MN: Harper Polling (R) - Biden +3

[neostassenite31]

Can we please get some credible polls here so we can put the very unlikely possibility of Trump flipping this state to rest?

This is a reiteration, but we can expect at an absolute minimum SurveyUSA and Mason-Dixon within the next 2-3 weeks for MN given trends in prior cycles. Results from these two pollsters combined should settle this debate much more definitively

[SenatorCouzens]

Minnesota is a tossup.

If we had a poll showing SC at Trump +3, I wouldn’t call that a tossup.

Trump won South Carolina by 14 points. Clinton won Minnesota won by 1.5 points.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

August 30 to September 1
501 LV
MOE: +/- 4.38%

Biden - 48% (-2)
Trump - 45% (+3)
Undecided - 4% (-4)

Changes from a May poll which doesn't appear to have been released (not on FiveThirtyEight at least) but it's referenced in the released.

https://www.scribd.com/document/474637138/MN-SEN-General-Election-Key-Findings-Memo-Harper-Polling

Then there probably wasn’t a May poll.

There was, but the sampling period and sample size were not in the release. 538 only adds polls for which the sampling dates are supplied.

No, I just don’t buy that they polled this race in May.

So you think they're actually faking their numbers, or that they polled slightly earlier but had those numbers ready for a private release in May? The former prospect is quite a bold claim to entertain.

Actually, the former is what I meant, but the latter is possible given they polled MN-02 as well. I just don’t see why it would get better for Trump.

538 has presumably got in touch and are now listing the May poll as a May 26-28 survey of 510 likely voters, presumably with a similar margin of error.

[Brittain33]

Minnesota is a tossup.

If we had a poll showing SC at Trump +3, I wouldn’t call that a tossup.

Trump won South Carolina by 14 points. Clinton won Minnesota won by 1.5 points.

The U.S. is swinging 5-8 points to the left from 2016 to 2020, making Minnesota and South Carolina equally distant from the 50-50 mark.

Any other argument that MN is special and is a toss-up based on a D+3 in an R internal would rely on a magical concept of "momentum" where Trump rising (possibly) to Biden +3 means that he can keep coasting up and over Biden's numbers, which is not how elections work.

In reality, both Minnesota and South Carolina have shown themselves to have low ceilings for one of the parties.

[SenatorCouzens]

Minnesota is a tossup.

If we had a poll showing SC at Trump +3, I wouldn’t call that a tossup.

Trump won South Carolina by 14 points. Clinton won Minnesota won by 1.5 points.

The U.S. is swinging 5-8 points to the left from 2016 to 2020, making Minnesota and South Carolina equally distant from the 50-50 mark.

Any other argument that MN is special and is a toss-up based on a D+3 in an R internal would rely on a magical concept of "momentum" where Trump rising (possibly) to Biden +3 means that he can keep coasting up and over Biden's numbers, which is not how elections work.

In reality, both Minnesota and South Carolina have shown themselves to have low ceilings for one of the parties.

Ah yes if you think it's going to be a mini landslide for Biden and the race is locked in with a big Biden lead similar to Obama '08, then I guess maybe South Carolina could be as competitive as Minnesota.

I think a big Biden win is possible, but nothing is locked and I think looking at the 2016 map for the incumbent is at least as reasonable as looking at a myriad of polls. And I don't think the 1.5 2016 margin in Minnesota can be set aside because of polls, especially in light of 2016 polls.

[Umengus]

Can we please get some credible polls here so we can put the very unlikely possibility of Trump flipping this state to rest?

This is a reiteration, but we can expect at an absolute minimum SurveyUSA and Mason-Dixon within the next 2-3 weeks for MN given trends in prior cycles. Results from these two pollsters combined should settle this debate much more definitively

Susa was very bad in 2016...

[neostassenite31]

Can we please get some credible polls here so we can put the very unlikely possibility of Trump flipping this state to rest?

This is a reiteration, but we can expect at an absolute minimum SurveyUSA and Mason-Dixon within the next 2-3 weeks for MN given trends in prior cycles. Results from these two pollsters combined should settle this debate much more definitively

Susa was very bad in 2016...

You could argue that most pollsters were pretty bad in 2016 I suppose. I don't believe they weighed for education by race in 2016, but they started doing it during the next cycle for sure. Indeed ultimately the only judge of accuracy is the final election results. 

[Brittain33]

Minnesota is a tossup.

If we had a poll showing SC at Trump +3, I wouldn’t call that a tossup.

Trump won South Carolina by 14 points. Clinton won Minnesota won by 1.5 points.

The U.S. is swinging 5-8 points to the left from 2016 to 2020, making Minnesota and South Carolina equally distant from the 50-50 mark.

Any other argument that MN is special and is a toss-up based on a D+3 in an R internal would rely on a magical concept of "momentum" where Trump rising (possibly) to Biden +3 means that he can keep coasting up and over Biden's numbers, which is not how elections work.

In reality, both Minnesota and South Carolina have shown themselves to have low ceilings for one of the parties.

Ah yes if you think it's going to be a mini landslide for Biden and the race is locked in with a big Biden lead similar to Obama '08, then I guess maybe South Carolina could be as competitive as Minnesota.

I think a big Biden win is possible, but nothing is locked and I think looking at the 2016 map for the incumbent is at least as reasonable as looking at a myriad of polls. And I don't think the 1.5 2016 margin in Minnesota can be set aside because of polls, especially in light of 2016 polls.

Let’s be clear, I agree MN is competitive. What I challenge is calling it a tossup.

[MaconRepublican]

MN is Tossup/Tilt D, but Trump can still win it seeing as polls are already tightening and it's only September.

[WD]

MN is Tossup/Tilt D, but Trump can still win it seeing as polls are already tightening and it's only September.

MN isn’t flipping in this environment, I could definitely see it being competitive in 2024, but probably not this year.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

MN is Tossup/Tilt D, but Trump can still win it seeing as polls are already tightening and it's only September.

The polls HAVEN'T tightened. Have you literally ignored the past 3 days of polling? Biden still leads in most reputable polls by 7-10 points.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Can we please get some credible polls here so we can put the very unlikely possibility of Trump flipping this state to rest?

This is a reiteration, but we can expect at an absolute minimum SurveyUSA and Mason-Dixon within the next 2-3 weeks for MN given trends in prior cycles. Results from these two pollsters combined should settle this debate much more definitively

Well, for now at least. This state seems to have become an obsession for this forum lately.

[Hammy]

Biden is melting. Trump will win Minnesota.

You mean like he was supposed to in 2016 when Clinton was only at 41% at this point?

Well, for now at least. This state seems to have become an obsession for this forum lately.

Trump sees himself as the second coming of Nixon's 1972 campaign (perhaps it is in the number of laws it's breaking but that's about it) and he's been obsessed with Minnesota since even 2016--even getting it and Wisconsin confused, which he said he won for the first time since Nixon.