NC: (Monmouth) Biden +2
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 08:49:25 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  NC: (Monmouth) Biden +2
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: NC: (Monmouth) Biden +2  (Read 1977 times)
Buzz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,186


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 03, 2020, 10:02:13 AM »

Logged
DaleCooper
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,852


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2020, 10:03:16 AM »

Fine numbers for Biden but terrible for Cunningham.
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,362
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2020, 10:03:58 AM »

No real shocker here.  The winner of North Carolina at the Prezi level will likely take the state by <4-5 points.  

Also interesting that the high-turnout and low-turnout models yield the same results.  Do any of my learned Atlas peeps want to explain what that means?
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,150


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2020, 10:04:01 AM »

The presidential topline is much less surprising than the fact that Biden is running slightly ahead of Cunningham.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2020, 10:04:45 AM »

NC is a Tossup state.

Cunningham wins I believe but is one of the vulnerable Democrats in 2026---Cawthorn could defeat him in a Harris midterm.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2020, 10:04:58 AM »
« Edited: September 03, 2020, 10:10:43 AM by Gass3268 »

First time in a long time Cunningham has run behind Biden.

Good two days of polls here for Biden in NC. Important with VBM starting tomorrow.
Logged
Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,203
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2020, 10:05:08 AM »

Monmouth has been getting some pretty R-friendly numbers recently for some reason.
Logged
Buzz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,186


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2020, 10:09:36 AM »

Monmouth has been getting some pretty R-friendly numbers recently for some reason.
this poll is not R friendly lol
Logged
Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,047


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2020, 10:11:07 AM »

Hot take: If the race narrows from a Biden blowout to just a solid Biden win (5-7%), Trump will narrowly take NC, even as GA and TX move left (GA voting to the left of NC this year while TX votes close to it). NC is probably the purest tossup at the presidential level this year.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2020, 10:11:37 AM »

Monmouth has been getting some pretty R-friendly numbers recently for some reason.
this poll is not R friendly lol

Yeah, I’m pretty pleased with this in addition to Fox yesterday.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,354


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2020, 10:11:50 AM »

Monmouth has been getting some pretty R-friendly numbers recently for some reason.
this poll is not R friendly lol

It's really a mixed bag.  The presidential margin looks reasonable.  The Senate margin is better for Tillis than most other polls, and the gubernatorial margin is considerably better for Forest.
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,362
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2020, 10:13:11 AM »

Hot take: If the race narrows from a Biden blowout to just a solid Biden win (5-7%), Trump will narrowly take NC, even as GA and TX move left (GA voting to the left of NC this year while TX votes close to it). NC is probably the purest tossup at the presidential level this year.

With states like TX and GA, you can pretty well pinpoint exact demographic or socioeconomic trends.  

With NC, the reasoning behind its competitiveness seems a lot more complex.  There seem to be a lot more moving parts.  It's not just, for instance, exclusively senior, suburb, or minority driven as with other states.  

In addition, you can pretty confidently say that TX, GA, MN, etc. etc. are moving in one direction and not liable to snap back hard.  I can't necessarily say that for NC come 2024 -- at least not yet. 
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 03, 2020, 10:13:35 AM »

Monmouth has been getting some pretty R-friendly numbers recently for some reason.
this poll is not R friendly lol

This would line up to be about Biden +8. The PA would be about... Biden +7. It's weird to see these numbers that's where we are.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2020, 10:16:03 AM »

August 29-September 1, 2020
401 registered voters (401 voters accounted for in each likely voter model)
MoE: 4.9%

Toplines supplied here with leaners.

Among registered voters:
Biden 47%
Trump 45%
(Jorgensen (L) 3%, Hawkins (G) <1%, Blankenship (C) <1%, Other candidate <1%) = Other 5%
No one 1%
Undecided 3%

The first likely voter result in the above tweet is for a model with higher turnout than in 2016, and the second for a model with lower turnout than in 2016.
Logged
ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
New Frontier
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,230
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 03, 2020, 10:16:55 AM »

Good poll for Biden, too close for comfort for Cunningham.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 03, 2020, 10:17:50 AM »

Monmouth has been getting some pretty R-friendly numbers recently for some reason.

