2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread  (Read 168057 times)
Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #1525 on: October 16, 2020, 05:02:33 PM »
« edited: October 16, 2020, 05:07:25 PM by Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia »
For comparison sake...


HARRIS COUNTY: Average early votes per day
2012:      63,877  (+3.2%)
2016:      81,440  (+3.6%)
2018:      71,309  (+3.1%)

HARRIS COUNTY: Average early votes across the first 4 days
2012:      63,188  (+3.2%)
2016:      91,621  (+3.4%)
2018:      76,222  (+3.3%)
2020:  ~120,314  (+4.9%)
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1526 on: October 16, 2020, 05:03:03 PM »
Quote from: Xing on October 16, 2020, 05:01:47 PM
Not sure if anyone has posted this, but Ralston has started talking about the NV ballots so far. This is a state where the early vote is a somewhat good indicator of how things will go.



Anyone know where we were in Nevada at this point in 2016?  Those look like really good numbers for Democrats so far.
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Xing
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« Reply #1527 on: October 16, 2020, 05:05:30 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 16, 2020, 05:03:03 PM
Quote from: Xing on October 16, 2020, 05:01:47 PM
Not sure if anyone has posted this, but Ralston has started talking about the NV ballots so far. This is a state where the early vote is a somewhat good indicator of how things will go.



Anyone know where we were in Nevada at this point in 2016?  Those look like really good numbers for Democrats so far.

It's an apples-to-oranges comparison, since early voting was (AFAIK) mostly in-person in 2016, and only absentee voting has happened so far this year (I think in-person starts tomorrow), but here's the data from Week 1 of 2016:

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1528 on: October 16, 2020, 05:06:19 PM »
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #1529 on: October 16, 2020, 05:07:22 PM »
old day 4 tarrant record: 39,996
today so far in tarrant: 47,826
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1530 on: October 16, 2020, 05:09:01 PM »
Quote from: Xing on October 16, 2020, 05:05:30 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 16, 2020, 05:03:03 PM
Quote from: Xing on October 16, 2020, 05:01:47 PM
Not sure if anyone has posted this, but Ralston has started talking about the NV ballots so far. This is a state where the early vote is a somewhat good indicator of how things will go.



Anyone know where we were in Nevada at this point in 2016?  Those look like really good numbers for Democrats so far.

It's an apples-to-oranges comparison, since early voting was (AFAIK) mostly in-person in 2016, and only absentee voting has happened so far this year (I think in-person starts tomorrow), but here's the data from Week 1 of 2016:

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

Thanks.  The change from R to D is still stunning. 
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1531 on: October 16, 2020, 05:20:15 PM »
How reliable is TargetSmart for early voting? I've been seeing their Texas model shared a bunch on Twitter (Admittedly by conservatives) which shows Republicans leading the early vote 50-42.

I'm just confused considering there's no political party registration in Texas. Do they track who voted in the March primaries or something?
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swf541
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« Reply #1532 on: October 16, 2020, 05:22:54 PM »
Quote from: Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia on October 16, 2020, 05:20:15 PM
How reliable is TargetSmart for early voting? I've been seeing their Texas model shared a bunch on Twitter (Admittedly by conservatives) which shows Republicans leading the early vote 50-42.

I'm just confused considering there's no political party registration in Texas. Do they track who voted in the March primaries or something?

They were horrid in 16+18 dont use them
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1533 on: October 16, 2020, 05:24:40 PM »
Quote from: swf541 on October 16, 2020, 05:22:54 PM
Quote from: Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia on October 16, 2020, 05:20:15 PM
How reliable is TargetSmart for early voting? I've been seeing their Texas model shared a bunch on Twitter (Admittedly by conservatives) which shows Republicans leading the early vote 50-42.

I'm just confused considering there's no political party registration in Texas. Do they track who voted in the March primaries or something?

They were horrid in 16+18 dont use them

That's what I thought. They're the only early vote tracker/modeler I've seen that has partisan breakdowns for Texas and that got me suspicious
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1534 on: October 16, 2020, 05:25:55 PM »
Yeah, they're pretty awful when it comes to modelling partisan composition.

Quote from: Questionable Intent on September 11, 2020, 05:14:49 AM
As I said a few days back, be careful with Tom Bonier/Targetsmart's data modelling. It's one thing when they're utilizing registration by party stats in the states where party registration exists, but they also found very similar patterns/results in 2016 as well that turned out to be bogus in terms of determining the outcomes in those states.

Quote
*Data reflects registered party where available, and TargetSmart modeled party in states without partisan registration.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1535 on: October 16, 2020, 05:29:12 PM »
Quote from: Xing on October 16, 2020, 05:05:30 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 16, 2020, 05:03:03 PM
Quote from: Xing on October 16, 2020, 05:01:47 PM
Not sure if anyone has posted this, but Ralston has started talking about the NV ballots so far. This is a state where the early vote is a somewhat good indicator of how things will go.



Anyone know where we were in Nevada at this point in 2016?  Those look like really good numbers for Democrats so far.

It's an apples-to-oranges comparison, since early voting was (AFAIK) mostly in-person in 2016, and only absentee voting has happened so far this year (I think in-person starts tomorrow), but here's the data from Week 1 of 2016:

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

So Democrats have the same raw vote lead a week earlier and with less than a third of the vote in.
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Asta
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« Reply #1536 on: October 16, 2020, 05:43:00 PM »
Quote from: Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia on October 16, 2020, 05:20:15 PM
How reliable is TargetSmart for early voting? I've been seeing their Texas model shared a bunch on Twitter (Admittedly by conservatives) which shows Republicans leading the early vote 50-42.

