Who was the last democrat to win southern whites?

[Calthrina950]

You sure Carter lost the white vote in the South? He took a bunch of those Southern states.

Black voters provided the margin of victory for Carter in several of the states that he won that year, such as Texas, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi. There was a thread posted on here (I can't find it right now), in which it was concluded that the Southern white vote almost certainly went for Gerald Ford that year (as did the national white vote). Carter did very well among rural whites, but urban and suburban whites throughout the South voted strongly for Ford.

[Calthrina950]

LBJ received 6,096,989 to Barry Goldwater's 5,993,384 in the 11 Confederate states (Obviously not including the 210,732 votes in Alabama that went to the unpledged Democratic slate). Considering that the vast majority of the voting populations in Southern states in 1964 were white, the answer is most likely (narrowly) Lyndon Johnson.

Of course we could throw the non confederate Southern states like WV, OK and KY in which case Johnson would be safely winning the Southern White vote.

If Johnson carried the South by no more than 1%, Goldwater carried the Southern white vote.  There were some AAs voting, especially in outer Southern states such as Tennessee, and they obviously backed LBJ with >90%.

Agreed. And I've posted before a report by the Southern Regional Council (https://www.crmvet.org/docs/6411_src_election.pdf), indicating that Johnson would not have carried Florida, Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, and possibly North Carolina without black voters. If Johnson couldn't, then Carter almost certainly didn't 12 years later, when black registration and turnout had significantly increased, in addition to the overall demographic trends during that period.

[Calthrina950]

(snip)

This might be the old thread you were referencing earlier:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172787.0

If Carter or Johnson didn't win the white vote, who was the last person to win it? Stevenson?  I didn't realize non-white voters made such a huge difference in the South fifty years ago!

Probably if we're looking at the old Confederate South, although it would have been a narrow margin, given that Eisenhower carried Texas, Virginia, Florida, and Louisiana (in 1956) by double digits, and also won Tennessee twice-although his margin there could very well have been provided by black voters, who weren't disenfranchised there to the extent they were in the Deep South, and who were more Republican overall prior to the Civil Rights Act. If you look at the entire South, including Maryland, Kentucky, Delaware, and West Virginia, then the white vote almost certainly went to Eisenhower in 1956.

[Calthrina950]

Did Truman or Thurmond win southern whites in 1948?

I think Truman obtained a plurality, since he won Georgia with more than 60% of the vote and won in Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia by double digits (although failing to obtain an absolute majority in these three states). Truman also carried Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas with more than 60% of the vote, and handily beat Dewey in Kentucky and West Virginia. Delaware and Maryland went to Dewey, but only by narrow margins (and Maryland with a plurality). Truman also finished ahead of Dewey in Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina (he was not on the ballot in Alabama, like Johnson in 1964).

[Calthrina950]

(snip)

This might be the old thread you were referencing earlier:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172787.0

If Carter or Johnson didn't win the white vote, who was the last person to win it? Stevenson?  I didn't realize non-white voters made such a huge difference in the South fifty years ago!

I can guarantee carter must have won the white vote in SOME southern states. I mean come on, no way he didn't do so in Georgia at least

Carter definitely won the white vote in Arkansas, Georgia, and West Virginia, and he almost certainly won it in Kentucky also. It's also highly likely that Carter won whites in Tennessee.

[Calthrina950]

Maybe Bill Clinton in some states like Arkansas? I haven't done my research so I don't know, but that's my main guess.

I've read somewhere that Clinton won a plurality of the white vote in his home state in both 1992 and 1996. Clinton also won the white vote in West Virginia both times-the last two elections in which that state, the whitest state in the South, voted Democratic. It's also possible that he may have won whites in Delaware (he carried all three counties in the state in 1996). In all other Southern States carried by Clinton, black voters provided the margin of victory-in Louisiana, for example, Clinton got around 40% of the white vote in 1996, and Kentucky only went to him by less than 1% that year.

[Calthrina950]

Unlikely, since non-white voters were probably above 25% of the GA electorate, and would be breaking extremely lopsided to Carter (more than a 60 point margin for sure). GA was within 15% in 1980.

I have to reject this claim. GA SoS records race by voter registration and turnout: non-whites didn't reach 25% of the electorate in GA until 2004. Unless a ton of non-whites were identifying as white when they registered (which back then would've been very unlikely), there's no argument for them being anywhere close to 25% in 1980.

Even before this particular metric, I was also skeptical that Carter didn't win a majority of whites in the less racially progressive states of SC & AL in 1976. After all, these county maps (AL, SC) basically mean that unless a large segment of white voters resided in this handful of "ancestrally-GOP" counties in 1976, that the overwhelmingly rural white counties that all went for Carter indicate a trend.

Is your argument that Carter won the white vote in Georgia in 1980?

[Calthrina950]

Unlikely, since non-white voters were probably above 25% of the GA electorate, and would be breaking extremely lopsided to Carter (more than a 60 point margin for sure). GA was within 15% in 1980.

I have to reject this claim. GA SoS records race by voter registration and turnout: non-whites didn't reach 25% of the electorate in GA until 2004. Unless a ton of non-whites were identifying as white when they registered (which back then would've been very unlikely), there's no argument for them being anywhere close to 25% in 1980.

Even before this particular metric, I was also skeptical that Carter didn't win a majority of whites in the less racially progressive states of SC & AL in 1976. After all, these county maps (AL, SC) basically mean that unless a large segment of white voters resided in this handful of "ancestrally-GOP" counties in 1976, that the overwhelmingly rural white counties that all went for Carter indicate a trend.

Is your argument that Carter won the white vote in Georgia in 1980?

I'm bumping this forward because I'm still seeking clarification on this.

[Calthrina950]

Unlikely, since non-white voters were probably above 25% of the GA electorate, and would be breaking extremely lopsided to Carter (more than a 60 point margin for sure). GA was within 15% in 1980.

I have to reject this claim. GA SoS records race by voter registration and turnout: non-whites didn't reach 25% of the electorate in GA until 2004. Unless a ton of non-whites were identifying as white when they registered (which back then would've been very unlikely), there's no argument for them being anywhere close to 25% in 1980.

Even before this particular metric, I was also skeptical that Carter didn't win a majority of whites in the less racially progressive states of SC & AL in 1976. After all, these county maps (AL, SC) basically mean that unless a large segment of white voters resided in this handful of "ancestrally-GOP" counties in 1976, that the overwhelmingly rural white counties that all went for Carter indicate a trend.

Is your argument that Carter won the white vote in Georgia in 1980?

I'm bumping this forward because I'm still seeking clarification on this.

No, my argument was about what was explicitly mentioned.

I don't think Carter won GA whites in 1980 but it was likely very close & I suppose depends on how many black voters went for Anderson. If patterns then were in line with more contemporary patterns, then it's quite possible that 3P candidates got 5% of the white vote (and next to no black vote). I think it's safe to say that Carter got at least 45% of the white vote in 1980.

This would seem to be plausible.