tagimaucia
Jr. Member
Posts: 570
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« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2020, 12:58:08 PM » |
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« Edited: September 06, 2020, 01:02:43 PM by tagimaucia »
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The 538 number is not a state polling average, it’s a highly modeled projection that involves demographics and economic numbers and national polls etc. To be fair, RCP probably isn’t a good baseline either, especially this year when they’re getting progressively more cherry-picky and ridiculous about their poll inclusion and exclusion choices.
Edit: That said, it looks like RCP excluded some polls that if they were included would have put the average at just about what the result was, so I guess you’re right. A great example of why not to trust RCP, I should have known better. I’m pretty sure Beto did actually over perform his polls though.
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