2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Stockdale for Veep]

The only people being fooled are those who think Biden will win any sunbelt swing state other than AZ.

With climate change, aren't we all sunbelt states now?

[It’s so Joever]

The only people being fooled are those who think Biden will win any sunbelt swing state other than AZ.

Huh?

You read that correctly.
None of the Southeast Three or #Bluexas are happening.

[Non Swing Voter]

The only people being fooled are those who think Biden will win any sunbelt swing state other than AZ.

Huh?

You read that correctly.
None of the Southeast Three or #Bluexas are happening.

pretty bold statement for multiple states that are all within the margin of error, some trending D.

[Non Swing Voter]

Top 10 states (as of yesterday; share of '16 total vote):

TX: 59.3
VT: 53.4
NJ: 50.4
NM: 47.8
MT: 47.1
GA: 45.9
NC: 45.2
TN: 42.6
VA: 39.3
IA: 38.5

Hmmm, looks like VA really slowed down.

Does VA have in-person turnout?

I don't know how well it's being reported but we do have in person voting.  Fairfax County recently opened satellite polling offices so I expect a decent bump.  I don't believe Virginia is at only 40% of 2016 turnout right now when some places are reporting more than 50% of registered voters have voted.  It's probably just reporting really slowly.

[It’s so Joever]

The only people being fooled are those who think Biden will win any sunbelt swing state other than AZ.

Huh?

You read that correctly.
None of the Southeast Three or #Bluexas are happening.

pretty bold statement for multiple states that are all within the margin of error, some trending D.

Just watch.

[mijan]

Nevada fooled the GOP agian lol

Could also be used for Iowa after people get their hopes up again over promising early vote returns there, lol

in 2012 D early vote lead was 68 k, 288 k D voted early.
in 2016 D early vote lead was 42 k, 267 k D voted early
in 2020 D early vote lead is 136 k,  already 324 k D voted early.
So, it is not fair comparison.  2020 is not 2016.

Dems had a huge lead in 2018.

In 2018 Dem early vote lead was smaller than 2016 mate. So it was a huge red sign before election day.

[n1240]

NC 10/20, day 6 early in-person vote:

Dem 99618 (35.4%)
Rep 101656 (36.1%)
Una 80452 (28.6%)
Total 281726

compared to day 5 in 2016

Dem 70132 (44.4%)
Rep 48998 (31.1%)
Una 38531 (24.4%)
Total 157661

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 616933 (41.4%)
Rep 468767 (31.5%)
Una 403866 (27.1%)
Total 1489566

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 941926 (43.9%)
Rep 592220 (27.6%)
Una 613188 (28.6%)
Total 2147334

GOP gets their first single day early vote win in NC narrowly, but Dems still increase the total raw ballot lead slightly due to mail-in ballots

Is there a place you're taking this info from? Is it Election Project or the actual SoS data?

Also, what were the final numbers in NC in 2016?

I usually post soon after the SOS updates here, and just compare to the previous day's totals. They post other neat stuff (they have daily reports comparing to 2016 but only # of ballots) + past final absentee files here . For 2016 early vote I've just been filtering the 2016 data by date, should probably set up the code I wrote to better compare the cumulative totals on each date rather than just posting individual day comparisons.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

In light of my misguided optimism and refusal to be fooled, I will no longer be providing daily updates of Texas' early voting. I had a while slew of line graphs prepared for the first full week of voting, but that would just clog up space.

Doing so would also give the false impression that Texas will be a state worth carrying about on Election Night.  It is clear that Biden will lose by a margin worse than Hillarys 9%, maybe even McGoverns 33%. It's just not there yet. It's never been there yet. It's the furthest away from "there" since 1868.

I will instead be mocking and fighting back against anyone with a shred of optimism or thought that Biden will get more than 270 electoral votes or a 4% national popular vote margin (Of course, I hope I'm wrong). Thank you Forumlurker for your persistent persuading and I can't wait to join you on this inspirational journey filled with endless days of positivity and happiness.

[SenatorCouzens]

Nevada is burying whatever hope the gop had

I suggest anyone interested in Nevada actually read Ralston's posts, instead of the comments here.

"And I want to repeat again, and probably not for the last time: We don’t really know yet where this is going. Maybe two-thirds will vote before Election Day, per usual, just with a different mix of methods (mail more than in-person). Maybe not. And we don’t know if this pattern – does four days a pattern make? – will hold for the full fortnight.

"Luckily, you have me to track it."

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

[Non Swing Voter]

Nevada is burying whatever hope the gop had

I suggest anyone interested in Nevada actually read Ralston's posts, instead of the comments here.

"And I want to repeat again, and probably not for the last time: We don’t really know yet where this is going. Maybe two-thirds will vote before Election Day, per usual, just with a different mix of methods (mail more than in-person). Maybe not. And we don’t know if this pattern – does four days a pattern make? – will hold for the full fortnight.

"Luckily, you have me to track it."

