2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Crumpets]

Just looking at WI and NC, it looks like early voting is particularly strong in college counties and more neither-here-nor-there in major urban centers. I suspect students who might be doing school remotely are more keen to get voting out of the way as early as possible and might have been planning to vote absentee regardless while the concept might be newer to more settled urban types.

[Non Swing Voter]

Just looking at WI and NC, it looks like early voting is particularly strong in college counties and more neither-here-nor-there in major urban centers. I suspect students who might be doing school remotely are more keen to get voting out of the way as early as possible and might have been planning to vote absentee regardless while the concept might be newer to more settled urban types.

I think the urban numbers will also pick up considerably when in person early voting becomes more prevalent and/or more offices are open. 

[republican1993]

Does high turnout in wisconsin around the board benefit dems or repubs? dane had 218k votes in 2016, curious to see how far they can go if they break 80-20 for biden.

Wasn't some of the post-2016 analysis that low turnout in Milwaukee really hurt Clinton?  I'm keeping my eye on turnout in places like Milwaukee, Philly, Detroit, Minneapolis. 

I presume college educated white suburban voters are already turning out no matter what.

exactly i agree especially in philly area + detroit area- Milwaukee suburbs looks very high at the moment too, but they should be very good for trump - biggest ? mark is how the south west part of the state goes.

Yeah I wanna see the margins there.  I also wanna see the margins in Pittsburgh, its suburbs, Detroit suburbs and Kent County, MI.  Of course I am presuming that across the board rural areas will go for Trump around the same margins elsewhere, though perhaps that's not a fair assumption either. 

honestly me too i am curious but i cant really go off this data because early voting is when dems will get most of their vote in so if they cant get anything close to 2016 there is a red flag by november.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1312132028511383557

holy crap!

[sobo]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1312132028511383557

holy crap!

Now up to 39.3% of 2016 turnout.

[Rep Jessica]

[Dr. Arch]

Minnesota isn't messing around.

[Non Swing Voter]

What states are we most surprised and/or impressed by in terms of early turnout?

I'm surprised at South Dakota (seems random) and impressed with Wisconsin.

[Dr. Arch]

What states are we most surprised and/or impressed by in terms of early turnout?

I'm surprised at South Dakota (seems random) and impressed with Wisconsin.

Yeah, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Virginia, and North Carolina are off the charts.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Really excited for TX to start here in 11 days. I’ll be watching to see if we can increase turnout in the Rio Grande Valley in particular. If we can get them out at a respectable rate, I like Biden’s odds in Texas.

[Gass3268]

Does high turnout in wisconsin around the board benefit dems or repubs? dane had 218k votes in 2016, curious to see how far they can go if they break 80-20 for biden.

Wasn't some of the post-2016 analysis that low turnout in Milwaukee really hurt Clinton?  I'm keeping my eye on turnout in places like Milwaukee, Philly, Detroit, Minneapolis. 

I presume college educated white suburban voters are already turning out no matter what.

After being towards the bottom of the list, Milwaukee County is now 20/72 in terms of % of 2016 vote returned. Shockingly (not!) the mail is taking longer there. I would not be shocked if they jumped Dane County in terms of raw votes within the next week.

[Dr. Arch]

Does high turnout in wisconsin around the board benefit dems or repubs? dane had 218k votes in 2016, curious to see how far they can go if they break 80-20 for biden.

Wasn't some of the post-2016 analysis that low turnout in Milwaukee really hurt Clinton?  I'm keeping my eye on turnout in places like Milwaukee, Philly, Detroit, Minneapolis. 

I presume college educated white suburban voters are already turning out no matter what.

After being towards the bottom of the list, Milwaukee County is now 20/72 in terms of % of 2016 vote returned. Shockingly (not!) the mail is taking longer there. I would not be shocked if they jumped Dane County in terms of raw votes within the next week.

Yeah, MKE is going much faster than expected. It usually takes them a long while to even catch up to Dane, and they usually run behind their suburbs, which is the opposite case this time around too.

[Non Swing Voter]

What states are we most surprised and/or impressed by in terms of early turnout?

I'm surprised at South Dakota (seems random) and impressed with Wisconsin.

Yeah, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Virginia, and North Carolina are off the charts.

Virginia is pretty hilarious because it's not even a battleground state this time.  This is just turnout to show hatred and disgust to Trump.  Even I, who despises Trump, would not wait 2 hours in line to do that.

[indietraveler]

What states are we most surprised and/or impressed by in terms of early turnout?

I'm surprised at South Dakota (seems random) and impressed with Wisconsin.

Yeah, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Virginia, and North Carolina are off the charts.

Virginia is pretty hilarious because it's not even a battleground state this time.  This is just turnout to show hatred and disgust to Trump.  Even I, who despises Trump, would not wait 2 hours in line to do that.

i'd swim naked through a sea of covid to vote against Trump.

great to see these numbers picking up speed.

