2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[NOVA Green]

OREGON- 10/22/20 AM UPDATE (Day 4 of Full Reports)

736,109 Ballots Received:    (36.8% of 2016 TOTAL PRES).     +12.1% Daily Jump 
                                         (24.9% of 2020 TOTAL RV)          + 8.1%  Daily Jump

Before provide the Daily Update, here are the links to my two previous daily updates in this thread, for anyone who might be interested.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7670571#msg7670571

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7674522#msg7674522

So... let's roll the numbers.

10/22/20 AM Update: Cumulative Raw Total Vote in OR by Partisan Registration



DEMs expand their Raw Vote margins to +210k (Getting awfully close to the +220k DEM '16 PRES Margins).

10/22/20 AM Update: Total Cumulative Vote by Partisan Registration %:



Of the 736,109 ballots received (52% DEM- 21% PUB- 23% Misc) vs RV (36% DEM- 26% PUB- 39% Misc). !!!

Total % of Votes Received by Political Party Registration:



Now Here is the Total Daily Ballot Update from 10/21 AM to 10/22 AM by Political Registration:



DEM's increase Raw Vote Margins by 42k... another record day for Oregon Turnout with 241k New Votes added.

Now let's look at the daily update as a % of Vote by Political Registration:



PUB's starting to catch up, but DEMs still lead by a giant huge +17.5% Vote by RV by Political Party.

A few brief notes and comments:

1.) Initially, with my first reporting of Oregon Ballot returns by County, I posited a hypothetical that part of the reason for large initial DEM leads in SAFE PUB Counties in Oregon, might well have been caused by access to local Ballot Box Drop sites and/or potentially also delays in mail service, when getting the votes back to the County Election HQ.

2.) Increasingly as the results come in, it appears that this is not the case.

3.) OR Republicans are extremely familiar with VbM, and although the gap is closing slightly in terms of % Turnout by Registered Party, this does not explain what we are observing in 2020, even compared to 2018 numbers.

4.) I was not expecting to see overwhelming Democratic numbers dominating and low voter turnout levels among Registered Republicans, even in heavily Republican Counties in Oregon sustained as long as it has been.

5.) Even adjusting for the dramatic DEM TO in Metro PDX, the DEM TO numbers appear to be insane even from strong Trump Counties such as Linn and Douglas Counties, let alone even discussing Jackson, Deschutes, and Marion Counties.

6.) Seniors in the Oregon Coastal Counties appear to be turning out much more heavily to cast DEM ballots vs PUB ballots from Clatsop County down to Curry County

7.) Not quite sure why Republicans aren't really voting that much this election, even in heavily "Trump Country" in Oregon...

I don't want as a Downstate Oregonian for Metro PDX to run our State, but at the same time we aren't automatically "Anti-Salem"...

8.) As I have previously posted the OR AVR via DMV could well create a Tsunami in Oregon, with tons of new voters in 2020, and potentially wipe out what little "strongholds" the PUBs have yet remaining for OR HD and SD...

OR has lost it's only Lady Solo Statewide Elected Pol for quite some time....

[wbrocks67]

Hawkfish has new data out of the swing states based on the EV - their analyzations show that so far, Dems are turning out not just more high propensity voters than Reps, but also more 'sporadic voters' (low propensity) and new registrants.

Also, they modeled:

"At a glance, the top-line Democratic margins also look huge in Arizona (16 percentage points), Michigan (24 points), North Carolina (14 points), Pennsylvania (46 points), and Wisconsin (22), according to the analysis from Hawkfish, which is funded by billionaire Michael Bloomberg, a Trump foe."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363

[n1240]

NC 10/20, day 7 early in-person vote:

Dem 72941 (32.5%)
Rep 84588 (37.7%)
Una 67073 (29.9%)
Total 224602

compared to day 7 in 2016

Dem 101199 (42.5%)
Rep 78058 (32.8%)
Una 58850 (24.7%)
Total 238107

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 774036 (39.4%)
Rep 644586 (32.8%)
Una 543739 (27.7%0
Total 1737759

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1125228 (41.9%)
Rep 784337 (29.2%)
Una 79473 (28.9%)
Total 2687217

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 554859 (45.5%)
Rep 366861 (30.0%)
Una 298019 (24.4%)

Another day of GOP slowly chipping away at Dem lead, a quicker rate than yesterday, but still very slow overall (350k Dem lead after Tuesday, 348k after Wednesday, 341k after Thursday). This is also the first day where 2016 daily total was higher than 2020 I believe (not sure why this is though, it's a pretty large spike between Oct 26 and Oct 27).

