2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[GeneralMacArthur]

Also, when one of the most democratic areas in the state is approaching 20% turnout over a month before the election, it's hard to argue that there's no enthusiasm for Biden (or at least for voting Democrat / against Trump).

When we talk about turnout as a %, are we talking about turnout relative to the last election, turnout of relative voters, or turnout of all people eligible to vote (basically all citizens over 18)?

[Dr. Arch]

Also, when one of the most democratic areas in the state is approaching 20% turnout over a month before the election, it's hard to argue that there's no enthusiasm for Biden (or at least for voting Democrat / against Trump).

We need more reports like these in other Biden-favorable areas in other states like GA, OH, WI, MI, etc.

I am trying to make sense of the turnout in WI.  Dane numbers look similar to what I'm posting, but Milwaukee numbers look bad.  But maybe they are just slower at reporting/sending out ballots?

Milwaukee always looks bad early. The county moves slower in general and catches up much later.

[Xing]

Also, when one of the most democratic areas in the state is approaching 20% turnout over a month before the election, it's hard to argue that there's no enthusiasm for Biden (or at least for voting Democrat / against Trump).

When we talk about turnout as a %, are we talking about turnout relative to the last election, turnout of relative voters, or turnout of all people eligible to vote (basically all citizens over 18)?

I believe it's the % of registered voters.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Also, when one of the most democratic areas in the state is approaching 20% turnout over a month before the election, it's hard to argue that there's no enthusiasm for Biden (or at least for voting Democrat / against Trump).

When we talk about turnout as a %, are we talking about turnout relative to the last election, turnout of relative voters, or turnout of all people eligible to vote (basically all citizens over 18)?

I believe it's the % of registered voters.

I see.  About 75% of Americans are registered to vote, so when we talk about the typical 60% of eligible voters who vote in presidential elections, that's really 80% of registered voters.  So 80% is the target number, and Democrats would like to see above 80% in favorable areas.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, when one of the most democratic areas in the state is approaching 20% turnout over a month before the election, it's hard to argue that there's no enthusiasm for Biden (or at least for voting Democrat / against Trump).

When we talk about turnout as a %, are we talking about turnout relative to the last election, turnout of relative voters, or turnout of all people eligible to vote (basically all citizens over 18)?

turnout of ALL registered voters in the city.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, when one of the most democratic areas in the state is approaching 20% turnout over a month before the election, it's hard to argue that there's no enthusiasm for Biden (or at least for voting Democrat / against Trump).

We need more reports like these in other Biden-favorable areas in other states like GA, OH, WI, MI, etc.

I am trying to make sense of the turnout in WI.  Dane numbers look similar to what I'm posting, but Milwaukee numbers look bad.  But maybe they are just slower at reporting/sending out ballots?

Milwaukee always looks bad early. The county moves slower in general and catches up much later.

oh ok.  I really hope Dems are targeting that for turnout...  and soon...

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, when one of the most democratic areas in the state is approaching 20% turnout over a month before the election, it's hard to argue that there's no enthusiasm for Biden (or at least for voting Democrat / against Trump).

When we talk about turnout as a %, are we talking about turnout relative to the last election, turnout of relative voters, or turnout of all people eligible to vote (basically all citizens over 18)?

I believe it's the % of registered voters.

I see.  About 75% of Americans are registered to vote, so when we talk about the typical 60% of eligible voters who vote in presidential elections, that's really 80% of registered voters.  So 80% is the target number, and Democrats would like to see above 80% in favorable areas.

We are definitely going to get there in Falls Church no doubt.  I expected a huge flow of voters the first few days.  However, I expected the numbers to drop substantially after say 2 days of this.  There are no signs of it stopping.  I myself am obviously highly motivated but I haven't voted yet in Fairfax because I don't have any interest in standing in enormous lines.  I'm guessing that's the calculus going on for many so I could see the steady flow continuing.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/TexasTribune/status/1309635518477590535?s=19

In her ruling, Marmolejo acknowledged the burden the decision could put on local and state election officials, who will have to recalibrate voting machines or reprint ballots. But she reasoned that the potential harm for those suing, including the Texas Association for Retired Americans, was “outweighed by the inconveniences resulting.”

[Virginiá]

Not that I don't support the idea of straight ticket voting, but shouldn't changing election rules as meaningful as straight ticket voting this close to an election be blocked under the purcell principle? We're just a bit over a month from election day. If there was a reasonable argument to block the repeal of straight ticket by the legislature, either a lawsuit or ruling should have been filed or issued sooner. Like, the repeal didn't just happen months ago. It was passed 3 years ago!

[Non Swing Voter]

Apparently South Dakota and Wisconsin have the highest turnout so far relative to total turnout in 2016.

South Dakota = 9.5%

Wisconsin - 5.7%

[Gass3268]

Madison, Wisconsin is doing a citywide "Democracy in the Park" event tomorrow. This allows more locations for people to drop off their ballots, have clerk make sure everything was done correctly, and even be a witness if necessary.

Democracy in the Park is an event created by, planned by, staffed by, and paid for by the City Clerk’s Office.  This event will simply make it easier for residents who have received their requested absentee ballot to drop it off in person.

This is not in-person absentee voting. Poll workers will not be able to issue anyone a ballot at the park. The only way to receive a ballot right now is through the mail. In-person absentee voting begins October 20, and voters will be able to receive and cast an absentee ballot at any of our absentee voting sites at that time.