[Rep Jessica]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
South Dakota #earlyvote update in. At least 2.9 million people have voted in the 2020 general election https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

22.8% of 2016 total turn out! https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Really excited for TX to start here in 11 days. I’ll be watching to see if we can increase turnout in the Rio Grande Valley in particular. If we can get them out at a respectable rate, I like Biden’s odds in Texas.

You gonna be providing updates? I'll be very curious how early voting will compare to 2018 (Particularly in South Texas)

[NOVA Green]

Oregon as the first 100% VbM State is clearly behind the times here... starting to get jealous of all y'alls...

Believe out ballots won't be mailed out until around 10/13 (Presumably exceptions for Military Ballots and Americans living overseas)...

That being said our ballot drop boxes are all over the place, and literally someone could drop a match through the mail-box slot and it wouldn't even destroy a single ballot!

Obviously "unsolicited ballots" are and have always been a major problem in Oregon....   

[Mr. Matt]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
South Dakota #earlyvote update in. At least 2.9 million people have voted in the 2020 general election https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

This link is broken but South Dakota also only has about 900,000 people total. Maybe meant South Carolina?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Does high turnout in wisconsin around the board benefit dems or repubs? dane had 218k votes in 2016, curious to see how far they can go if they break 80-20 for biden.

Wasn't some of the post-2016 analysis that low turnout in Milwaukee really hurt Clinton?  I'm keeping my eye on turnout in places like Milwaukee, Philly, Detroit, Minneapolis. 

I presume college educated white suburban voters are already turning out no matter what.

https://twitter.com/CodyHausman/status/1311867765859520513?s=19

[Non Swing Voter]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
South Dakota #earlyvote update in. At least 2.9 million people have voted in the 2020 general election https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

This link is broken but South Dakota also only has about 900,000 people total. Maybe meant South Carolina?

South Dakota has a little under 90,000 votes.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/SD.html

[Non Swing Voter]

Does high turnout in wisconsin around the board benefit dems or repubs? dane had 218k votes in 2016, curious to see how far they can go if they break 80-20 for biden.

Wasn't some of the post-2016 analysis that low turnout in Milwaukee really hurt Clinton?  I'm keeping my eye on turnout in places like Milwaukee, Philly, Detroit, Minneapolis. 

I presume college educated white suburban voters are already turning out no matter what.

https://twitter.com/CodyHausman/status/1311867765859520513?s=19

God yes.  Would be great if Biden can put away this state early.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Does high turnout in wisconsin around the board benefit dems or repubs? dane had 218k votes in 2016, curious to see how far they can go if they break 80-20 for biden.

Wasn't some of the post-2016 analysis that low turnout in Milwaukee really hurt Clinton?  I'm keeping my eye on turnout in places like Milwaukee, Philly, Detroit, Minneapolis. 

I presume college educated white suburban voters are already turning out no matter what.

https://twitter.com/CodyHausman/status/1311867765859520513?s=19

God yes.  Would be great if Biden can put away this state early.

Anecdotally the parking lot was almost full when I went to drop off my ballot and I had to wait in line albeit briefly, but dropping off a completed ballot is just a campaign worker verifying the outer envelope is properly filled out and putting it in a box. Took like 30 seconds.

Minnesota updates early voting numbers Friday and I posted them here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7618641#msg7618641

That would imply Biden is putting away the state early. Also consider that Hennepin County received so many mail-in ballot requests they were still sending them out a week after they started (they started on September 18, mine was postmarked September 25), and while my ballot is included in this total it just barely made the cut being processed October 1.

Also worth noting: lots of rural areas in Minnesota are VBM only, basically any rural township outside incorporated cities and towns that lacks a suitable voting location (which is most of them since townships in Minnesota are geographically small), yet turnout as noted is somewhat weak in rural areas. That could mean that lots of those counties offices' just haven't started seriously sending out or processing ballots yet, but who knows if the anti-VBM rhetoric is affecting things. Theoretically those people can vote "in person" by dropping off their ballot like I did, but they'd have to drive to their county's government office to do so, way less convenient than it was for me. Those make up about 200k of the 1.4 million requests total (they're not actually "requests" as any registered voter in such a locale automatically gets sent a ballot.)

So these numbers probably aren't too useful yet since it's likely rural areas haven't started seriously reporting yet, but having such a head start is never a bad thing.

[Non Swing Voter]

Dems have roughly a 120,000 vote lead in Florida as of now.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

[indietraveler]

Dems have roughly a 120,000 vote lead in Florida as of now.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

Do independents generally lean a certain way in FL?

[Non Swing Voter]

Dems have roughly a 120,000 vote lead in Florida as of now.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

Do independents generally lean a certain way in FL?

I'm not sure, usually they tend to mirror the partisan breakdown of the state, e.g., if the state is 2-1 democrat then "independents" tend to lean 2-1 democrat.  FL is 50/50 so I'd guess they are really split evenly.  I think hispanics and young people tend to register independent more as well.  So in a state like Florida I'd guess they'd be 50/50 maybe slightly more Democrat this year.