2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Dr. Arch]

Some of y’all need to retake math ASAP

Or maybe, just maybe, that first Tweet didn't load for me for some reason

"Error loading tweet! The linked tweet may not exist, or you may need to turn off any ad blockers / tracking protection you have enabled."

I clicked on the link and saw that now. Nevertheless, Democrats are still in a much better position now than they were in 2016.

[TopShelfGoal]

Looks like PA there was a problem with some of the counties reporting. They seem to be coming in better/faster now, esp the suburbs.

Dems have now returned 51% of their ballots. Reps only 36%.

Dems @ 947K vs. Reps 263K.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1319303007381704704

Am I misreading this, or is this an absolute disaster for the GOP? It looks like this kind of got glossed over. Even if 25% of those D votes are "ancestral Democrats" voting for Republicans, that's still a 210,000 vote deficit for the GOP at this point.

Unlike FL/AZ/NV which have a culture of early voting, PA has never had no-excuse early voting until this election cycle. So when GOP voters in FL/AZ/NV hear Trump cast doubts on mail/early voting they pay less attention to it as they have been voting in that manner for years. PA Rs are going to be more skeptical of mail or early voting because they have never done it and their president is calling it unsafe. Of all the swing states GOP is going to have to rely on election day voting probably the most in PA.

It is kinda ironic because non-college white turnout is much lower than college whites turnout and even lower than african american turnout. It would have been in Trump's best strategic interest to encourage early voting to maximize the chances of turning out more non-college whites, but he did the exact opposite.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Looks like PA there was a problem with some of the counties reporting. They seem to be coming in better/faster now, esp the suburbs.

Dems have now returned 51% of their ballots. Reps only 36%.

Dems @ 947K vs. Reps 263K.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1319303007381704704

Am I misreading this, or is this an absolute disaster for the GOP? It looks like this kind of got glossed over. Even if 25% of those D votes are "ancestral Democrats" voting for Republicans, that's still a 210,000 vote deficit for the GOP at this point.

Depends. Are republicans simply not returning ballots or is it just that the bulk of reporting is from dem leaning areas? Does lower mail in turnout in rural areas suggest a lack of enthusiasm or just an intent to vote in person?

Democratic strategy firm TargetSmart has data on early voting by congressional district (and more). Districts 3 (the majority black district in Philly) has cast over 125,000 votes already.
By contrast, districts 1, 9, 12, 13, 15, and 16 have cast less than 50,000 votes. All except 1 (Bucks) is solid red. District one has only 20,000 votes reported. Are they really voting at 1/6 the pace of the city? Doubtful. I expect dems to keep a raw vote lead in early voting, but in percentage terms, the gap should fall as other areas catch up on reporting.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Right now 38.5% of registered democrats have turned out.  If they keep steadily increasing this number, hopefully Biden can micro-target the stragglers.  

I've been volunteering in South Florida and iirc, they expect 2/3 of votes to be in before election day and have been recruiting volunteers HARD to make calls on the last four days. Because early voting/dropboxes close on 11/1, using SOS matchbacks they should be able to target every likely Biden vote that hasn't turned out before election day.

so the closer to 2/3 of Dem votes in by 11/1 the better?  And if it's more than 2/3 then that's a great sign?

Maybe? More Dem votes are always better but it depends on what the Republicans are doing. Regardless, expect e-day votes to be about half of VMB+early vote on 11/1 and use that to calculate how much Dems can lose e-day by.

[Holmes]

Non Swing Voter is right that you guys should be looking at the turnout % among Dems and Reps, not the raw vote margin between the two. If Dem turnout is higher, that’s a good sign.

Also you guys need to stop this weird assumption that Election Day turnout will be like 90-10 R.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: As of the 5 PM update, 183,804 votes were cast on Thursday.

This includes 135,022 in-person votes and 48,782 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,444,796 in-person & 863,579 by mail, for a grand total of 2,308,375 (55.42% of 2016 total vote).

[It’s so Joever]

So what’s the Atlas spin on how Democrats benefitted from Florida voting today?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Non Swing Voter is right that you guys should be looking at the turnout % among Dems and Reps, not the raw vote margin between the two. If Dem turnout is higher, that’s a good sign.

Also you guys need to stop this weird assumption that Election Day turnout will be like 90-10 R.

Most polls are showing at least a 70-30 R disparity in voters that plan to vote on 11/3, though

[Rep Jessica]

Florida in-person EV: Day 4 as of 4:20 PM

Rep 111,769  (+41,320)
Dem 70,449
NPA/Other 43,246
Total 225,464

Cumulative total

Rep 595,191  (+132,220)
Dem 462,971
NPA/Other 228,136
Total 1,286,298

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Harris County has surpassed 900k and will probably hit 1 million by the end of the weekend.

Travis is at 19k for the day, meaning (not counting for the rest of the day) they only need to average 20k a day through the end of early voting to hit 500k. Total turnout in 2016 was 469k and 484k in 2018. Phenomenal news for Biden, especially if we can get another 100k+ voters out in Travis on Election Day.

[It’s so Joever]

Florida in-person EV: Day 4 as of 4:20 PM

Rep 111,769  (+41,320)
Dem 70,449
NPA/Other 43,246
Total 225,464

Cumulative total

Rep 595,191  (+132,220)
Dem 462,971
NPA/Other 228,136
Total 1,286,298

Clearly good for Biden. I expect him to win statewide by double digits and flip Brevard/Polk/Sarasota/Volusia/Lake County.