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

He's always pretty cautious.  I am too about Nevada this year but the numbers still look pretty bad for Trump right now.  I'd put it this way: there's more room for optimism about Nevada now than a week ago.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

LOL^^. I’m trying to find the funniest thing I’ve ever seen on this forum which was a post where Mt Treasurer made a mock election night tally where Biden led Trump in Georgia by 1000 votes and 97% in and the only outstanding precincts were in Clayton and DeKalb County. In it he says something like “Is it there yet?”

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't know what you crackers are going on about, Biden was never in danger of losing Nevada to Trump lol

[SenatorCouzens]

I don't know what you crackers are going on about, Biden was never in danger of losing Nevada to Trump lol

It's fine to put in your prediction about Nevada today, yesterday, or last year based on whatever you find relevant, except the early vote as it's too early.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NC 10/20, day 6 early in-person vote:

Dem 99618 (35.4%)
Rep 101656 (36.1%)
Una 80452 (28.6%)
Total 281726

compared to day 5 in 2016

Dem 70132 (44.4%)
Rep 48998 (31.1%)
Una 38531 (24.4%)
Total 157661

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 616933 (41.4%)
Rep 468767 (31.5%)
Una 403866 (27.1%)
Total 1489566

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 941926 (43.9%)
Rep 592220 (27.6%)
Una 613188 (28.6%)
Total 2147334

GOP gets their first single day early vote win in NC narrowly, but Dems still increase the total raw ballot lead slightly due to mail-in ballots

Is there a place you're taking this info from? Is it Election Project or the actual SoS data?

Also, what were the final numbers in NC in 2016?

I usually post soon after the SOS updates here, and just compare to the previous day's totals. They post other neat stuff (they have daily reports comparing to 2016 but only # of ballots) + past final absentee files here . For 2016 early vote I've just been filtering the 2016 data by date, should probably set up the code I wrote to better compare the cumulative totals on each date rather than just posting individual day comparisons.

Thanks! That's a pretty annoying format, so thank you for crunching the numbers for us.

[Non Swing Voter]

look, I think Biden is favored in Nevada for sure, but it seems to be the only Clinton state Trump is still actively campaigning in.  I don't hear anything about Maine, New Hampshire, New Mexico, or even Minnesota anymore.  There has to be a reason for this.  Either an internal poll or optimism that he can make an economic argument that Biden will shut down the economy again or something which would hurt a resort town like Vegas.  It's a weak argument but I do worry that workers or unemployed people there will believe it.  

[n1240]

Nevada early vote trend is barely concerning considering the large stream of mail-in ballots still coming in. The mail-in vote stream remains considerably large and any GOP gains from early in-person voting are dwarfed by the mail-in vote advantage Dems have built in Clark and Washoe.

[xavier110]

look, I think Biden is favored in Nevada for sure, but it seems to be the only Clinton state Trump is still actively campaigning in.  I don't hear anything about Maine, New Hampshire, New Mexico, or even Minnesota anymore.  There has to be a reason for this.  Either an internal poll or optimism that he can make an economic argument that Biden will shut down the economy again or something which would hurt a resort town like Vegas.  It's a weak argument but I do worry that workers or unemployed people there will believe it.  

There’s also been a lot of crime on Vegas Strip recently. Law and order message could actually play well there.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1318986793258287105?s=20

Update: 61,687 votes so far today (doesn't include mail ballots returned today). 66% of total 2016 votes.

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1319054659550674944?s=20

[ExSky]

Harris has gone past 2018 EV count and will go past 2016 within a couple Of days. And there’s an entire week left.

[Non Swing Voter]

Harris has gone past 2018 EV count and will go past 2016 within a couple Of days. And there’s an entire week left.

Stunning

[psychprofessor]

Nevada is looking bad for T

Jon Ralston
@RalstonReports
·
10m
The early blog is updated!

Models show Trump is almost surely down by double digits in Nevada with almost a quarter of the vote in. Even if he is winning indies by 10, he's losing by 10.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319060884006711297

And Ralston is usually pretty cautious. Nothing surprising about this, but Biden is set to win big in Nevada. Any gains Republicans are making in the in-person vote so far is getting completely wiped out by huge margins for Democrats voting by mail. Trump also almost certainly isn't winning Independents by double digits this year, like he did in 2016 (people often forget how things really broke Trump's way in 2016, and that still wasn't enough for him to win NV.)

[Non Swing Voter]

Does anyone know why PA is so slow to report?  The philly burbs in particular.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Tarrant County up to 60% of 2016 turnout

[soundchaser]

Nevada is looking bad for T

Jon Ralston
@RalstonReports
·
10m
The early blog is updated!

Models show Trump is almost surely down by double digits in Nevada with almost a quarter of the vote in. Even if he is winning indies by 10, he's losing by 10.

Bear in mind this is if the vote were to stop today. Ralston emphasizes in that blog post that things are still uncertain because we don't know if the VBM pattern will hold. (Although I agree that he seems cautiously optimistic.)