2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Crumpets]

For Virginia, part of the shift is just the sheer changes in population.  Loudoun county has added 43,000 voters since 2016 from 232,000 to 275,000.  Meanwhile, take three coal counties from SW Virginia, Buchanan, Dickenson, and Lee they've gone from a combined 42,000 voters in 2016 to 40,000 in the latest numbers.  So, Loudoun has literally added the voting equivalent of those three counties in just 4 years.  An extreme example, but very illustrative of Va.

Yes, Northern Virginia (depending how you define it) used to be like 30% of the statewide total, it's more like 35% nowadays.  Democrats winning NOVA + Richmond area is probably enough to win statewide now even if they lose the Virginia Beach area + rural Virginia.

The Hampton Roads region as a whole seems to lean slightly Democratic but I feel like it will be the region that gives Democrats the most headaches under any Democratic president. Will not even be close to being a solid GOP region but its relatively large population is what would cause some handwringing in close state wide races.

In the Hampton Roads region Democratic support depends very much on minority turnout which tends to plummet in non-presidential elections

If the scattered reports of Trump's anti-military comments losing him a lot of support among military families are true, Hampton Roads could trend hard to the Democrats this year regardless of black turnout.

[Adam Griffin]

VBM Requests as of 9/26, % of Total 2018 Vote:
Abrams Counties: 37.90% (817453/2156818)
Georgia, Overall: 33.28%
Kemp Counties: 27.72% (496804/1792128)

[jamestroll]

For Virginia, part of the shift is just the sheer changes in population.  Loudoun county has added 43,000 voters since 2016 from 232,000 to 275,000.  Meanwhile, take three coal counties from SW Virginia, Buchanan, Dickenson, and Lee they've gone from a combined 42,000 voters in 2016 to 40,000 in the latest numbers.  So, Loudoun has literally added the voting equivalent of those three counties in just 4 years.  An extreme example, but very illustrative of Va.

Yes, Northern Virginia (depending how you define it) used to be like 30% of the statewide total, it's more like 35% nowadays.  Democrats winning NOVA + Richmond area is probably enough to win statewide now even if they lose the Virginia Beach area + rural Virginia.

The Hampton Roads region as a whole seems to lean slightly Democratic but I feel like it will be the region that gives Democrats the most headaches under any Democratic president. Will not even be close to being a solid GOP region but its relatively large population is what would cause some handwringing in close state wide races.

In the Hampton Roads region Democratic support depends very much on minority turnout which tends to plummet in non-presidential elections

That and the military presence in that area.

But the demographics of the Hampton Roads just prevent the region from being a GOP or a DEM strong hold.

The only part of Trump I like is that he has not been a war monger and has even disparaged the troops! That is a HUGE plus in my book.

[GeneralMacArthur]

The only part of Trump I like is that he has not been a war monger and has even disparaged the troops! That is a HUGE plus in my book.

His "not a war monger" involves letting Russia and Turkey do whatever they want in the Middle East, abandoning our key allies in the war against ISIS, and abandoning Syria to genocide and ruin.  Think the Kurds will want to help us next time there's an ISIS in the area and we need their help?  Nope.  That's what happens when you have no principles and betray your allies.

Meanwhile he assassinated Soleimani for no strategic reason, which caused military retaliation and escalation from Iran and brought us closer to war with that country than at any point in our history.

[Non Swing Voter]

The only part of Trump I like is that he has not been a war monger and has even disparaged the troops! That is a HUGE plus in my book.

His "not a war monger" involves letting Russia and Turkey do whatever they want in the Middle East, abandoning our key allies in the war against ISIS, and abandoning Syria to genocide and ruin.  Think the Kurds will want to help us next time there's an ISIS in the area and we need their help?  Nope.  That's what happens when you have no principles and betray your allies.

Meanwhile he assassinated Soleimani for no strategic reason, which caused military retaliation and escalation from Iran and brought us closer to war with that country than at any point in our history.

That's all true, but compared to the war criminal GWB administration he's been ok for a Republican.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1309597388072517634

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin added another 25,295 votes over the weekend. This brings it to 20.44% of all absentee requests returned which is 7.56% of all current registered voters and 8.01% of all 2016 voters. Of that 48% of the new votes came from Dane County, which shows how much of a success Democracy in the Parks was in Madison. Dane County is now at 29.64% of absentee ballots returned, which is 14.25% of registered voters and 17.10% of 2016 voters. They lead the state in the last two and are now only about 3% behind Douglas County on % of absentee returns.

Milwaukee continues to pick up the pace a little bit as they added 7,031 votes and are now up to 27,037 returned votes. I saw a tweet on Twitter on Saturday of folks just getting their absentee ballots, so that's partially why they have only returned 13.35% of absentee requests. In terms of the % of 2016 votes returned they are 36th in the state, which is exactly in the middle for all Wisconsin counties. Hopefully we see a big improvement this week.  

Other counties that have now passed 10% of 2016 voters include Brown (10.49%), Douglas (11.53%), La Crosse (10.14%), Rock (10.13%), and Sauk (10.15%). Ashland, Door, Ozaukee, Portage, and Winnebago will probably all enter this range as soon as tomorrow. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like to know!

[Dr. Arch]

Wisconsin added another 25,295 votes over the weekend. This brings it to 20.44% of all absentee requests returned which is 7.56% of all current registered voters and 8.01% of all 2016 voters. Of that 48% of the new votes came from Dane County, which shows how much of a success Democracy in the Parks was in Madison. Dane County is now at 29.64% of absentee ballots returned, which is 14.25% of registered voters and 17.10% of 2016 voters. The lead the state in the last two and are now only about 3% behind Douglas County on % of absentee returns.

