TX Data for Progress: Biden +3

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I legit don't get why so many republicans are acting like everything is just fine, like it is just objectively stupid to do so even if you think that way. If Trump loses he can blame idiots like sirwoodbury and sergi for complacency.

[vitoNova]

If in the unlikely event Texas goes blue within the next 3 presidential cycles, you will witness a far more vicious backlash against hispanic-Americans by the right.

[BigSerg]

Is this a Democratic internal?

One way or the other, remember that Beto throughout 2018 barely led any poll and still got within two percent. Some, or most, polls showed a close race back then, but Cruz led in almost any poll, even if only by small margins. This is why assuming Biden will do even better makes perfect sense. I still believe it won't flip blue, but it's definitely within the range of possibilities.

Texas Youth Power Alliance/Dataprogress (D)

[ExSky]

Keep telling ya'll that Texas is a Safe D state now, and I get laughed at. You wont be laughing at me come elction night when Biden is winning Collin and Denton by double digits.

I don’t know if you’re joking or not but I really think Joe is winning Collin. Not denton though

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Keep telling ya'll that Texas is a Safe D state now, and I get laughed at. You wont be laughing at me come elction night when Biden is winning Collin and Denton by double digits.

I don’t know if you’re joking or not but I really think Joe is winning Collin. Not denton though

I also think Biden has an excellent shot at Collin too, unironically.

[Dr. Arch]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Joe polling a LOT better than Beto did in 2018? If so, keep in mind that Beto came within 2% of flipping the state.

[MaconRepublican]

LOL! Total garbage poll from a Dem hack firm.

[MaconRepublican]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Joe polling a LOT better than Beto did in 2018? If so, keep in mind that Beto came within 2% of flipping the state.

That was a DEM wave year with a popular Dem candidate. No way is this going to be like 2018. Trump will carry Texas by 6 or more.

[Alben Barkley]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Joe polling a LOT better than Beto did in 2018? If so, keep in mind that Beto came within 2% of flipping the state.

That was a DEM wave year with a popular Dem candidate. No way is this going to be like 2018. Trump will carry Texas by 6 or more.

Almost all signs are this is going to be a bigger Dem wave year than 2018 and Texas is trending D at a rapid pace. Biden is popular, much moreso than Trump. And Data for Progress was the most accurate pollster in the primaries.

You are in for a nasty shock in November if you keep deluding yourself like this. But honestly, there isn’t enough misery in the world I could wish on someone who supports Donald “F—k dead US soldiers” Trump, so I really hope you stay deluded and cry your little eyes out on election night.

[DaleCooper]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Joe polling a LOT better than Beto did in 2018? If so, keep in mind that Beto came within 2% of flipping the state.

That was a DEM wave year with a popular Dem candidate. No way is this going to be like 2018. Trump will carry Texas by 6 or more.

Only 6? I think Trump cracks 100% in Texas.

[ShamDam]

Winning Texas would mean that the Democrats could lose Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania -- and while I doubt that those two outcomes will coincide this year, it could be a hint of a future realignment.

[Skye]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Joe polling a LOT better than Beto did in 2018? If so, keep in mind that Beto came within 2% of flipping the state.

That was a DEM wave year with a popular Dem candidate. No way is this going to be like 2018. Trump will carry Texas by 6 or more.

Well, Trump is currently trailing Biden by around 7 points. This poll is seems friendly to Biden, but to say this can't be anything like 2018 is a bit extreme.

[tagimaucia]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Joe polling a LOT better than Beto did in 2018? If so, keep in mind that Beto came within 2% of flipping the state.

That was a DEM wave year with a popular Dem candidate. No way is this going to be like 2018. Trump will carry Texas by 6 or more.

Yeah, things are so different now. Its like night and day.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/2018/

[Horus]

Trump will narrowly win Texas but I have no doubt Democrats will pick up at least three congressional seats here, if not four or five.

[YE]

I see D4P is the new PPP and is now a "Dem hack firm" and therefore must be off. I mean maybe you could make the argument D4P is relatively unproven in generals but it's nailed nearly every primary aside from MA-01 it's polled.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It would be great if Siegel and Oliver won. Maybe then the dem establishment will stop screeching about how progressives are "unelectable"

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It would be great if Siegel and Oliver won. Maybe then the dem establishment will stop screeching about how progressives are "unelectable"

That may be why Siegel, like Eastman two years ago, is not on the Red to Blue list.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If in the unlikely event Texas goes blue within the next 3 presidential cycles, you will witness a far more vicious backlash against hispanic-Americans by the right.

Not necessarily. There is currently a significantly bigger gap between the Republican ceiling and floor for Hispanic voters and the Republican ceiling and floor for black voters. Responding to narrowly blue Texas as part of a Biden landslide by going all-in on anti-Hispanic sentiment would be much more likely to backfire than what they've been doing in Georgia and even that does not appear to be working out for them.

[pbrower2a]

Keep telling ya'll that Texas is a Safe D state now, and I get laughed at. You wont be laughing at me come election night when Biden is winning Collin and Denton by double digits.

COVID-19 has started to ravage Texas. Smart people have at least some elementary understanding of statistical inference, and mass death is one way in which to force people to change their ways.

Texas has been close, and movement of this kind is rare this late. +3 for Biden? It does not show in the Senate race, so there might be no funky selection of the electorate. Campaigns on the verge of collapse can falter even worse toward the end.

MAGA -- Make Americans Grieve Again.  

[ProudModerate2]

I'm still skeptical, but would love to see it happen.

[Hope For A New Era]

Judis and Teixeira when they see this poll

[ExSky]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Joe polling a LOT better than Beto did in 2018? If so, keep in mind that Beto came within 2% of flipping the state.

That was a DEM wave year with a popular Dem candidate. No way is this going to be like 2018. Trump will carry Texas by 6 or more.

Well, Trump is currently trailing Biden by around 7 points. This poll is seems friendly to Biden, but to say this can't be anything like 2018 is a bit extreme.

The GCB was +8.6 in 2018 right? Seems plausible for the general election to be around that

[Dr. Arch]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Joe polling a LOT better than Beto did in 2018? If so, keep in mind that Beto came within 2% of flipping the state.

That was a DEM wave year with a popular Dem candidate. No way is this going to be like 2018. Trump will carry Texas by 6 or more.

Well, Trump is currently trailing Biden by around 7 points. This poll is seems friendly to Biden, but to say this can't be anything like 2018 is a bit extreme.

The GCB was +8.6 in 2018 right? Seems plausible for the general election to be around that

Assuming Joe is at around +7-+8 and some extra 2-years' worth of D trending in Texas, yes.

[Skill and Chance]

Tossup. Imagine if TX voted to the left of FL.

I thought this was possible a year ago.  Didn't think it would be possible with Biden, but FL looks like it could be slipping away and the SW states are all getting better for him.

[wbrocks67]

Most legit polls have had a tossup for TX and this continues the trend. Also Data for Progress are not some D hack internal polling firm...

I doubt Biden will lead by 3, but it's 100% a tossup