[wbrocks67]

NC 10/20, day 7 early in-person vote:

Dem 72941 (32.5%)
Rep 84588 (37.7%)
Una 67073 (29.9%)
Total 224602

compared to day 7 in 2016

Dem 101199 (42.5%)
Rep 78058 (32.8%)
Una 58850 (24.7%)
Total 238107

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 774036 (39.4%)
Rep 644586 (32.8%)
Una 543739 (27.7%0
Total 1737759

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1125228 (41.9%)
Rep 784337 (29.2%)
Una 79473 (28.9%)
Total 2687217

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 554859 (45.5%)
Rep 366861 (30.0%)
Una 298019 (24.4%)

Another day of GOP slowly chipping away at Dem lead, a quicker rate than yesterday, but still very slow overall (350k Dem lead after Tuesday, 348k after Wednesday, 341k after Thursday). This is also the first day where 2016 daily total was higher than 2020 I believe (not sure why this is though, it's a pretty large spike between Oct 26 and Oct 27).

What did these totals look like on the last day of EV in 2016? I feel like it's more of a better comparison if we go off where say, the EV was in 2016 when there was ~2.7 million votes cast

[n1240]

NC 10/20, day 7 early in-person vote:

Dem 72941 (32.5%)
Rep 84588 (37.7%)
Una 67073 (29.9%)
Total 224602

compared to day 7 in 2016

Dem 101199 (42.5%)
Rep 78058 (32.8%)
Una 58850 (24.7%)
Total 238107

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 774036 (39.4%)
Rep 644586 (32.8%)
Una 543739 (27.7%0
Total 1737759

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1125228 (41.9%)
Rep 784337 (29.2%)
Una 79473 (28.9%)
Total 2687217

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 554859 (45.5%)
Rep 366861 (30.0%)
Una 298019 (24.4%)

Another day of GOP slowly chipping away at Dem lead, a quicker rate than yesterday, but still very slow overall (350k Dem lead after Tuesday, 348k after Wednesday, 341k after Thursday). This is also the first day where 2016 daily total was higher than 2020 I believe (not sure why this is though, it's a pretty large spike between Oct 26 and Oct 27).

What did these totals look like on the last day of EV in 2016? I feel like it's more of a better comparison if we go off where say, the EV was in 2016 when there was ~2.7 million votes cast

Thought I might've posted in this thread but apparently not

Dem 1327487 (41.6%)
Rep 1023651 (32.1%)
Una 839455 (26.3%)
Total 3190593

Unless you're specifically asking for the single day voting for the last day of early in-person

Dem 114087 (37.8%)
Rep 99728 (33.1%)
Una 87921 (29.1%)
Total 301736

[Umengus]

FLORIDA


4,705,612 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,085,559 (44.3%)
Republican: 1,659,686 (35.3%)
NPA/Other: 960,367 (20.2%)

Dem lead decreases to 425,873

~537,167 ballots were processed today

I mean, yeah it's decreasing but not by that much each day.  Wasn't the highest Democratic lead like 470k? 

Exactly, I don't get the thinking of how "The GOP is surging!" when yes, they are outvoting in EV, but Dems are still seeing a massive lead-in in mail ins, and with nearly 5M votes in right now, Dems are still up +426K which is massive.

We've talked about how Dems really just need to break even with the GOP, so the GOP really has a long way to go to catch up 426K behind.

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

FLORIDA


4,705,612 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,085,559 (44.3%)
Republican: 1,659,686 (35.3%)
NPA/Other: 960,367 (20.2%)

Dem lead decreases to 425,873

~537,167 ballots were processed today

I mean, yeah it's decreasing but not by that much each day.  Wasn't the highest Democratic lead like 470k? 

Exactly, I don't get the thinking of how "The GOP is surging!" when yes, they are outvoting in EV, but Dems are still seeing a massive lead-in in mail ins, and with nearly 5M votes in right now, Dems are still up +426K which is massive.

We've talked about how Dems really just need to break even with the GOP, so the GOP really has a long way to go to catch up 426K behind.

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

The latest Florida poll has the remaining vote (ie haven’t vote early yet but will along with ED voters) going 60/40 Trump which isn’t a big enough split to make up 426k

[n1240]

FLORIDA


4,705,612 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,085,559 (44.3%)
Republican: 1,659,686 (35.3%)
NPA/Other: 960,367 (20.2%)

Dem lead decreases to 425,873

~537,167 ballots were processed today

I mean, yeah it's decreasing but not by that much each day.  Wasn't the highest Democratic lead like 470k? 