Agreed. This one is close to the topline we've been seeing for Biden in NC, +2-4, but that Senate # is... odd. Doesn't line up with anything else we're really seeing.

Also I have a hard time buying that Trump has an = net favorability rating. He may have an = approval, but favorability is usually lower...
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 03, 2020, 10:18:42 AM »

Monmouth has been getting some pretty R-friendly numbers recently for some reason.
this poll is not R friendly lol

It's really a mixed bag.  The presidential margin looks reasonable.  The Senate margin is better for Tillis than most other polls, and the gubernatorial margin is considerably better for Forest.

In the Senate race, they’re reflecting the same trend other pollsters like ECU have shown: Cunningham isn’t outperforming Biden by the kind of margin he used to a few weeks/months ago.

Cunningham (D) 44.1% (-0.2)
Tillis (R, inc.) 43.6% (+4.1)

The gubernatorial margin is also in line with ECU (Cooper +10; Aug. 29-30), Redfield and Wilton (Cooper +11; Aug. 16-19), PPP (Cooper +11; July 23-24) and several other polls.

This is not a R-friendly poll.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 03, 2020, 10:21:16 AM »

Monmouth has been getting some pretty R-friendly numbers recently for some reason.
this poll is not R friendly lol

It's really a mixed bag.  The presidential margin looks reasonable.  The Senate margin is better for Tillis than most other polls, and the gubernatorial margin is considerably better for Forest.

In the Senate race, they’re reflecting the same trend other pollsters like ECU have shown: Cunningham isn’t outperforming Biden by the kind of margin he used to a few weeks/months ago.

Cunningham (D) 44.1% (-0.2)
Tillis (R, inc.) 43.6% (+4.1)

The gubernatorial margin is also in line with ECU (Cooper +10; Aug. 29-30), Redfield and Wilton (Cooper +11; Aug. 16-19), PPP (Cooper +11; July 23-24) and several other polls.

This is not a R-friendly poll.

And yet there's also Fox News where Tillis is still underperforming Trump.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 03, 2020, 10:22:48 AM »

Genuinely surprised they found a Biden lead in NC at the same time as their Biden +4 (or less with LV models) poll in PA.  Biden should seriously pursue a Sunbelt "backdoor" in the EC. 
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2020, 10:24:11 AM »

Does anyone know why Monmouth has always had such small sample sizes? I mean hell we get congressional polls that have bigger samples.
Logged
SaneDemocrat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,339


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 03, 2020, 10:26:10 AM »

Genuinely surprised they found a Biden lead in NC at the same time as their Biden +4 (or less with LV models) poll in PA.  Biden should seriously pursue a Sunbelt "backdoor" in the EC. 
He should invest in North Carolina
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,362
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 03, 2020, 10:28:41 AM »

Genuinely surprised they found a Biden lead in NC at the same time as their Biden +4 (or less with LV models) poll in PA.  Biden should seriously pursue a Sunbelt "backdoor" in the EC. 
He should invest in North Carolina

Does anybody have any data on his campaign's spending in NC (if at all)?
Logged
Da2017
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,475
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 03, 2020, 10:35:04 AM »

Nice to see Biden in the lead. I like to see 50 or above.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,588
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 03, 2020, 10:37:58 AM »

No real shocker here.  The winner of North Carolina at the Prezi level will likely take the state by <4-5 points.  

Also interesting that the high-turnout and low-turnout models yield the same results.  Do any of my learned Atlas peeps want to explain what that means?

Pre-2016, higher turnout models almost always favored Democrats and lower turnout models almost always favored Republicans. These were also borne out in elections, with Democrats tending to do better in higher-turnout elections. As it happens, the Romney-Clinton demographic and the broader GOP '16 House-Dem '18 House swing voters are disproportionately white, affluent, and suburban, which are an extremely high-turnout demographic. Since 2016, we've started to see the high turnout and low turnout models begin to converge as Democrats improve with high turnout demographics.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 03, 2020, 10:40:10 AM »

Fine numbers for Biden but terrible for Cunningham.

Fortunately he’s running against an incumbent whose numbers are consistently worse.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 13 queries.