Who was the last democrat to win southern whites?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 03:12:58 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Who was the last democrat to win southern whites?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Who was the last democrat to win southern whites?  (Read 4725 times)
ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed
KYtrader
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 463


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 04, 2020, 11:47:02 AM »

I'm pretty sure Carter lose the white south in 1976. So did LBJ. So my best guess is probably Kennedy.
Logged
Statilius the Epicurean
Thersites
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,596
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2020, 01:01:52 PM »

Nixon ran pretty well in the South in 1960, in some states doing better than Eisenhower. How many Southern black voters were enfranchised at the time? Were there any which contributed to Kennedy's wins at all in e.g. a state like South Carolina where he beat Nixon by less than 10,000 votes?
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,080
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2020, 07:37:11 PM »

Quite possibly Truman or Stevenson
Logged
Redban
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,931


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2020, 09:55:54 PM »

You sure Carter lost the white vote in the South? He took a bunch of those Southern states.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2020, 10:15:57 PM »

You sure Carter lost the white vote in the South? He took a bunch of those Southern states.

Black voters provided the margin of victory for Carter in several of the states that he won that year, such as Texas, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi. There was a thread posted on here (I can't find it right now), in which it was concluded that the Southern white vote almost certainly went for Gerald Ford that year (as did the national white vote). Carter did very well among rural whites, but urban and suburban whites throughout the South voted strongly for Ford.
Logged
Wazza [INACTIVE]
Wazza1901
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,927
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2020, 11:13:20 PM »

LBJ received 6,096,989 to Barry Goldwater's 5,993,384 in the 11 Confederate states (Obviously not including the 210,732 votes in Alabama that went to the unpledged Democratic slate). Considering that the vast majority of the voting populations in Southern states in 1964 were white, the answer is most likely (narrowly) Lyndon Johnson.

Of course we could throw the non confederate Southern states like WV, OK and KY in which case Johnson would be safely winning the Southern White vote.
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,475
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 05, 2020, 12:12:39 PM »

LBJ received 6,096,989 to Barry Goldwater's 5,993,384 in the 11 Confederate states (Obviously not including the 210,732 votes in Alabama that went to the unpledged Democratic slate). Considering that the vast majority of the voting populations in Southern states in 1964 were white, the answer is most likely (narrowly) Lyndon Johnson.

Of course we could throw the non confederate Southern states like WV, OK and KY in which case Johnson would be safely winning the Southern White vote.

If Johnson carried the South by no more than 1%, Goldwater carried the Southern white vote.  There were some AAs voting, especially in outer Southern states such as Tennessee, and they obviously backed LBJ with >90%.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 05, 2020, 12:39:08 PM »

LBJ received 6,096,989 to Barry Goldwater's 5,993,384 in the 11 Confederate states (Obviously not including the 210,732 votes in Alabama that went to the unpledged Democratic slate). Considering that the vast majority of the voting populations in Southern states in 1964 were white, the answer is most likely (narrowly) Lyndon Johnson.

Of course we could throw the non confederate Southern states like WV, OK and KY in which case Johnson would be safely winning the Southern White vote.

If Johnson carried the South by no more than 1%, Goldwater carried the Southern white vote.  There were some AAs voting, especially in outer Southern states such as Tennessee, and they obviously backed LBJ with >90%.


Agreed. And I've posted before a report by the Southern Regional Council (https://www.crmvet.org/docs/6411_src_election.pdf), indicating that Johnson would not have carried Florida, Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, and possibly North Carolina without black voters. If Johnson couldn't, then Carter almost certainly didn't 12 years later, when black registration and turnout had significantly increased, in addition to the overall demographic trends during that period.
Logged
DabbingSanta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,679
United States
P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2020, 05:35:35 PM »


This might be the old thread you were referencing earlier:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172787.0

If Carter or Johnson didn't win the white vote, who was the last person to win it? Stevenson?  I didn't realize non-white voters made such a huge difference in the South fifty years ago!
Logged
Indy Texas
independentTX
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,258
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: -3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 05, 2020, 05:46:53 PM »

You sure Carter lost the white vote in the South? He took a bunch of those Southern states.

In the aggregate, he almost certainly lost Southern whites.