Milwaukee continues to pick up the pace a little bit as they added 7,031 votes and are now up to 27,037 returned votes. I saw a tweet on Twitter on Saturday of folks just getting their absentee ballots, so that's partially why they have only returned 13.35% of absentee requests. In terms of the % of 2016 votes returned they are 36th in the state, which is exactly in the middle for all Wisconsin counties. Hopefully we see a big improvement this week. 

Other counties that have now passed 10% of 2016 voters include Brown (10.49%), Douglas (11.53%), La Crosse (10.14%), Rock (10.13%), and Sauk (10.15%). Ashland, Door, Ozaukee, Portage, and Winnebago will probably all enter this range as soon as tomorrow. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like to know!

Even better news for Dane, Democracy in the Parks is an ongoing event until October 5, I believe.

[indietraveler]

I wonder how many (if any) counties reach 100% of 2016 turnout before election day.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I hope Wisconsinites hurry up now that the extended period of receiving mail ballots has been stricken down by the courts.

[Gass3268]

I hope Wiscionsinites hurry up now that the extended period of receiving mail ballots has been stricken down by the courts.

Yeah, I was never expecting that to be upheld.

[Rep Jessica]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
9m
#earlyvote update midday 9/28

More than 1 million people have voted in the 2020 general election!
🥳
 https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1310618557961691138

[Non Swing Voter]

Wisconsin added another 25,295 votes over the weekend. This brings it to 20.44% of all absentee requests returned which is 7.56% of all current registered voters and 8.01% of all 2016 voters. Of that 48% of the new votes came from Dane County, which shows how much of a success Democracy in the Parks was in Madison. Dane County is now at 29.64% of absentee ballots returned, which is 14.25% of registered voters and 17.10% of 2016 voters. They lead the state in the last two and are now only about 3% behind Douglas County on % of absentee returns.

Milwaukee continues to pick up the pace a little bit as they added 7,031 votes and are now up to 27,037 returned votes. I saw a tweet on Twitter on Saturday of folks just getting their absentee ballots, so that's partially why they have only returned 13.35% of absentee requests. In terms of the % of 2016 votes returned they are 36th in the state, which is exactly in the middle for all Wisconsin counties. Hopefully we see a big improvement this week.  

Other counties that have now passed 10% of 2016 voters include Brown (10.49%), Douglas (11.53%), La Crosse (10.14%), Rock (10.13%), and Sauk (10.15%). Ashland, Door, Ozaukee, Portage, and Winnebago will probably all enter this range as soon as tomorrow. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like to know!

What are you looking most closely at going forward?  The percentage out of Milwaukee?  Seems like Dane county is going to definitely have high turnout so what Biden really needs is similarly high turnout out of Milwaukee. 

[GP270watch]

 Got my ballot today and already filled it out. Gonna wait for family members to fill out theirs and all meet-up and go drop them off in person.

[Non Swing Voter]

The highest turnout in NOVA appears to be from the cities:

https://wtop.com/virginia/2020/09/northern-virginia-voters-pack-recently-opened-early-voting-sites/

"When it comes to the percentage of ballots cast, as of Friday, the City of Falls Church leads the pack with more than 17% of its more than 10,000 registered voters showing up to vote early.

The City of Fairfax is next with more than 12% turnout so far in a city of just over 17,000 registered voters.

More than 5,400 voters have voted in Alexandria, which is more than 5% of its more than 101,000 registered voters."

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1310674520110510082

[kph14]

The highest turnout in NOVA appears to be from the cities:

https://wtop.com/virginia/2020/09/northern-virginia-voters-pack-recently-opened-early-voting-sites/

"When it comes to the percentage of ballots cast, as of Friday, the City of Falls Church leads the pack with more than 17% of its more than 10,000 registered voters showing up to vote early.

The City of Fairfax is next with more than 12% turnout so far in a city of just over 17,000 registered voters.

More than 5,400 voters have voted in Alexandria, which is more than 5% of its more than 101,000 registered voters."

To be honest, it is not physically possible for just one location in Fairfax county to be facilitate 10% turnout. It's much easier in smaller jurisdiction where daily capacity is much higher relative to the bigger ones.

[Non Swing Voter]

The highest turnout in NOVA appears to be from the cities:

https://wtop.com/virginia/2020/09/northern-virginia-voters-pack-recently-opened-early-voting-sites/

"When it comes to the percentage of ballots cast, as of Friday, the City of Falls Church leads the pack with more than 17% of its more than 10,000 registered voters showing up to vote early.

The City of Fairfax is next with more than 12% turnout so far in a city of just over 17,000 registered voters.

More than 5,400 voters have voted in Alexandria, which is more than 5% of its more than 101,000 registered voters."

To be honest, it is not physically possible for just one location in Fairfax county to be facilitate 10% turnout. It's much easier in smaller jurisdiction where daily capacity is much higher relative to the bigger ones.

Yes, this is the problem.  I live in Fairfax county and don't have the time or patience to stand in that 3 hour line.  Also, Fairfax County is enormous and densely populated with lots of traffic so some parts of it are probably really far from that location in terms of travel time. 

Luckily Fairfax is opening more satellite offices in October, then I expect turnout to start really swelling.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[TwinFallsDemocrat]

Got my absentee ballot today in Idaho. Voted straight DEM across the board and will return my ballot in person at the election office. Our system is pretty safe but this is not an election where I will take risks.

[ajc0918]

Really good dashboard for tracking returned ballots so far in Florida.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1310697919985713152

[Gracile]

I received my ballot in the mail today. I will fill it out and return it to a dropbox as soon as I can.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/president-results?icid=election_nav
This tracker is excellent