TX Data for Progress: Biden +3
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  TX Data for Progress: Biden +3
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Author Topic: TX Data for Progress: Biden +3  (Read 2782 times)
krb08
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« on: September 04, 2020, 12:43:36 PM »

https://twitter.com/dataprogress/status/1301938275498823680?s=21

Biden 48, Trump 45

Also Cornyn +6 (Cornyn 46, Hegar 40)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2020, 12:45:14 PM »
« Edited: September 04, 2020, 12:51:44 PM by Gass3268 »

Very nice! Best pollster during the primaries. If the average is less than 2.5 points on election day, Biden will win.
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YE
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« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2020, 12:46:28 PM »

Definitely not there yet.
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Beet
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« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2020, 12:47:35 PM »

Beto never led in a single poll in 2018.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html#polls
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redjohn
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« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2020, 12:48:24 PM »

If the last couple weeks of the campaign are strong for Biden, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he won Texas. It's quickly trending in that direction and it is a battleground state; TX isn't a part of a mythical red wall that is impenetrable. It can vote D.

Also, TX is not likely R. It's probably Lean R simply because of its voting history, closer to tilt than likely.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2020, 12:52:02 PM »
« Edited: September 04, 2020, 01:06:00 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/Texas%20Poll%20Press%20Release.pdf

Conducted in part thanks to the Texas Youth Power Alliance, so probably worth putting a (D) qualifier on this poll even if you don't apply that to D4P polls anyway
August 20-25, 2020
2295 likely voters
MoE: 2%

Changes with January 16-21 poll. Note: the last D4P poll was independent of the Texas Youth Power Alliance.

Biden 48% (+8)
Trump 45% (-9)
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2020, 12:52:11 PM »

Tossup. Imagine if TX voted to the left of FL.
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Woody
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« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2020, 12:58:55 PM »

Interesting, but this is probably an outlier, so I will ignore this poll.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2020, 01:02:45 PM »

Interesting, but this is probably an outlier, so I will ignore this poll.

Fair enough, as long as you ignore everything coming from Trafalgar as well.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2020, 01:02:54 PM »

Its happening, the polls are still great for Biden
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soundchaser
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« Reply #10 on: September 04, 2020, 01:09:43 PM »

Also, TX is not likely R. It's probably Lean R simply because of its voting history, closer to tilt than likely.

Texas is a tossup and has been for months.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: September 04, 2020, 01:10:10 PM »

The pdf has been updated with more comprehensive results.

Undecided 8% (+5% from last D4P likely voters poll, although as I've mentioned elsewhere, that one was independent of this one's sponsor)
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2020, 01:11:26 PM »

Very nice! Best pollster during the primaries. If the average is less than 2.5 points on election day, Biden will win.

The RCP average in Texas now is also heavily biased to Trump. They don't include the last few polls that Biden led Trump, like PPP and this one, yet they include Trafalgar's ridiculous R+6 one.

Trump probably needs to be polling about 3% or more ahead of Biden to be a better-than even odds of winning the state.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2020, 01:12:07 PM »

Again, not gonna speculate which way polls will be off, but definately a good poll for Biden
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2020, 01:13:10 PM »


WRONG

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/19/beto-orourke-leads-cruz-new-poll-texas-senate-race/
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WD
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« Reply #15 on: September 04, 2020, 01:15:55 PM »

Reminder that Charlie Cook thinks TX is Lean R.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #16 on: September 04, 2020, 01:17:18 PM »

Of the competitive states that are unlikely to be the tipping point - GA, IA, NC, OH, and TX - it's safe to say that Texas is the one I want most. Texas flipping completely rewrites what is possible in future elections.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #17 on: September 04, 2020, 01:28:05 PM »

It goes without saying that an R loss in TX will mean a bloodbath and transformation of the Republican Party at all levels.
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krb08
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« Reply #18 on: September 04, 2020, 01:32:23 PM »

Keep telling ya'll that Texas is a Safe D state now, and I get laughed at. You wont be laughing at me come elction night when Biden is winning Collin and Denton by double digits.

Could you please point out a single reply calling Texas Safe D or even Likely D for me? I think it's Lean R but could definitely flip on a good night for Biden.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #19 on: September 04, 2020, 01:34:36 PM »

It goes without saying that an R loss in TX will mean a bloodbath and transformation of the Republican Party at all levels.

Did you see what they did after they got destroyed in 2008 and 2012? They just got even more radical and kicked all the moderates out.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #20 on: September 04, 2020, 01:35:57 PM »

TX voting to the left of MN would be funny ...
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #21 on: September 04, 2020, 01:44:21 PM »

It goes without saying that an R loss in TX will mean a bloodbath and transformation of the Republican Party at all levels.

Did you see what they did after they got destroyed in 2008 and 2012? They just got even more radical and kicked all the moderates out.

The GOP didnt get destroyed in 2012
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
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« Reply #22 on: September 04, 2020, 01:46:31 PM »

It goes without saying that an R loss in TX will mean a bloodbath and transformation of the Republican Party at all levels.

Did you see what they did after they got destroyed in 2008 and 2012? They just got even more radical and kicked all the moderates out.

The GOP didnt get destroyed in 2012

Yes, you did. Romney did better than just about every Republican Senate candidate, and Romney still lost by over 100 Electoral Votes.
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BigSerg
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« Reply #23 on: September 04, 2020, 01:50:21 PM »

Hahahahaha

D Poll = Biden +3 = Trash
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President Johnson
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« Reply #24 on: September 04, 2020, 01:50:31 PM »

Is this a Democratic internal?

One way or the other, remember that Beto throughout 2018 barely led any poll and still got within two percent. Some, or most, polls showed a close race back then, but Cruz led in almost any poll, even if only by small margins. This is why assuming Biden will do even better makes perfect sense. I still believe it won't flip blue, but it's definitely within the range of possibilities.
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