TX - University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News: Trump +2%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.scribd.com/document/474962250/DMN-UTTyler-2020-Poll-Codebook-2

August 28-September 2, 2020
901 likely voters
MoE: 3.26% (for likely voters)

Changes with June 29-July 7 poll.

Estimated results with leaners (may be some slight inaccuracies due to rounding; leaners not previously pushed):

Trump 49% (+6)
Biden 47% (-1)
(Hawkins 1% + Jorgensen 1% +Other 1%) (-1% from Other being at 4%; Hawkins and Jorgensen not listed in previous poll)
5% were undecided and not pushed in the last poll.

[Hope For A New Era]

+6?

I guess that's the convention bump.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Still not willing to say that Texas is anything but lean R, though it wouldn't absolutely shock me if it's one of the closest states this cycle.  

[Rand]

Just wait until Biden unleashes Antifa in Texas.

Then we’ll see who’s ahead.

[Gass3268]

This includes an LV shift too, Biden is up 1 with RVs.

[BaldEagle1991]

The media is totally sleeping on the idea that TX could go either way.

TX could be the WI of this cycle.

[WD]

Tossup. Also lmao @ Cornyn only getting 39%. Something tells me TX-Sen isn’t Likely R.

[Ferguson97]

Texas is a tossup

[New York En Marche!]

Biden also has a narrow lead over undecideds (35-31) with a full 15% of undecideds leaning towards Hawkins.

Also Democrats up by one on generic statehouse ballot!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Also it should be noted the sample is 66% white... which is whiter than 2016 and 2018...which means its actually kind of bad for Trump

[pppolitics]

Maybe I am missing something, but according to the link you've posted, Biden is +1 with both registered and likely voters.

RV:

Trump: 43%
Biden: 44%
Jorgenson: 2%
Hawkins: 1%
Undecided: 11%

LV:

Trump: 43%
Biden: 44%
Jorgenson: 2%
Hawkins: 1%
Undecided: 11%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Maybe I am missing something, but according to the link you've posted, Biden is +1 with both registered and likely voters.

RV:

Trump: 43%
Biden: 44%
Jorgenson: 2%
Hawkins: 1%
Undecided: 11%

LV:

Trump: 43%
Biden: 44%
Jorgenson: 2%
Hawkins: 1%
Undecided: 11%

No its definitely Trump +2 the formatting is messed up

[pppolitics]

Maybe I am missing something, but according to the link you've posted, Biden is +1 with both registered and likely voters.

RV:

Trump: 43%
Biden: 44%
Jorgenson: 2%
Hawkins: 1%
Undecided: 11%

LV:

Trump: 43%
Biden: 44%
Jorgenson: 2%
Hawkins: 1%
Undecided: 11%

No its definitely Trump +2 the formatting is messed up

Oh, I see it now.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Maybe I am missing something, but according to the link you've posted, Biden is +1 with both registered and likely voters.

RV:

Trump: 43%
Biden: 44%
Jorgenson: 2%
Hawkins: 1%
Undecided: 11%

LV:

Trump: 43%
Biden: 44%
Jorgenson: 2%
Hawkins: 1%
Undecided: 11%

When you look at the poll as opposed to the 538 listing, you'll see they also push undecided voters w.r.t. how they lean (the aggregator usually accounts for this, but for some reason they didn't this time). I incorporated that into the results posted here.

[VAR]

Trump approval: 40/38 (was 42/50)
Abbott approval: 54/33 (was 54/31)
Patrick approval: 42/45 (was 37/37)

Favorabilities:

Cruz: 44/37
Cornyn: 40/32
Hegar: 32/18
Harris: 42/42
Pence: 42/42

BLM: 40/37 (was 42/33)
Socialism: 15/49 (was 14/49)

[wbrocks67]

LV screens are weird in TX, especially with how polls underestimate Dems here, so Biden being +1 in RV is very solid.

[New York En Marche!]

Trump approval: 40/38 (was 42/50)
Abbott approval: 54/33 (was 54/31)
Patrick approval: 42/45 (was 37/37)

Favorabilities:

Cruz: 44/37
Cornyn: 40/32
Hegar: 32/18
Harris: 42/42
Pence: 42/42

BLM: 40/37 (was 42/33)
Socialism: 15/49 (was 14/49)

That's a lot of movement on the disapproval. I guess a more Trump-leaning sample might explain the swing.