I'm just confused considering there's no political party registration in Texas. Do they track who voted in the March primaries or something?

They claim they predict it based on demographics and consumer interests.

NYT/Siena poll shows that Democrats are dominating among those that already voted in MI and WI yet TargetSmart shows -2% and 9% lead for Democrats, respectively. Based on their modeling, in some states, Democrats are actually doing worse this year than in 2016. They clearly are doing something wrong.
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kph14
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« Reply #1537 on: October 16, 2020, 06:04:16 PM »
Quote from: Xing on October 16, 2020, 05:05:30 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 16, 2020, 05:03:03 PM
Quote from: Xing on October 16, 2020, 05:01:47 PM
Not sure if anyone has posted this, but Ralston has started talking about the NV ballots so far. This is a state where the early vote is a somewhat good indicator of how things will go.



Anyone know where we were in Nevada at this point in 2016?  Those look like really good numbers for Democrats so far.

It's an apples-to-oranges comparison, since early voting was (AFAIK) mostly in-person in 2016, and only absentee voting has happened so far this year (I think in-person starts tomorrow), but here's the data from Week 1 of 2016:

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

Nevada is also shown their rejected ballots here: https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=9060

1.4% of returned ballots were rejected due to signature issues. 48.5% of all rejected ballots were by registered Democrats (52.9% of all returned ballots were by Democrats)

22.5% of all rejected ballots have already been cured. Democrats are also quicker to cure their ballots than Republicans
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The Mikado
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« Reply #1538 on: October 16, 2020, 06:05:36 PM »
Judge Jenkins is happy.

Sometimes I wonder what's next for him.
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Computer89
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« Reply #1539 on: October 16, 2020, 06:06:34 PM »
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forza nocta
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« Reply #1540 on: October 16, 2020, 06:09:05 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2020, 06:16:22 PM by forza nocta »
I don't understand how anyone can take TargetSmart seriously. There is only one state that has party registration breakdowns where Republicans lead the early vote, and thats South Dakota Squinting .In literally every other state with the actual breakdowns, including deep red states like OK, KS, NE and KY,  Dems are leading, and sometimes dominating over the GOP.

In the midwestern states that has party breakdowns (PA and Iowa), Dems are dominating even more. But TargetSmart has people believing that the GOP leads in similar states like Wisconsin and Michigan?? Its infuriating to me because I'm seeing legitimate people on TV/media actually amplyifying TargetSmarts #s and making the conclusion that Biden/Dems are doing badly in states like Michigan and Wisconsin.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1541 on: October 16, 2020, 06:13:21 PM »
Is it possible early vote totals could be wildly larger than expected?  Like could we hit 100 million by Election Day?  I was worried but things are really picking up now.  The total number per day has increased each day progressively.  I think we are over 5 million for the day today.
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forza nocta
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« Reply #1542 on: October 16, 2020, 06:15:06 PM »
Harris County is an absolute juggernaut
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1543 on: October 16, 2020, 06:25:15 PM »
Quote from: forza nocta on October 16, 2020, 06:15:06 PM
Harris County is an absolute juggernaut



Anyone have an idea how the Harris vote is likely to split this year?  I'm assuming it will trend Biden at least a little bit....
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1544 on: October 16, 2020, 06:26:57 PM »
Quote from: forza nocta on October 16, 2020, 06:15:06 PM
Harris County is an absolute juggernaut



RIP Wesley Hunt
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #1545 on: October 16, 2020, 06:27:46 PM »
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 16, 2020, 06:26:57 PM
Quote from: forza nocta on October 16, 2020, 06:15:06 PM
Harris County is an absolute juggernaut



RIP Wesley Hunt
Go deeper, RIP Dan Crenshaw
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republican1993
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« Reply #1546 on: October 16, 2020, 06:29:35 PM »
1.3mil voted in harris county so getting 400k in 4 days isn't surprising - it'll start to slow down
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1547 on: October 16, 2020, 06:29:55 PM »
Quote from: Biden +3 in Texas on October 16, 2020, 06:27:46 PM
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 16, 2020, 06:26:57 PM
Quote from: forza nocta on October 16, 2020, 06:15:06 PM
Harris County is an absolute juggernaut



RIP Wesley Hunt
Go deeper, RIP Dan Crenshaw

Really?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1548 on: October 16, 2020, 06:31:55 PM »
Quote from: Biden +3 in Texas on October 16, 2020, 06:27:46 PM
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 16, 2020, 06:26:57 PM
Quote from: forza nocta on October 16, 2020, 06:15:06 PM
Harris County is an absolute juggernaut



RIP Wesley Hunt
Go deeper, RIP Dan Crenshaw

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/columnists/grieder/article/houston-home-politics-yard-signs-biden-crenshaw-15650883.php

I wouldn't be so sure.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #1549 on: October 16, 2020, 06:46:47 PM »
Quote from: republican1993 on October 16, 2020, 06:29:35 PM
1.3mil voted in harris county so getting 400k in 4 days isn't surprising - it'll start to slow down
There's uh....3 weeks of early voting this year unlike 2 in the past, so it's pretty surprising lol. Also Harris County has 7 am to 10 pm ev the final 3 days of ev in 2 weeks and one day of 24 hour voting at 3 sites on oct 29th
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