In individual states, I would venture to guess he only won the white vote in Arkansas and Georgia.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 05, 2020, 06:00:28 PM »


This might be the old thread you were referencing earlier:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172787.0

If Carter or Johnson didn't win the white vote, who was the last person to win it? Stevenson?  I didn't realize non-white voters made such a huge difference in the South fifty years ago!

Probably if we're looking at the old Confederate South, although it would have been a narrow margin, given that Eisenhower carried Texas, Virginia, Florida, and Louisiana (in 1956) by double digits, and also won Tennessee twice-although his margin there could very well have been provided by black voters, who weren't disenfranchised there to the extent they were in the Deep South, and who were more Republican overall prior to the Civil Rights Act. If you look at the entire South, including Maryland, Kentucky, Delaware, and West Virginia, then the white vote almost certainly went to Eisenhower in 1956.
Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,678


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 05, 2020, 09:59:36 PM »


This might be the old thread you were referencing earlier:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172787.0

If Carter or Johnson didn't win the white vote, who was the last person to win it? Stevenson?  I didn't realize non-white voters made such a huge difference in the South fifty years ago!

1964 was the Freedom Summer and the year with massive efforts by SNCC and other activist groups to register as many black voters as possible even under the Jim Crow regime. Large efforts to do things like train locals to pass the literacy tests. 1964 was also the first election after the 24th Amendment struck down all poll taxes in the US.

Even though 1964 was before the Voting Rights Act of 1965, it'd still feature the highest level of black voting in the South since probably the 1890s.
Logged
darklordoftech
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,391
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 05, 2020, 10:18:55 PM »

Did Truman or Thurmond win southern whites in 1948?
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 06, 2020, 12:36:11 AM »

Did Truman or Thurmond win southern whites in 1948?

I think Truman obtained a plurality, since he won Georgia with more than 60% of the vote and won in Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia by double digits (although failing to obtain an absolute majority in these three states). Truman also carried Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas with more than 60% of the vote, and handily beat Dewey in Kentucky and West Virginia. Delaware and Maryland went to Dewey, but only by narrow margins (and Maryland with a plurality). Truman also finished ahead of Dewey in Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina (he was not on the ballot in Alabama, like Johnson in 1964).
Logged
morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,018
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 06, 2020, 05:16:57 PM »


This might be the old thread you were referencing earlier:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172787.0

If Carter or Johnson didn't win the white vote, who was the last person to win it? Stevenson?  I didn't realize non-white voters made such a huge difference in the South fifty years ago!

I can guarantee carter must have won the white vote in SOME southern states. I mean come on, no way he didn't do so in Georgia at least
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 06, 2020, 08:59:34 PM »


This might be the old thread you were referencing earlier:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172787.0

If Carter or Johnson didn't win the white vote, who was the last person to win it? Stevenson?  I didn't realize non-white voters made such a huge difference in the South fifty years ago!

I can guarantee carter must have won the white vote in SOME southern states. I mean come on, no way he didn't do so in Georgia at least

Carter definitely won the white vote in Arkansas, Georgia, and West Virginia, and he almost certainly won it in Kentucky also. It's also highly likely that Carter won whites in Tennessee.
Logged
Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,610
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -1.57

P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 06, 2020, 09:57:15 PM »

Maybe Bill Clinton in some states like Arkansas? I haven't done my research so I don't know, but that's my main guess.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 06, 2020, 10:16:10 PM »

Maybe Bill Clinton in some states like Arkansas? I haven't done my research so I don't know, but that's my main guess.

I've read somewhere that Clinton won a plurality of the white vote in his home state in both 1992 and 1996. Clinton also won the white vote in West Virginia both times-the last two elections in which that state, the whitest state in the South, voted Democratic. It's also possible that he may have won whites in Delaware (he carried all three counties in the state in 1996). In all other Southern States carried by Clinton, black voters provided the margin of victory-in Louisiana, for example, Clinton got around 40% of the white vote in 1996, and Kentucky only went to him by less than 1% that year.
Logged
Wazza [INACTIVE]
Wazza1901
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,927
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 07, 2020, 01:02:25 AM »

Huh, I didn't realise the Black electorate was that significant in the South prior to the VRA.

