_-JL6VTqCcx/view

2433 likely voters
Changes with August 20-22 poll.

Biden 52% (n/c)
Trump 42% (n/c)
Someone else/third party 3% (-1%)
Not sure 3% (n/c)

Impressive no bounce for Trump - WI is Solid R!

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

[BlueSwan]

Very nice.

Nice big sample size too!

[wbrocks67]

There's till time left of course, but the race has generally been the same since May/June. People keep saying there's going to be a tightening by Election Day, but there generally has not been much evidence of that.

[Person Man]

There’s still the debates...if Biden is still up by at least 5 at the end of them, he has this in the bag.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

Yeah, but just wait until THIS month’s jobs numbers bump...

[ProudModerate2]

Beautiful.
It would be lovely to see national, double-digit Biden leads again, over the next 2 weeks or so.

[Hnv1]

3 parties aren’t going to get 12% of the PV, so why aren’t the poll adjusting the final results?

[President Johnson]

There’s still the debates...if Biden is still up by at least 5 at the end of them, he has this in the bag.

If I were in Trump's shoes, I certainly wouldn't bank on the debates. Joe Biden is pretty good in one-on-one debates. If he confronts Trump similar as he responded the recent story about insulting troops and can still come over as empathetic and caring, he should be absolutely fine. The Trump campaign placed their hopes in so many things, Biden making gaffes, law & order, RNC bump etc., nothing really materialized. The Biden campaign obviously shouldn't take anything for granted, but they have every reason to be optimistic.

[DaleCooper]

There’s still the debates...if Biden is still up by at least 5 at the end of them, he has this in the bag.

If I were in Trump's shoes, I certainly wouldn't bank on the debates. Joe Biden is pretty good in one-on-one debates. If he confronts Trump similar as he responded the recent story about insulting troops and can still come over as empathetic and caring, he should be absolutely fine. The Trump campaign placed their hopes in so many things, Biden making gaffes, law & order, RNC bump etc., nothing really materialized. The Biden campaign obviously shouldn't take anything for granted, but they have every reason to be optimistic.

Polls indicate that, probably due to Trump/Republican rhetoric, clear majorities of independents and Republicans believe that Trump will beat Biden in the debates, which means that even if Trump does perform well, he isn't really exceeding expectations. Huge mistake on their part; Trump and Republicans' strategy should always be to lower public expectations for him.

[ExSky]

Garbage poll. Doesn’t take into account Lake Travis bump.

[Alben Barkley]

There’s still the debates...if Biden is still up by at least 5 at the end of them, he has this in the bag.

If I were in Trump's shoes, I certainly wouldn't bank on the debates. Joe Biden is pretty good in one-on-one debates. If he confronts Trump similar as he responded the recent story about insulting troops and can still come over as empathetic and caring, he should be absolutely fine. The Trump campaign placed their hopes in so many things, Biden making gaffes, law & order, RNC bump etc., nothing really materialized. The Biden campaign obviously shouldn't take anything for granted, but they have every reason to be optimistic.

Polls indicate that, probably due to Trump/Republican rhetoric, clear majorities of independents and Republicans believe that Trump will beat Biden in the debates, which means that even if Trump does perform well, he isn't really exceeding expectations. Huge mistake on their part; Trump and Republicans' strategy should always be to lower public expectations for him.

Yep. And they've lowered expectations for Biden so much that even a fairly average speech/debate performance comes across as an impressive win for him.

Really genius strategy!

[Rand]

Wait until the RNC bounce, then we'll see who's laughing.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

Isn't the GOP establishment supposed to jettison Trump since he is not turning things around by their labor day deadline? Remember that? Can we not even trust Republicans on this either?

[Alben Barkley]

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

Isn't the GOP establishment supposed to jettison Trump since he is not turning things around by their labor day deadline? Remember that? Can we not even trust Republicans on this either?

Well it's not impossible we'll start seeing Senate candidates in competitive races start to jump ship from here on out, which was really what they were supposedly gonna do. Not actually throw Trump off the ticket, just write him off as a lost cause and begin to distance themselves from him.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

Isn't the GOP establishment supposed to jettison Trump since he is not turning things around by their labor day deadline? Remember that? Can we not even trust Republicans on this either?

Well it's not impossible we'll start seeing Senate candidates in competitive races start to jump ship from here on out, which was really what they were supposedly gonna do. Not actually throw Trump off the ticket, just write him off as a lost cause and begin to distance themselves from him.

For most, it is too late for to regain credibility among Biden voters but they have until November 3rd to lose their tenuous credibility with Trump supporters. If they're not smart about how they do this, I'll bet most in competitive races are in for a very rude awakening about just how popular the "mainstream" GOP actually is.

[KaiserDave]

This must be the Goya bump, RNC bump, riot bump? Which one is it this time I'm losing track.

[DaleCooper]

This must be the Goya bump, RNC bump, riot bump? Which one is it this time I'm losing track.

The Pelosi hair salon bump

[Bojack Horseman]

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

Mark my words: he’ll come back to the 2020 board and say Trump didn’t lose, it was an alternative win.

[Kuumo]

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

Mark my words: he’ll come back to the 2020 board and say Trump didn’t lose, it was an alternative win.

If he considers a Trump loss an alternative win, good for him. That way both he and the Biden supporters can be happy after the election!

[Alben Barkley]

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

Mark my words: he’ll come back to the 2020 board and say Trump didn’t lose, it was an alternative win.

If he considers a Trump loss an alternative win, good for him. That way both he and the Biden supporters can be happy after the election!

I don’t want him to be happy though.

[Kuumo]

It's May dude. Chill out. Biden's lead will be gone by Labor Day.

Mark my words: he’ll come back to the 2020 board and say Trump didn’t lose, it was an alternative win.

If he considers a Trump loss an alternative win, good for him. That way both he and the Biden supporters can be happy after the election!

I don’t want him to be happy though.

Maybe he’ll be less annoying if he’s happier.

[AGA]

There’s still the debates...if Biden is still up by at least 5 at the end of them, he has this in the bag.

I don't know about that. If polls overestimate Biden by one point so that Biden wins the PV by 4, then Trump would still have a chance at the EC.