2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread (user search)
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  2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread  (Read 167892 times)
ExSky
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Posts: 543


« on: October 09, 2020, 10:07:48 AM »

I think we are at the point where we start getting 2 million or more new votes a day.

Starting Tuesday I’d expect it. Texas begins early voting and I know many other states begin
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ExSky
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 543


« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2020, 07:49:22 PM »

Alright bitches, turns out I will probably be too busy with work to vote tomorrow or Wednesday as promised, but Thursday or Friday, I’ll come back here to report my first vote in a Texas general election.

Biden +1. Only 214,980 votes to go to turn TX blue!
214979 Wink
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ExSky
Jr. Member
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Posts: 543


« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2020, 11:05:58 AM »

I'm in line for early voting in McKinney and it's an hour long wait. This is insane.

Is that a DEM or GOP area?

Trump won Collin county 56-39. Most of the voters in line today were super diverse and young. Usually McKinney and Frisco are pretty conservative.

While Trump won by 17, Cruz only beat Beto by around 6. McKinney is a perfect example of the rapid suburban change.
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ExSky
Jr. Member
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Posts: 543


« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2020, 11:45:26 AM »

I'm in line for early voting in McKinney and it's an hour long wait. This is insane.

you can vote by mail, vote on election day or wait a few days... LOL

I mean, I understand the concept of your answer, but two things can happen at once. You could wait till another day to vote, sure, or vote a different way... but at the same time, there's no reason why there isn't more sites in MANY states right now to vote. One drop box in a whole county is insane. Just like in GA, there should've been more remote sites to early vote at.


It's a fundamental Republican philosophy to make it harder for people to vote.  This is why Election Day still isn't a national holiday...it's the ONLY reason they're railing against mail-in ballots...it's why there are hours long lines to vote...it's why they purge voter rolls...it's why they decrease polling sites and limit the ways in which we can cast our ballots.

They know that they're quickly losing demographics and they're grasping at whatever threads they can.

Eventually the only way they'll be able to stay in power is by outright cheating.

It should be quite difficult for people to vote, and suffrage in general needs to be scaled back a lot. Many people who vote should not be allowed to.

I don't give a rat's ass about Yellowhammer, but one person recommend this post--Jessica.  Which is interesting because just 5 days ago Jessica posted this



Voting should be by mail in every state. I am a conservative but I believe everyone should have a right to vote and it should be easy!

Please explain yourself

What else do you expect from a republican. They will act nice when they have to and then suppress when they need to.
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ExSky
Jr. Member
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Posts: 543


« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2020, 01:21:04 PM »

I am sorry...Just that maybe the founders had a point is all I was saying.

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
1h
MI #earlyvote update posted. Michigan passes 1 million voted, representing 21.9% of the *total* 2016 vote

Nationally, at least 11.4 million people have voted in the 2020 general election https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

You probably think Hitler “had a point” too
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ExSky
Jr. Member
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Posts: 543


« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2020, 08:32:50 PM »

It’s extremely bad news Dallas County couldn’t even surpass 2016.

Not really, atleast not for democrats. Might be a terrible sign for Republicans. Dallas County in 2016 had around 15k more in turnout day 1 compared to Day 1 in 2018 and Beto outdid Hillary by 20k in the total count by the end.

I’d be willing to bet this number is caused by the republicans in Dallas county not turning out.
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ExSky
Jr. Member
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Posts: 543


« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2020, 08:59:58 PM »


If that's just today's in-person numbers and not VBM, then Jesus!

42,402 early votes from today + 32,089 VBM ballots (not including today) = ~74,491 early votes

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth) (On first day of early voting)
2012:   52,225       5.4% of registered voters
2016:   65,156       6.1%
2018:   62,971       5.6%
~2020: 74,491       6.2%
Doesn’t seem like a huge increase.

agreed all these videos of "long lines" is the same videos and stuff we saw in 2016


Turnout doesn’t need to be miraculous. It looks good enough to make a large impact. What’s more important is then voting shift we are undergoing.

Bush +25 (2004

McCain +12 (2008)

Romney +17 (2012)

Trump + 8.5 (2016)

Beto O’Rourke +0.7 (2018). This county has not voted for a democrat for president since 1964 and will in all likelihood vote Biden

It is not so much the turnout in these areas. It is the massive exodus from the GOP that is turning Texas blue.
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ExSky
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 543


« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2020, 09:28:04 PM »

It’s extremely bad news Dallas County couldn’t even surpass 2016.

Not really, atleast not for democrats. Might be a terrible sign for Republicans. Dallas County in 2016 had around 15k more in turnout day 1 compared to Day 1 in 2018 and Beto outdid Hillary by 20k in the total count by the end.

I’d be willing to bet this number is caused by the republicans in Dallas county not turning out.

Dallas has a lot of suburban country club Republicans who might decide to sit it out.

Here in Virginia we refer to "Suburban Country Club Republicans" simply as "Democrats" now.  But here they definitely don't sit out elections.

Give us a cycle or 2. We’ll be renaming those country club republicans soon 😉
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ExSky
Jr. Member
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Posts: 543


« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2020, 12:25:18 AM »



Finally

Dallas - you need to keep voting big so Judge Clay keeps slaying on twitter.

Clay might be headed to Austin sooner rather than later.
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ExSky
Jr. Member
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Posts: 543


« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2020, 09:45:31 AM »
« Edited: October 14, 2020, 10:03:06 AM by ExSky »

Collin County with nearly 40k day 1 early votes. 31k in 2016.

Denton County with 35.9k compared to 16.9k in 2016.

Williamson County 22.7k vs 18.1k 2016

No figures out of Fort Bend but it’s very clear....

