2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[2016]

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!

If you believe TargetSmart Texas is in the bag for Republicans

3,199,795 VBM & In-Person Ballots returned

89 % In-Person / 11 % VBM

There won't be many VBM Ballots in TX because it's not allowed. Either you vote Early In-Person or on E-Day

Breakdown by Party (CNN 2016 Exits)
52 % R (38 %)

39 % D (29 %)

9 % I (33 %)

Breakdown by Age (CNN 2016 Exits)

18-29 9 % (18 %)

30-39 12 % (19 %)

40-49 15 % (20 %)

50-64 30 % (28 %)

65+ 34 % (15 %)

Gender (CNN 2016 Exits)

Women 55 % (53 %)

Men 45 % (47 %)

Assuming TargetSmart has modelled this right there is NO CHANCE Biden wins the State and all the Pollsters showing Sleepy Joe within range are BOGUS. Texas stays in the Pipe Dream for the Democrats.

[2016]

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!

If you believe TargetSmart Texas is in the bag for Republicans

3,199,795 VBM & In-Person Ballots returned

89 % In-Person / 11 % VBM

There won't be many VBM Ballots in TX because it's not allowed. Either you vote Early In-Person or on E-Day

Breakdown by Party (CNN 2016 Exits)
52 % R (38 %)

39 % D (29 %)

9 % I (33 %)

Breakdown by Age (CNN 2016 Exits)

18-29 9 % (18 %)

30-39 12 % (19 %)

40-49 15 % (20 %)

50-64 30 % (28 %)

65+ 34 % (15 %)

Gender (CNN 2016 Exits)

Women 55 % (53 %)

Men 45 % (47 %)

Assuming TargetSmart has modelled this right there is NO CHANCE Biden wins the State and all the Pollsters showing Sleepy Joe within range are BOGUS. Texas stays in the Pipe Dream for the Democrats.

Target smart has a terrible reputation though. Not trusting statewide polls either though since pollsters really don’t know how to poll Tx yet. Until then, I kind of have to speculate

Republicans have a Registration Advantage in Texas!

During the 2018 Midterms the Party Breakdown was 38 % R / 34 % / I 27 %
Cruz won R's 91-8
O'Rourke won D's 92-8 and I's 50-47

The Youth Vote which helped O'Rourke a lot 2 years ago seems also down according to TS. Biden would need a similar Party ID O'Rourke had in 2018 + he would need to win Independents by high single digits to have a chance. NOPE, won't happening!

[2016]

Forgetting the party registration the age numbers so far indicates good news for the GOP in Texas while the gender numbers indicates good news for the Dems .


The age numbers I would say are better news for the GOP than the gender numbers are for the Dems

I look at county results. If Biden is crazy turnout in all urban/suburban Texas counties then thats bad news for republicans. Getting into the weeds about gender age or race can be misleading

Forget the Crazy Turnout. If Trump is at or above 50 % JA in Texas (which I expect he will) he is going to win the State.

I remember all the EV crap that was said in Texas in 2018.

[2016]

Cotto/Gottfried
@CottoGottfried
·
10h
In North Carolina, in-person early voting returns have eclipsed VBM ones by four points. Dems lead GOPers by a 23-point margin, with 1,243,340 ballots received. GOPers are slowly closing the gap, but this is pathetic all the same. GOPers will need an epic Election Day turnout.

"slowly closing the gap" is doing a lot of work here. They are literally down 23%.

Hilarious!

Democrats in North Carolina in 2012 had a combined VBM/Early In-Person lead of 443K Votes YET Republicans ended up winning the State.

These Statistics are provided under "Historical Absentee Statistics" by the NC State Board of Elections and you can all download them!!!!

NC 2012 combined VBM/Early In-Person Vote at the end of Early Voting

D: 1,317,822
R: 874,205
I: 576,273

Democrats had a lead in Registration at the end of Early Voting by 443,617. Mitt Romney ended up winning the State by 92,004 Votes.

2016 at the end of combined VBM/Early In-Person Vote at the end of Early Voting

D: - 22.288 compared to 2012
R: + 122.349 compared to 2012
I: + 273.980 compared to 2012

Democrats had a lead in Registration at the end of Early Voting by 298,980. Donald Trump ended up winning the State by 173,315 Votes.

So, what are u smoking @wbrocks67?

Are I am a bit concerned about NC? Yes, but quite frankly Dems have to bump up their VBM/EV a lot.
Democrats currently have a 309,380 Vote lead in NC. Not great for the GOP BUT if Romney can close a 443K Vote Gap and win and Trump closed a 298K Vote gap and win a lot has to fall in line for D's to win NC.

Even with the 310K Vote Gap right now I still say Trump wins NC by less than 50K Votes.

[2016]

No, I am not ignoring TargetSmart...

TEXAS EARLY VOTE

Total Ballots Cast: 3,199,795

REPUBLICANS 1,620,479 (50.6 %)

DEMOCRATS 1,311,356 (41.0 %)

INDEPENDENTS 267,960 (8.4 %)

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html?view_type=State&demo=Modeled%20Party&demo_val=All&state=TX

Biden winning Texas is a "Pipe Dream" for him!