Exactly, I don't get the thinking of how "The GOP is surging!" when yes, they are outvoting in EV, but Dems are still seeing a massive lead-in in mail ins, and with nearly 5M votes in right now, Dems are still up +426K which is massive.

We've talked about how Dems really just need to break even with the GOP, so the GOP really has a long way to go to catch up 426K behind.

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

The latest Florida poll has the remaining vote (ie haven’t vote early yet but will along with ED voters) going 60/40 Trump which isn’t a big enough split to make up 426k

They also have 60% already voted which seems way too high of a percentage (would imply 80% of 2016 turnout). I mentioned previously these crosstabs are pretty noisy and vote choice indication to pollsters is pretty fluid so it's hard to get a decent read from these sort of numbers.

[Adam Griffin]

Hawkfish has new data out of the swing states based on the EV - their analyzations show that so far, Dems are turning out not just more high propensity voters than Reps, but also more 'sporadic voters' (low propensity) and new registrants.

AZ: Biden 58-42
FL: Biden 56-44
MI: Biden 62-38
NC: Biden 57-43
PA: Biden 72-28
WI: Biden 61-39

[Hindsight was 2020]

FLORIDA


4,705,612 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,085,559 (44.3%)
Republican: 1,659,686 (35.3%)
NPA/Other: 960,367 (20.2%)

Dem lead decreases to 425,873

~537,167 ballots were processed today

I mean, yeah it's decreasing but not by that much each day.  Wasn't the highest Democratic lead like 470k? 

Exactly, I don't get the thinking of how "The GOP is surging!" when yes, they are outvoting in EV, but Dems are still seeing a massive lead-in in mail ins, and with nearly 5M votes in right now, Dems are still up +426K which is massive.

We've talked about how Dems really just need to break even with the GOP, so the GOP really has a long way to go to catch up 426K behind.

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

The latest Florida poll has the remaining vote (ie haven’t vote early yet but will along with ED voters) going 60/40 Trump which isn’t a big enough split to make up 426k

They also have 60% already voted which seems way too high of a percentage (would imply 80% of 2016 turnout). I mentioned previously these crosstabs are pretty noisy and vote choice indication to pollsters is pretty fluid so it's hard to get a decent read from these sort of numbers.

Can’t you then in turn argue that the cw that ED will be overwhelmingly pro-Trump is also flawed as it was based on reading the same types of cross tab data?

[n1240]

FLORIDA


4,705,612 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,085,559 (44.3%)
Republican: 1,659,686 (35.3%)
NPA/Other: 960,367 (20.2%)

Dem lead decreases to 425,873

~537,167 ballots were processed today

I mean, yeah it's decreasing but not by that much each day.  Wasn't the highest Democratic lead like 470k? 

Exactly, I don't get the thinking of how "The GOP is surging!" when yes, they are outvoting in EV, but Dems are still seeing a massive lead-in in mail ins, and with nearly 5M votes in right now, Dems are still up +426K which is massive.

We've talked about how Dems really just need to break even with the GOP, so the GOP really has a long way to go to catch up 426K behind.

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

The latest Florida poll has the remaining vote (ie haven’t vote early yet but will along with ED voters) going 60/40 Trump which isn’t a big enough split to make up 426k

They also have 60% already voted which seems way too high of a percentage (would imply 80% of 2016 turnout). I mentioned previously these crosstabs are pretty noisy and vote choice indication to pollsters is pretty fluid so it's hard to get a decent read from these sort of numbers.

Can’t you then in turn argue that the cw that ED will be overwhelmingly pro-Trump is also flawed as it was based on reading the same types of cross tab data?

To an extent, but there are still a number of data points that would indicate that the election day vote will be pretty pro-Trump such as post April/May primary results and the current general trend in partisanship of voters as we're getting closer to the election. I think it's just hard to get a solid estimate of how many will actually vote on election day and how pro-Trump it will be at this point. It's plausible to think a number of Trump voters indicating they will vote in-person on election day end up, or have already voted early in-person, which might be muddying the vote indication crosstabs.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Hawkfish has new data out of the swing states based on the EV - their analyzations show that so far, Dems are turning out not just more high propensity voters than Reps, but also more 'sporadic voters' (low propensity) and new registrants.

Also, they modeled:

"At a glance, the top-line Democratic margins also look huge in Arizona (16 percentage points), Michigan (24 points), North Carolina (14 points), Pennsylvania (46 points), and Wisconsin (22), according to the analysis from Hawkfish, which is funded by billionaire Michael Bloomberg, a Trump foe."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363

Is Hawkfish trustworthy at all?