[Stockdale for Veep]

I see that VBM has become the new "enthusiasm gap".

[Flabuckeye]

Turnout among heavy D Counties in Florida
For perspective, after early voting in 2016 Dem turnout (as a function of every registered D) was the following by county at that point

Miami Dade-58.6%
Broward-58.4%
PBC-  48.4%

As of early this morning, with 10 days to go they were at:
Miami Dade-31.1%
Broward-35.6%
PBC-  40.5%

Chugging along....Palm Beach really doing well

[TopShelfGoal]

I am so proud of everyone for not taking "Single Issue Covid Voter"'s bait thus far. I hope ya'll can keep that up and stop letting that man get a rise out of you.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319397881107787777

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319389062806052866

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319389062806052866

Damnit, Michael McDonald: just count the early votes and stop trying to be a "thug"!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

So I'll continue to post more of the daily vote updates of Texas...but ONLY to show all you optimists how foolish you all are for falling for the Fools Gold that is "Blue Texas". Remember that I know all about Texas and I know that it's just not there yet. Why? It's just not.

I'm just posting the numbers here:


Day 9 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 21)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   550,653     27.5%
2016:   713,083     31.9%  (60.0% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   637,543     27.3%
2020:   874,295     35.2%  (66.6% of 2016 turnout)

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   316,092     26.9%
2016:   401,022     31.2%  (56.5% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   400,765     30.0%
2020:   485,566     34.7%  (64.0% of 2016 turnout)

TARRANT COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   299,361     30.7%
2016:   378,155     35.1%  (61.9% of 2012 turnout)  
2018:   349,878     31.2%
2020:   405,141     33.4%  (60.6% of 2016 turnout)

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   266,697     29.0%
2016:   346,830     33.2%  (67.5% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   311,093     28.3%
2020:   396,074     33.3%  (67.2% of 2016 turnout)

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:   157,689     24.9%
2016:   276,828     38.2%  (71.5% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   270,636     34.9%
2020:   341,511     39.9%  (72.9% of 2016 turnout)

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   155,285     33.8%
2016:   229,487     42.7%  (75.8% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   220,974     38.1%
2020:   290,701     44.8%  (80.4% of 2016 turnout)

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   120,474     31.2%
2016:   176,605     38.0%  (72.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   172,332     34.6%
2020:   247,846     43.9%  (83.0% of 2016 turnout)

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:     67,815     17.7%
2016:   111,059     25.9%  (64.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   107,249     23.5%
2020:   137,644     28.2%  (64.3% of 2016 turnout)

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:   119,841     35.3%
2016:   158,243     39.2%  (72.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   150,928     35.0%
2020:   186,434     38.7%  (71.1% of 2016 turnout)

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     75,299     24.7%
2016:   103,952     30.7%  (74.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     86,218     23.9%
2020:   115,460     29.5%  (66.6% of 2016 turnout)

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:     74,435     29.4%
2016:   123,383     41.1%  (75.6% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   125,511     37.6%
2020:   169,457     45.0%  (83.4% of 2016 turnout)

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     91,287     34.5%
2016:   116,131     37.2%  (67.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   106,099     31.8%
2020:   131,152     35.4%  (64.1% of 2016 turnout)

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     62,202     33.6%
2016:     78,912     37.9%  (71.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     70,804     33.3%
2020:     90,026     39.4%  (73.3% of 2016 turnout)

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     29,818     16.5%
2016:     45,760     23.1%  (59.5% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     41,555     20.1%
2020:     61,011     27.9%  (66.3% of 2016 turnout)

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     43,926     22.9%
2016:     54,392     27.3%  (56.6% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     51,078     24.9%
2020:     71,086     33.6%  (68.1% of 2016 turnout)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wait, Michael McDonald is a GOP operative?

I always thought he was just a nonpartisan numbers guy.

[Crumpets]

Wait, Michael McDonald is a GOP operative?

 I always thought he was just a nonpartisan numbers guy.

Clearly he's not making so much on Doobie Brothers royalties anymore and needs the cash. :/

[Lief 🗽]

...

The next few days are going to be compared with what were the final days of early voting in past years, right? Since there's a week extra this year?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Wait, Michael McDonald is a GOP operative?

 I always thought he was just a nonpartisan numbers guy.

Not sure if you're joking but there's two Michael McDonalds, one's the chair of the NV GOP and the other is the ElectProject guy.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

is Jon Ralston still pushing his Nevada horserace shtick

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

And because you "Blue Texas" believers are probably too dumb to read all those numbers, I conjured up some line graphs of early voting. Keep in mind that there's an extra week of early voting, so it's a bit skewed. Won't matter though cause Trump is gonna win by like 5+ points:

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)


DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)


TARRANT COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)


BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)


TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)


COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)


DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)


EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)


FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)


HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)


WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)


MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)


GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)


CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)


NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

...

The next few days are going to be compared with what were the final days of early voting in past years, right? Since there's a week extra this year?

I'm not sure how I'll do the last week of early voting. Perhaps just compare it to 2016 total votes/turnout?

But you'd be right, unless there's a better way to compare