MN: Harper Polling (R) - Biden +3
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Author Topic: MN: Harper Polling (R) - Biden +3  (Read 2252 times)
Granite City
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« on: September 03, 2020, 06:15:17 AM »
« edited: September 03, 2020, 06:37:51 AM by Granite City »
August 30 to September 1
501 LV
MOE: +/- 4.38%

Biden - 48% (-2)
Trump - 45% (+3)
Undecided - 4% (-4)

Changes from a May poll which doesn't appear to have been released (not on FiveThirtyEight at least) but it's referenced in the released.

https://www.scribd.com/document/474637138/MN-SEN-General-Election-Key-Findings-Memo-Harper-Polling
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2020, 06:17:55 AM »
Minnesota is a tossup.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2020, 06:19:12 AM »
Is the pollster any good? Pretty terrible result for Biden.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2020, 06:19:12 AM »

This is a Republican internal
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2020, 06:20:09 AM »

That's good to know. Not that bad then.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2020, 06:28:07 AM »
Maybe it should be noted in the OP that this is *literally* a poll done for Jason Lewis's campaign. And it still finds Biden up 3.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2020, 06:30:03 AM »
Awful
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Granite City
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« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2020, 06:34:52 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 03, 2020, 06:28:07 AM
Maybe it should be noted in the OP that this is *literally* a poll done for Jason Lewis's campaign. And it still finds Biden up 3.

Will do
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2020, 06:56:50 AM »
Hopefully all these R polls of Minnesota will motivate one of the B+ or A tier pollsters (not Emerson) to conduct a poll here.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2020, 07:02:37 AM »
Quote from: DaleCooper on September 03, 2020, 06:56:50 AM
Hopefully all these R polls of Minnesota will motivate one of the B+ or A tier pollsters (not Emerson) to conduct a poll here.

Yeah, we haven't gotten anything HQ since July's Fox News poll.

Though Morning Consult showing 7/8 seems about right.
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Red Wall
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« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2020, 07:03:12 AM »
Biden is melting. Trump will win Minnesota.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2020, 07:06:50 AM »
I suspect this is similar to the outlandish D internals in that it's released strategically to maximize attention from donors. Thankfully, though, Biden is investing in Minnesota (as he should) so it won't be a 2016 repeat in that sense.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #12 on: September 03, 2020, 07:07:35 AM »
Quote from: Red Wall on September 03, 2020, 07:03:12 AM
Biden is melting. Trump will win Minnesota.

Trump may have a shot at Minnesota, but an R-internal that still shows Biden up by over a point or two probably isn't the best metric.

(Although Biden literally melting is a rather amusing but horrifying mental image).  
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2020, 07:08:44 AM »
Quote from: Red Wall on September 03, 2020, 07:03:12 AM
Biden is melting. Trump will win Minnesota.
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kph14
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« Reply #14 on: September 03, 2020, 07:09:57 AM »
This is an internal poll commissioned by the Lewis campaign. I thought Republicans on this forum are wary of internals?
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Buzz
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« Reply #15 on: September 03, 2020, 07:27:07 AM »
I remember Harper being decent in 2016, but obviously take R internal with grain of salt.  I still don’t really think Trump should invest here over Michigan.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #16 on: September 03, 2020, 07:28:47 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on September 03, 2020, 07:27:07 AM
I remember Harper being decent in 2016, but obviously take R internal with grain of salt.  I still don’t really think Trump should invest here over Michigan.

I can actually see an argument for that.  IMO, Minnesota has more room for a "rurals canceling out the metros"-type situation than Michigan (barring a 2016-type situation). 
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #17 on: September 03, 2020, 07:30:13 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on September 03, 2020, 07:27:07 AM
I remember Harper being decent in 2016, but obviously take R internal with grain of salt.  I still don’t really think Trump should invest here over Michigan.

The educational attainment in MN makes it a losing battle for Trump, especially since Biden is investing in the state, unlike Hillary in 2016.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: September 03, 2020, 07:32:15 AM »

This is an R pollster, and Trump is still not leading in it
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VAR
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« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2020, 08:00:30 AM »
Quote from: Granite City on September 03, 2020, 06:15:17 AM
August 30 to September 1
501 LV
MOE: +/- 4.38%

Biden - 48% (-2)
Trump - 45% (+3)
Undecided - 4% (-4)

Changes from a May poll which doesn't appear to have been released (not on FiveThirtyEight at least) but it's referenced in the released.

https://www.scribd.com/document/474637138/MN-SEN-General-Election-Key-Findings-Memo-Harper-Polling

Then there probably wasn’t a May poll.
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #20 on: September 03, 2020, 08:25:13 AM »
Harper is the actual pollster of Jason Lewis, so unless his campaign wants to run on completely partisan data, these numbers should be what they're actually seeing (albeit maybe a best case scenario).
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Chips
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« Reply #21 on: September 03, 2020, 08:28:56 AM »
Biden+4 is my prediction for the state. Sounds about right.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #22 on: September 03, 2020, 08:30:25 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on September 03, 2020, 08:00:30 AM
Quote from: Granite City on September 03, 2020, 06:15:17 AM
August 30 to September 1
501 LV
MOE: +/- 4.38%

Biden - 48% (-2)
Trump - 45% (+3)
Undecided - 4% (-4)

Changes from a May poll which doesn't appear to have been released (not on FiveThirtyEight at least) but it's referenced in the released.

https://www.scribd.com/document/474637138/MN-SEN-General-Election-Key-Findings-Memo-Harper-Polling

Then there probably wasn’t a May poll.


There was, but the sampling period and sample size were not in the release. 538 only adds polls for which the sampling dates are supplied.
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #23 on: September 03, 2020, 08:31:19 AM »
Quote from: DaleCooper on September 03, 2020, 06:56:50 AM
Hopefully all these R polls of Minnesota will motivate one of the B+ or A tier pollsters (not Emerson) to conduct a poll here.

You're going to (almost certainly) get both SurveyUSA and Mason Dixon within the next three weeks, so rest assured.
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Badger
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« Reply #24 on: September 03, 2020, 08:36:09 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on September 03, 2020, 07:27:07 AM
I remember Harper being decent in 2016, but obviously take R internal with grain of salt.  I still don’t really think Trump should invest here over Michigan.

Hasn't the Trump campaign already triaged Michigan?
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