[Crumpets]

Just dropped off my ballot at the shipping place!

This is 100% anecdotal, but maybe a bit more informative than some other anecdotal turnout reports: The guy at Mail Boxes, Etc. said that they were shipping "far more ballots than in 2016." If high early/absentee/mail turnout in the US can be written off as "well, it's because of the pandemic," the fact that students overseas (who still had no other choice but to vote by mail in 2016) are getting increased turnout might show it's not entirely down to COVID or Republican attempts to hinder mail-in ballots.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319618269565898752?s=21

[Flabuckeye]

We need to stop obsessing over some arbitrary Dem-Rep difference number for Florida.  All about Turnout.  Only 74.5% of Dems showed up in 2016 vs 81.2% of Repubs....that was the ballgame.

Here is where we are after this morning's update from the Florida SOS.

This chart provides Turnout to date by Party, where they were at the end of all EV in 2016 and what the Final Turnout numbers were.   Dems are way ahead of where they were last time with 10 days of EV left.

[Crucial Waukesha]

Montana up to 62% of 2016 turnout.  Very impressive showing for that state.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319634387659591680?s=21

[Tender Branson]

With the way this is going, Democratic leads in mail-voting will get wiped out by in-person voting and especially election-day voting (Trump-voters will turn out big).

All is still possible in the swing states, even Trump wins !

I think I will settle on some 2012-style Biden wins in my final prediction and give some states like FL or NC to Trump ...

[wbrocks67]

This weekend should be interesting. Want to see the effects of Souls to the Polls in places like GA, LA, NC, FL, etc.

[riceowl]

Can someone rational give a quick tl; dr on the current situation in Florida? Too many posts with too many pov's and too many tears

[Crumpets]

We've officially crossed 50,000,000 votes nation-wide.

[wbrocks67]

Can someone rational give a quick tl; dr on the current situation in Florida? Too many posts with too many pov's and too many tears

Turnout seems really important, especially when you understand why Clinton lost. Only 74% of Ds ended up turning out in FL ultimately, while 81% of Rs did.

Right now, Dems are at 40% turnout total, and Reps 32%. So Dems need to keep on turning out and at the very least hold steady in terms of turnout by ED.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Could TX and MT surpass 2016 total turnout just from early/mail votes?

[wbrocks67]

NC 10/20, day 7 early in-person vote:

Dem 72941 (32.5%)
Rep 84588 (37.7%)
Una 67073 (29.9%)
Total 224602

compared to day 7 in 2016

Dem 101199 (42.5%)
Rep 78058 (32.8%)
Una 58850 (24.7%)
Total 238107

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 774036 (39.4%)
Rep 644586 (32.8%)
Una 543739 (27.7%0
Total 1737759

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1125228 (41.9%)
Rep 784337 (29.2%)
Una 79473 (28.9%)
Total 2687217

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 554859 (45.5%)
Rep 366861 (30.0%)
Una 298019 (24.4%)

Another day of GOP slowly chipping away at Dem lead, a quicker rate than yesterday, but still very slow overall (350k Dem lead after Tuesday, 348k after Wednesday, 341k after Thursday). This is also the first day where 2016 daily total was higher than 2020 I believe (not sure why this is though, it's a pretty large spike between Oct 26 and Oct 27).

What did these totals look like on the last day of EV in 2016? I feel like it's more of a better comparison if we go off where say, the EV was in 2016 when there was ~2.7 million votes cast

Thought I might've posted in this thread but apparently not

Dem 1327487 (41.6%)
Rep 1023651 (32.1%)
Una 839455 (26.3%)
Total 3190593

Unless you're specifically asking for the single day voting for the last day of early in-person

Dem 114087 (37.8%)
Rep 99728 (33.1%)
Una 87921 (29.1%)
Total 301736

Gotcha. So this won't be an easy apples to apples comparison either, b/c you also had Independents going Trump +16 via the NC exit poll, so even if Dems have a lead about the same this year, Indies may hold the key.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Could TX and MT surpass 2016 total turnout just from early/mail votes?

I think it's a given that all the major growing urban counties in Texas will surpass 100% of 2016 final vote tallies before next Friday. Travis County will be flirting with hitting 400k today alone (total in 2016 was 469k and 2018 was 484k). Harris will likely surpass 1.3 million late next week, along with Dallas and Bexar, to say nothing of the major suburban counties like Williamson, Denton, and Collin, who will probably pass it this weekend.