2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[ajc0918]

Current Florida returned ballot composition:

Democrats: 181,020 (53.93%)
Republicans: 91,563 (27.28%)
NPA: 59,153 (17.62%)
Others: 3,938 (1.17%)

Advantage: D+89,457

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

[Gass3268]

[Non Swing Voter]

Current Florida returned ballot composition:

Democrats: 181,020 (53.93%)
Republicans: 91,563 (27.28%)
NPA: 59,153 (17.62%)
Others: 3,938 (1.17%)

Advantage: D+89,457

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

Is this around what we were expecting?  It looks good to me considering there's nothing in from Miami, but maybe that includes a lot of Dixiecrats.

[Dr. Arch]

Gass, could you explain those maps that you posted?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1311769598342189058

[Gass3268]

Glass, could you explain those maps that you posted?

Today we got the October 1 registration numbers. I compared the total registered voters today compared to the first we got after the elections in 2016 and 2018. It's pretty clear there was a cleaning/review/purge of the lists after 2016. My guess is that most of the blue counties in the first map will be red by November 1 given the current registration rates. It might take the City of Milwaukee until election day registration, but I think they will get over the 2016 number too. Dane County added over 10,000 new voters in October.

[Dr. Arch]

Glass, could you explain those maps that you posted?

Today we got the October 1 registration numbers. I compared the total registered voters today compared to the first we got after the elections in 2016 and 2018. It's pretty clear there was a cleaning/review/purge of the lists after 2016. My guess is that most of the blue counties in the first map will be red by November 1 given the current registration rates. It might take the City of Milwaukee until election day registration, but I think they will get over the 2016 number too. Dane County added over 10,000 new voters in October.

Got it. Thanks!

[Rep Jessica]

335,793 people have voted in Florida (with ~99k ballots today)

DEM: 181,106 (53.9%)
REP: 91,640 (27.3%)
NPA+Minor Parties: 63,047 (18.8%)

Google Doc:  https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

[Non Swing Voter]

It's fairly insane that almost 600,000 people have already voted in Virginia, which doesn't really have many competitive races this year.  This is just pure unmitigated hatred of Trump.  Even more stunning, when you consider that the votes are hardly rolling in from Fairfax because they haven't opened the satellite precincts yet.

[Holmes]

Miami-Dade, Orange and Pinellas have really low return rates. They must be slow at processing their ballots.

[ajc0918]

Miami-Dade, Orange and Pinellas have really low return rates. They must be slow at processing their ballots.

Pinellas only mailed ballots on the 29th. Hillsborough send theirs on the 24th. Pinellas' should start rolling in today and over the weekend in big numbers.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota's weekly update came in:
https://www.sos.state.mn.us/election-administration-campaigns/data-maps/absentee-data/#

Requests up to 1,410,011. 336,017 have been accepted.

Of those 102,904 are in Hennepin County. This is out of 405,039 requested. Total ballots returned in Hennepin County is already past 1/7 of 2016's total turnout of 679,977.

Ramsey County has 43,687 returned of 153,177 requested. That's almost 16% of 2016's 273,143.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wisconsin has updated numbers: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/WI.html

437,000 returned.

[wbrocks67]

Wisconsin has updated numbers: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/WI.html

437,000 returned.

Holy sh**t. Dane is already at nearly a 50% return rate.

[Dr. Arch]

Wisconsin has updated numbers: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/WI.html

437,000 returned.

Holy sh**t. Dane is already at nearly a 50% return rate.

Yep, and at over 50% request rate. Milwaukee is catching up too.

[kph14]

Wisconsin has updated numbers: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/WI.html

437,000 returned.

Holy sh**t. Dane is already at nearly a 50% return rate.

Yep, and at over 50% request rate. Milwaukee is catching up too.

On a side note, many in the media I think underestimate how well Wisconsin's system can cope with a large number of absentee ballots. In the 2018 general elections, over 565,000 absentee ballots were cast, that's 21% of all ballots. I don't think we'll get into much problems with counting delays if most ballot are returned before election day

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin has updated numbers: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/WI.html

437,000 returned.

Holy sh**t. Dane is already at nearly a 50% return rate.

Yep, and at over 50% request rate. Milwaukee is catching up too.

On a side note, many in the media I think underestimate how well Wisconsin's system can cope with a large number of absentee ballots. In the 2018 general elections, over 565,000 absentee ballots were cast, that's 21% of all ballots. I don't think we'll get into much problems with counting delays if most ballot are returned before election day

Yeah, Wisconsin has robust early voting since at least 2008 and those votes are treated like absentee ballots.

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin has updated numbers: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/WI.html

437,000 returned.

Holy sh**t. Dane is already at nearly a 50% return rate.

Over 1/4th of all 2016 voters have voted in Dane County.

Yep, and at over 50% request rate. Milwaukee is catching up too.

[Bootes Void]

Wisconsin has updated numbers: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/WI.html

437,000 returned.

Holy sh**t. Dane is already at nearly a 50% return rate.

[Rep Jessica]

 FLORIDA

407,313 ballots CAST (ALL Vote-By-Mail)

Democratic 216,915 (53.3%)
Republican 113,864 (28.0%)
Others 76,534 (18.7%)

[republican1993]

Does high turnout in wisconsin around the board benefit dems or repubs? dane had 218k votes in 2016, curious to see how far they can go if they break 80-20 for biden.

[Dr. Arch]

Does high turnout in wisconsin around the board benefit dems or repubs? dane had 218k votes in 2016, curious to see how far they can go if they break 80-20 for biden.

It's not just about turnout, but the places that are turning out. So far, Wisconsin is behaving like a supercharged version of 2018. That should tell you what you need to know.

[Non Swing Voter]

Does high turnout in wisconsin around the board benefit dems or repubs? dane had 218k votes in 2016, curious to see how far they can go if they break 80-20 for biden.

Wasn't some of the post-2016 analysis that low turnout in Milwaukee really hurt Clinton?  I'm keeping my eye on turnout in places like Milwaukee, Philly, Detroit, Minneapolis. 

I presume college educated white suburban voters are already turning out no matter what.

[republican1993]

Does high turnout in wisconsin around the board benefit dems or repubs? dane had 218k votes in 2016, curious to see how far they can go if they break 80-20 for biden.

Wasn't some of the post-2016 analysis that low turnout in Milwaukee really hurt Clinton?  I'm keeping my eye on turnout in places like Milwaukee, Philly, Detroit, Minneapolis. 

I presume college educated white suburban voters are already turning out no matter what.

exactly i agree especially in philly area + detroit area- Milwaukee suburbs looks very high at the moment too, but they should be very good for trump - biggest ? mark is how the south west part of the state goes.

[Non Swing Voter]

Does high turnout in wisconsin around the board benefit dems or repubs? dane had 218k votes in 2016, curious to see how far they can go if they break 80-20 for biden.

Wasn't some of the post-2016 analysis that low turnout in Milwaukee really hurt Clinton?  I'm keeping my eye on turnout in places like Milwaukee, Philly, Detroit, Minneapolis. 

I presume college educated white suburban voters are already turning out no matter what.

exactly i agree especially in philly area + detroit area- Milwaukee suburbs looks very high at the moment too, but they should be very good for trump - biggest ? mark is how the south west part of the state goes.

Yeah I wanna see the margins there.  I also wanna see the margins in Pittsburgh, its suburbs, Detroit suburbs and Kent County, MI.  Of course I am presuming that across the board rural areas will go for Trump around the same margins elsewhere, though perhaps that's not a fair assumption either.