If Reagan stayed a Democrat

[Alben Barkley]

Well let’s stop arguing about why he left the Democrats and just say for the sake of argument that he stayed one, with the party more or less the same regardless.

In that case, the 20th century could have looked very, very different, and the world today different as a result. Reagan was extremely charismatic, along with FDR easily one of the two most transformative and important presidents of that century, and I think that had he been a Democrat, history would have played out VERY differently. He I think was almost bound to end up as president one way or another at some point.

Let’s say that he remains a prominent Democrat throughout the 60s, endorsing LBJ instead of Goldwater and giving a powerful speech on his behalf that attracts national attention. Let’s say instead of challenging Pat Brown in 1966, he wins the California Senate election in 1968 as a Democrat. He then runs for president in 1976, assuming everything else more or less plays out the same, and has a good chance of winning the nomination and the presidency. The real question now is if s—t hits the fan as it did for Carter in real life. Does Reagan have better relations with Congress? (Likely, especially if he was a senator in this timeline.) Do things like the energy crisis and oil crisis play out similarly? Does Reagan’s charisma overcome these problems anyway, allowing him to be re-elected in 1980? If he loses, who’s it to? Probably not another arch-conservative Goldwater type like himself in OTL. Maybe Bush or Dole or something. That alone changes history.

Honestly I’ve thought about this quite a bit, it could go a number of interesting ways. Not sure if anyone’s done a timeline for it before.

[Alben Barkley]

The problem with that idea is why would Reagan giving a powerful speech in favor of LBJ bring him much attention in 1964? LBJ was so completely favored both in the primaries and the general election that no speech in favor of him, no matter how good, would bring attention to the orator. You'd either need to have Reagan do something meaningful in 1960 or 1968 if you want to have him remain a Democrat and rise to political prominence. Perhaps something like his "A Time for Choosing" speech but done in support of JFK in the 1960 Democratic primaries? Then perhaps Reagan defeats Kuchel in the 1962 Senate race? (Uness you think he'd try an intraparty contest against Brown in the gubernatorial contest?) Alternatively, Brown appoints Reagan instead of Sallinger to the Senate in 1964 after Engle dies, setting up an contest between two former SAG presidents in the full term 1964 election when he faces George Murphy. Assuming Reagan beats Murphy, a likely butterfly is that The Candidate is never made as that movie was reportedly inspired by Tummey's defeat of Murphy in 1970.

A senatorial career for Reagan sets up the possibility of a Carter/Reagan (or Reagan/Carter) ticket in 1976.

Yeah, the more I muse on this, if you want an interesting Democratic Reagan timeline, having him come to political prominence four years earlier than in OTL with a pro-Kennedy speech in 1960 is probably the way to go.

Hmm yeah, interesting points. A point of divergence in 1960 might make more sense and be more interesting. Let’s say his campaigning for JFK actually is credited with delivering CA to him. Then he wins the governorship over Nixon in 1962 instead of Pat Brown. Then we could have an interesting situation where Reagan might even run as a Democrat as early as 1968, and end up facing Nixon again for the presidency.