The poll workers in each City park tomorrow have taken an oath of office. They are the same dedicated public servants who administer elections at your polling place on Election Day.

Absentee voting by mail is underway. Voters may return their absentee ballots by mail, or in person. Our ballot drop boxes are still on order, and voters have been requesting a location close to home where they can deliver their ballot.

By having poll workers receive the delivery of the absentee ballot, we are able to double-check that the voter has completed the certificate envelope so the ballot can be counted at the polls on Election Day.

Voters who want a poll worker to serve as their absentee witness need to bring their ballot and envelope from home, show the blank ballot to the poll worker, mark the ballot in a way that the poll worker cannot see how they are voting, and then seal the ballot in the envelope they received in the mail.

The City Clerk’s Office is non-partisan. Regardless of who people vote for, our goal is that each eligible voter will be able to cast a ballot and have that ballot counted.

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1309592116465750016?s=20

Sounds cool right? Well of course the WI-GOP wants to kill it.

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1309624174336528389?s=20

We'll have to see if anything more comes of it before things start tomorrow.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1309649589105037312

4,536 returned - 2,694 (59%) Dem; 568 (13%) Rep; 1,274 (28%) Other.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/TexasTribune/status/1309635518477590535?s=19

In her ruling, Marmolejo acknowledged the burden the decision could put on local and state election officials, who will have to recalibrate voting machines or reprint ballots. But she reasoned that the potential harm for those suing, including the Texas Association for Retired Americans, was “outweighed by the inconveniences resulting.”

What's wrong with rhis, people should be more independent minded

[republican1993]

are there any good signs for republicans in early voting so far? i don't know how to read this i know reps won't be winning this vote but curious for any trends anyone has noticed. i know in the south a big thing to watch is the white % and see how that is compared to the black %.

[Dr. Arch]

are there any good signs for republicans in early voting so far? i don't know how to read this i know reps won't be winning this vote but curious for any trends anyone has noticed. i know in the south a big thing to watch is the white % and see how that is compared to the black %.

Not necessarily. Biden is doing a lot better with white voters in general. That might be a better idea in the southern states, perhaps.

Overall, what you want to look at is turnout, and where it's coming from, like Falls Church. So far, it's looking more like 2018.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I think it's hard to make any sort of determinations based on the numbers so far.

Yes, the early vote demographics clearly favor Democrats.  What does that mean for the election?  Does it mean Democrats are turning out in huge numbers?  Or does it just mean that lots of Democrats are voting early/VBM while lots of Republicans are planning to vote in-person day-of?

[republican1993]

are there any good signs for republicans in early voting so far? i don't know how to read this i know reps won't be winning this vote but curious for any trends anyone has noticed. i know in the south a big thing to watch is the white % and see how that is compared to the black %.

Not necessarily. Biden is doing a lot better with white voters in general. That might be a better idea in the southern states, perhaps.

Overall, what you want to look at is turnout, and where it's coming from, like Falls Church. So far, it's looking more like 2018.

yeah true but it looks like the rural areas are bringing their ballots back in high % too - i think the cities/urban areas are more to bank their votes early and slow down hopefully. NC + WI look pretty good IMO. the dems were up 400k in early voting before election day in NC and still lost.

[republican1993]

I think it's hard to make any sort of determinations based on the numbers so far.

Yes, the early vote demographics clearly favor Democrats.  What does that mean for the election?  Does it mean Democrats are turning out in huge numbers?  Or does it just mean that lots of Democrats are voting early/VBM while lots of Republicans are planning to vote in-person day-of?

that's what i'm trying to figure out i know dems in urban areas are energized and going to bank their vote early within the first week or two of mail in voting, but i'm curious how things will look in mid/late october (i don't care about Virginia and these blue states def more energized to get rid of trump) im more curious about the swing states in the south/midwest. I know many people like myself who are republicans who are voting on election day ( i just like the tradition and excitement of it all)

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1309691664177549312?s=21

[Tender Branson]

Incredible how people are trying to read anything out of those early numbers ...

That’s like trying to predict how the winter will go based on the first snowfall of the season.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1309691664177549312?s=21

LOL so Republicans are allowed to still have their registration drives and door to door knocking BS but Democrats can't? Okay

[Brittain33]

are there any good signs for republicans in early voting so far? i don't know how to read this i know reps won't be winning this vote but curious for any trends anyone has noticed. i know in the south a big thing to watch is the white % and see how that is compared to the black %.

There were good numbers out of Waukesha county.
Other than that, the fact we “know” that avoiding mail-in ballots this year is a touchstone of conservative identity provided a plausible excuse for underperformance instead of lack of enthusiasm.

[kph14]

Incredible how people are trying to read anything out of those early numbers ...

That’s like trying to predict how the winter will go based on the first snowfall of the season.

Early voting numbers are in general pretty useless for predictions in higher turnout elections like the presidential election. That's even true close to election day. For low turnout elections (e.g. Wisconsin's spring election) they were useful to gauge enthusiasm

[redjohn]

Incredible how people are trying to read anything out of those early numbers ...

That’s like trying to predict how the winter will go based on the first snowfall of the season.

Early voting numbers are in general pretty useless for predictions in higher turnout elections like the presidential election. That's even true close to election day. For low turnout elections (e.g. Wisconsin's spring election) they were useful to gauge enthusiasm

Yep. We know turnout is likely to be way up among both sides, so all this is confirming is a high level of interest in voting which we already knew was the case.