No real shocker here. The winner of North Carolina at the Prezi level will likely take the state by <4-5 points.
Also interesting that the high-turnout and low-turnout models yield the same results. Do any of my learned Atlas peeps want to explain what that means?
Pre-2016, higher turnout models almost always favored Democrats and lower turnout models almost always favored Republicans. These were also borne out in elections, with Democrats tending to do better in higher-turnout elections. As it happens, the Romney-Clinton demographic and the broader GOP '16 House-Dem '18 House swing voters are disproportionately white, affluent, and suburban, which are an extremely high-turnout demographic. Since 2016, we've started to see the high turnout and low turnout models begin to converge as Democrats improve with high turnout demographics.
