NC: (Monmouth) Biden +2

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

No real shocker here.  The winner of North Carolina at the Prezi level will likely take the state by <4-5 points.  

Also interesting that the high-turnout and low-turnout models yield the same results.  Do any of my learned Atlas peeps want to explain what that means?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Hot take: If the race narrows from a Biden blowout to just a solid Biden win (5-7%), Trump will narrowly take NC, even as GA and TX move left (GA voting to the left of NC this year while TX votes close to it). NC is probably the purest tossup at the presidential level this year.

With states like TX and GA, you can pretty well pinpoint exact demographic or socioeconomic trends.  

With NC, the reasoning behind its competitiveness seems a lot more complex.  There seem to be a lot more moving parts.  It's not just, for instance, exclusively senior, suburb, or minority driven as with other states.  

In addition, you can pretty confidently say that TX, GA, MN, etc. etc. are moving in one direction and not liable to snap back hard.  I can't necessarily say that for NC come 2024 -- at least not yet. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Genuinely surprised they found a Biden lead in NC at the same time as their Biden +4 (or less with LV models) poll in PA.  Biden should seriously pursue a Sunbelt "backdoor" in the EC. 

He should invest in North Carolina

Does anybody have any data on his campaign's spending in NC (if at all)?