Who was the last democrat to win southern whites?

[Adam Griffin]

Unlikely, since non-white voters were probably above 25% of the GA electorate, and would be breaking extremely lopsided to Carter (more than a 60 point margin for sure). GA was within 15% in 1980.

I have to reject this claim. GA SoS records race by voter registration and turnout: non-whites didn't reach 25% of the electorate in GA until 2004. Unless a ton of non-whites were identifying as white when they registered (which back then would've been very unlikely), there's no argument for them being anywhere close to 25% in 1980.

Even before this particular metric, I was also skeptical that Carter didn't win a majority of whites in the less racially progressive states of SC & AL in 1976. After all, these county maps (AL, SC) basically mean that unless a large segment of white voters resided in this handful of "ancestrally-GOP" counties in 1976, that the overwhelmingly rural white counties that all went for Carter indicate a trend.

[Adam Griffin]

Unlikely, since non-white voters were probably above 25% of the GA electorate, and would be breaking extremely lopsided to Carter (more than a 60 point margin for sure). GA was within 15% in 1980.

I have to reject this claim. GA SoS records race by voter registration and turnout: non-whites didn't reach 25% of turnout in GA until 2004. Unless a ton of non-whites were identifying as white when they registered, there's no argument for them being anywhere close to 25% in 1980.

Even before this particular metric, I am also skeptical that Carter didn't win a majority of whites in the less racially progressive states of SC & AL in 1976. After all, these county maps (AL, SC) basically mean that unless a large segment of white voters resided in these "ancestrally-GOP" counties in 1976, that the

I get that they can do it for registration, but how does the SoS track turnout by race? Surely this violates the secret ballot?

As best I know, VRA states are required to track turnout by race (it's not difficult if you're tracking voter registration by race, of course), but are not required to make it publicly available (I believe only GA & LA publicly furnish this data). The same concept is how random candidates and orgs can buy voter file access and tell who all has voted in which election(s) - you can even see who voted in which party's primaries. In the US, which elections you vote in is broadly a matter of public record (nobody can see who you voted for, of course).

If you doubt me, all you have to do is go here: https://sos.ga.gov/index.php/Elections/voter_turn_out_by_demographics . This shows racial turnout by precinct, gender and county for every major election since 1996.

[Adam Griffin]

Unlikely, since non-white voters were probably above 25% of the GA electorate, and would be breaking extremely lopsided to Carter (more than a 60 point margin for sure). GA was within 15% in 1980.

I have to reject this claim. GA SoS records race by voter registration and turnout: non-whites didn't reach 25% of the electorate in GA until 2004. Unless a ton of non-whites were identifying as white when they registered (which back then would've been very unlikely), there's no argument for them being anywhere close to 25% in 1980.

Even before this particular metric, I was also skeptical that Carter didn't win a majority of whites in the less racially progressive states of SC & AL in 1976. After all, these county maps (AL, SC) basically mean that unless a large segment of white voters resided in this handful of "ancestrally-GOP" counties in 1976, that the overwhelmingly rural white counties that all went for Carter indicate a trend.

Is your argument that Carter won the white vote in Georgia in 1980?

I'm bumping this forward because I'm still seeking clarification on this.

No, my argument was about what was explicitly mentioned.

I don't think Carter won GA whites in 1980 but it was likely very close & I suppose depends on how many black voters went for Anderson. If patterns then were in line with more contemporary patterns, then it's quite possible that 3P candidates got 5% of the white vote (and next to no black vote). I think it's safe to say that Carter got at least 45% of the white vote in 1980.