The suburbs are coming
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ExSky
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 543


« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2020, 10:12:51 AM »

Collin County with nearly 40k day 1 early votes. 31k in 2016.

Denton County with 35.9k compared to 16.9k in 2016.

Williamson County 22.7k vs 18.1k 2016

No figures out of Fort Bend but it’s very clear....

The suburbs are coming

CONGRATS ARCADE FIRE

Quite a fantastic album.
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ExSky
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 543


« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2020, 10:35:15 AM »

Collin County with nearly 40k day 1 early votes. 31k in 2016.

Denton County with 35.9k compared to 16.9k in 2016.

Williamson County 22.7k vs 18.1k 2016

No figures out of Fort Bend but it’s very clear....

The suburbs are coming

Over 10% of 2016/18 turnout in Harris and all these suburbs on Day 1

I saw they got another 8.5K in Harris County in the first hour this morning.

Day 2 outdid Day 1 in 2016. Tarrant has cast around 12k already today as well.
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ExSky
Jr. Member
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Posts: 543


« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2020, 10:07:31 AM »

I think we are beginning throws of Montgomery county shifting to purple. I believe there will be a large close in the gap this cycle but it’ll take a couple of cycles to truly be competitive
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ExSky
Jr. Member
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Posts: 543


« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2020, 01:40:30 PM »

Just cast my vote! Went with a couple of conservative leaning friends who voted Biden at the top and straight republican downballot. Could be a common theme but just anecdotal of course
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ExSky
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Posts: 543


« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2020, 02:26:15 PM »

Republicans have to straight up lie to themselves to feel better. Can’t believe anyone thought that Denton County data was true. But I guess if you’re desperate enough to find any sort of good news you become sympathetic to outright lies
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ExSky
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Posts: 543


« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2020, 04:04:41 PM »

the only turnout numbers that are crazy good are harris + denton everything else is on par with past years not sure why people are so "excited" lol let's wait & see

Denial
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ExSky
Jr. Member
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Posts: 543


« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2020, 03:29:50 AM »

if republicans write anything positive about turnout the dems have to shut us down but they can  go into pages about texas lol what babies...

I mean, would I be happy if the GOP weren’t turning out at all this election? Of course. But that blog post is  not as simple as Jessica is (I suspect willfully) misrepresenting it to be.

i can say the same thing about the texas turnout as well... nobody knows what the hell is going to happen

Then stop talking about it as if you know.
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ExSky
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Posts: 543


« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2020, 05:00:28 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2020, 05:03:49 PM by ExSky »

That Denton number... something wild is happening in that county.

2010 census: 662,614
2015 estimate: 778,846
2019 estimate: 887,207

Denton County is literally not the same place it was 8 or even 4 years ago.

This seems correct. It's really looking like the Texas version of Loudon County.

This is a really good comparison. The deniers are refusing to acknowledge the basic fact that the republican vote is only going to marginally increase at best in these suburbs. Theyve been GOP strongholds forever. It’s the Democrat voters who used to think they didn’t have a shot, finally waking up and realizing that can blow away the republicans if they actually turnout (of course combined with the massive population growth which leans liberal)

Loudon County in 08 didn’t lose GOP voters. In fact it gained from 60k to 63k. The Dems meanwhile went from 47k to 73k in once cycle.

GOP is close to a ceiling in Texas. Trump only added about 150k from Bush in 04. Dems have increased by over a million since then and the closing in the gap isn’t just going to suddenly slow down because the numbers about even now. It’s going to likely accelerate to the left even more driven by the population growth, urbanization, and loss of the suburbs (which was sped up by Trump).

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ExSky
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 543


« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2020, 08:01:18 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2020, 08:04:26 PM by ExSky »

Republicans convincing themselves into believing theyre doing incredibly well because of TargetSmart is absolute comedy gold. Lordy I can’t wait for this election to come 😂

I suspect the narrative will shift to Democrat early voter fraud very quickly.
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ExSky
Jr. Member
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Posts: 543


« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2020, 04:52:40 AM »

So let me see if I have this right:

— Basically even in in-person voting
— Big Dem advantage in mail voting
— Miami-Dade still out

Sounds good for Dems then, right?

I’m guessing Miami-Dade puts Dems in the lead for the day for in person early voting. The rest of the unreported counties, other than Sarasota, are pretty small, so Miami-Dade will eclipse them.

Isn't Sarasota the only other unreported county?  My understanding was those remaining rural counties didn't actually have early voting today.

If that’s he case, RIP GOP. Miami-Dade’s 40k votes will be more than enough to give Dems a comfortable lead for the day.

It's the FIRST DAY of early voting in person in Florida. Several counties haven't even offered it yet. And you're already saying "RIP GOP"?

I think Biden is going to win the election, but I wish 2016 taught us a little more about not jumping the gun.


On the contrary. I wish it hadn’t made everyone pathetically cowardly in making a prediction. Everyone’s scared of their own shadow now.
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ExSky
Jr. Member
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Posts: 543


« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2020, 01:15:22 PM »

So...let me get this straight.
It is apparently a good thing for Democrats that there is extremely high in-person voter turnout in Texas....but in nearly every other state we have data, Republicans outnumber Democrats with the in-person vote?

Funny. Almost....as if....Texas...has a...very....restrictive...mail in ballot option

I went slow so you could understand.
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ExSky
Jr. Member
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Posts: 543


« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2020, 02:55:55 PM »

Nevada is burying whatever hope the gop had
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ExSky
Jr. Member
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Posts: 543


« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2020, 06:46:34 PM »

Harris has gone past 2018 EV count and will go past 2016 within a couple Of days. And there’s an entire week left.
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