[politicallefty]

That's right after the RNC. I'm thinking about taking a bet out on Texas because I'm really feeling bullish about Biden's chances. It might really fall.

[Devils30]

The media is totally sleeping on the idea that TX could go either way.

TX could be the WI of this cycle.

TX could go Biden but it won't be the tipping point. Any TX win includes AZ, WI, MI, PA, FL, GA, NC most likely. WI was the tipping point of 16.

[tagimaucia]

22% (!?) undecided on Trump’s approval seems like an extremely odd result.

[Skill and Chance]

The media is totally sleeping on the idea that TX could go either way.

TX could be the WI of this cycle.

TX could go Biden but it won't be the tipping point. Any TX win includes AZ, WI, MI, PA, FL, GA, NC most likely. WI was the tipping point of 16.

While it's not the most likely scenario, Clinton did about 3% better than her polling in Texas and Beto did about 4% better.  Clinton also narrowly beat her polling in Arizona and Nevada.  In 2016, Trump did about 3% better than his polling in PA, about 4% better in MI and about 7%(!) better in WI, and while he still won in the end, Evers underperformed by about 4%. 

If these polling errors are baked in, this becomes a plausible outcome for a narrow Biden win (say 3% in the PV):

*Florida polls were basically accurate and had Trump leading in 2016, but the big errors underestimating DeSantis and Scott in 2018 give me pause there.

[Brittain33]

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!

[Fusternino]

The media is totally sleeping on the idea that TX could go either way.

TX could be the WI of this cycle.

TX could go Biden but it won't be the tipping point. Any TX win includes AZ, WI, MI, PA, FL, GA, NC most likely. WI was the tipping point of 16.

While it's not the most likely scenario, Clinton did about 3% better than her polling in Texas and Beto did about 4% better.  Clinton also narrowly beat her polling in Arizona and Nevada.  In 2016, Trump did about 3% better than his polling in PA, about 4% better in MI and about 7%(!) better in WI, and while he still won in the end, Evers underperformed by about 4%. 

If these polling errors are baked in, this becomes a plausible outcome for a narrow Biden win (say 3% in the PV):

*Florida polls were basically accurate and had Trump leading in 2016, but the big errors underestimating DeSantis and Scott in 2018 give me pause there.

Why does this keep getting repeated?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/texas/

Trump beat his polling by ~1% in TX.

[Skill and Chance]

The media is totally sleeping on the idea that TX could go either way.

TX could be the WI of this cycle.

TX could go Biden but it won't be the tipping point. Any TX win includes AZ, WI, MI, PA, FL, GA, NC most likely. WI was the tipping point of 16.

While it's not the most likely scenario, Clinton did about 3% better than her polling in Texas and Beto did about 4% better.  Clinton also narrowly beat her polling in Arizona and Nevada.  In 2016, Trump did about 3% better than his polling in PA, about 4% better in MI and about 7%(!) better in WI, and while he still won in the end, Evers underperformed by about 4%. 

If these polling errors are baked in, this becomes a plausible outcome for a narrow Biden win (say 3% in the PV):

*Florida polls were basically accurate and had Trump leading in 2016, but the big errors underestimating DeSantis and Scott in 2018 give me pause there.

Why does this keep getting repeated?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/texas/

Trump beat his polling by ~1% in TX.

I was using RCP

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_clinton-5694.html

Trump underperformed by about 3%.

[Fusternino]

The media is totally sleeping on the idea that TX could go either way.

TX could be the WI of this cycle.

TX could go Biden but it won't be the tipping point. Any TX win includes AZ, WI, MI, PA, FL, GA, NC most likely. WI was the tipping point of 16.

While it's not the most likely scenario, Clinton did about 3% better than her polling in Texas and Beto did about 4% better.  Clinton also narrowly beat her polling in Arizona and Nevada.  In 2016, Trump did about 3% better than his polling in PA, about 4% better in MI and about 7%(!) better in WI, and while he still won in the end, Evers underperformed by about 4%. 

If these polling errors are baked in, this becomes a plausible outcome for a narrow Biden win (say 3% in the PV):

*Florida polls were basically accurate and had Trump leading in 2016, but the big errors underestimating DeSantis and Scott in 2018 give me pause there.

Why does this keep getting repeated?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/texas/

Trump beat his polling by ~1% in TX.

I was using RCP

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_clinton-5694.html

Trump underperformed by about 3%.

Isn't there a consensus that the 538 aggregate is superior?