Eisenhower did beat Stevenson in the 11 Confederate States by 97127 votes  (4212324 to 4115215) in 1956. In 1952 however, Stevenson beat Eisenhower by 314620 votes (4428163 to 4113543). I'm not knowledgeable on the Black electorate in the South during the 50s apart from that it was under-representative and that on the national level Black voters backed Stevenson twice. Though either way the answer to OP's question would be Stevenson.
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,002
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 12, 2020, 01:51:59 PM »

This isn't related to the question specifically, but this brings up an interesting divide between the broad category of "Southern Whites."  For example, I would imagine that in 1976, Carter won a majority of "Southern Whites who had historically voted Democratic," considering Ford won a ton of suburban areas and did best in the most transplant-heavy states, such as Virginia, Florida and Texas.  (A huge exception here is Mississippi, which makes sense, as the most conservative former Democrats who were decidedly less populist were the first ones to jump ship.)
Logged
Indy Texas
independentTX
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,258
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: -3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 12, 2020, 11:07:42 PM »

This isn't related to the question specifically, but this brings up an interesting divide between the broad category of "Southern Whites."  For example, I would imagine that in 1976, Carter won a majority of "Southern Whites who had historically voted Democratic," considering Ford won a ton of suburban areas and did best in the most transplant-heavy states, such as Virginia, Florida and Texas.  (A huge exception here is Mississippi, which makes sense, as the most conservative former Democrats who were decidedly less populist were the first ones to jump ship.)

The tendency to credit Northern migrants with being the source of new Republican votes in the South is overestimated.

Urban and suburban Southern whites who were middle- or upper-class started voting Republican for president in the 1950s and 1960s, even if their family had been living in the South for 200 years.

In Texas, from the Mexican era up until the late 20th century, most people who moved there were from the South (especially Tennessee, Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi). Dallas-Fort Worth was the first area to start attracting Northerners in sizable numbers in the 1950s to work for companies like Texas Instruments. Houston was a common destination for people from the Rust Belt in the 1980s.
Logged
ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed
KYtrader
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 463


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 13, 2020, 08:47:14 AM »



I don't know if this helps, but I had previously compiled a map of when was the last time the white vote in each state went Democratic

I think Carter might have won whites in Georgia in 1980.
Logged
Alcibiades
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,851
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -6.96

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 13, 2020, 10:05:09 AM »



I don't know if this helps, but I had previously compiled a map of when was the last time the white vote in each state went Democratic

Very interesting. Maryland and New Jersey are especially surprising.
Logged
ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed
KYtrader
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 463


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 13, 2020, 01:29:49 PM »



I don't know if this helps, but I had previously compiled a map of when was the last time the white vote in each state went Democratic

Very interesting. Maryland and New Jersey are especially surprising.

Shouldn't West Virginia and New Jersey be 96 instead of 92? Clinton won WV easily in 96, and just barely won NJ in 92, where he definitely lost whites. If he didn't win whites in NJ in 96, it would have to be 64.
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,002
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 14, 2020, 11:25:15 AM »

This isn't related to the question specifically, but this brings up an interesting divide between the broad category of "Southern Whites."  For example, I would imagine that in 1976, Carter won a majority of "Southern Whites who had historically voted Democratic," considering Ford won a ton of suburban areas and did best in the most transplant-heavy states, such as Virginia, Florida and Texas.  (A huge exception here is Mississippi, which makes sense, as the most conservative former Democrats who were decidedly less populist were the first ones to jump ship.)

The tendency to credit Northern migrants with being the source of new Republican votes in the South is overestimated.

Urban and suburban Southern whites who were middle- or upper-class started voting Republican for president in the 1950s and 1960s, even if their family had been living in the South for 200 years.

In Texas, from the Mexican era up until the late 20th century, most people who moved there were from the South (especially Tennessee, Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi). Dallas-Fort Worth was the first area to start attracting Northerners in sizable numbers in the 1950s to work for companies like Texas Instruments. Houston was a common destination for people from the Rust Belt in the 1980s.

I wasn’t saying that transplants made the difference, merely that Ford’s best states had the highest respective impacts of suburban voting + transplants + more conservative Democratic Parties to begin with, and hypothesizing that, say, your average White JFK 1960 voter in the South might have gone for Carter still.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 11 queries.