2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[kph14]

When do we start getting consistent daily updates from states with modeled/registered party IDs? I know they don't mean too much, except maybe this year when most voters are likely to vote using VBM, but at least it gives me something to look forward to in this subforum.

As with many aspects of North Carolina voting and registration, the data on who has returned an absentee ballot is publicly available.

https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/absentee-data

Current Accepted Ballots:
Democrat — 13,075 (57.6%)
Unaffiliated — 6,557 (28.9%)
Republican — 3,018 (13.3%)
Other — 59 (0.3%)

Do with that what you will. It's only 22,709 votes. Or 0.5% of the total votes cast in North Carolina in 2016.

We are now up to 45,141 accepted ballots. There are already the first voters who cured their ballots with an affidavit and also so the first voters who sent in their second ballot correctly after their first was rejected because of missing witness information.

When voters got a second ballot after their first got rejected, both ballots remain in the list. Therefore data about the rejection rate will be unreliable unless it is corrected for this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oklahoma County getting an early jump on mailing ballots:

https://twitter.com/CarmenMForman/status/1305956290909405184

[republican1993]

when do we usually get a lot of votes coming in per day for florida? i am excited to see how they trend.

[psychprofessor]

when do we usually get a lot of votes coming in per day for florida? i am excited to see how they trend.

Follow Steve Schale on twitter - although he is a DEM operative he knows a lot about early vote trends and puts the information in context.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm hoping either tonight or tomorrow night, the absentee voter file will be available via SoS:

https://elections.sos.ga.gov/Elections/voterabsenteefile.do

I'm thinking maybe since the state is processing & mailing all online mail ballots requested by September 15 (and mailing them out on 9/18), that is why it has taken so long for this data to appear (usually it shows up in early September). After today, the counties will begin processing & mailing all mail ballot requests themselves, so perhaps we'll see the absentee file finally appear sometime this week at minimum.

It's finally up! Unfortunately, there's no statewide file like usual - just 159 individual county files.

I'm obviously not digging through the individual files and I've never had much luck at merging them in the past, but based on packed/unpacked file sizes and the number of voters in the largest counties, it appears we're somewhere in the vicinity of 875,000 - 950,000 requested mail ballots in GA as of Tuesday (this includes people who voted in the primary who were 65+, who automatically receive ballots for all elections within a cycle).

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm hoping either tonight or tomorrow night, the absentee voter file will be available via SoS:

https://elections.sos.ga.gov/Elections/voterabsenteefile.do

I'm thinking maybe since the state is processing & mailing all online mail ballots requested by September 15 (and mailing them out on 9/18), that is why it has taken so long for this data to appear (usually it shows up in early September). After today, the counties will begin processing & mailing all mail ballot requests themselves, so perhaps we'll see the absentee file finally appear sometime this week at minimum.

It's finally up! Unfortunately, there's no statewide file like usual - just 159 individual county files.

I'm obviously not digging through the individual files and I've never had much luck at merging them in the past, but based on packed/unpacked file sizes and the number of voters in the largest counties, it appears we're somewhere in the vicinity of 875,000 - 950,000 requested mail ballots in GA as of Tuesday (this includes people who voted in the primary who were 65+, who automatically receive ballots for all elections within a cycle).

I can confirm that the new Georgia ballot request site works - the file shows my application was received.

[kph14]

when do we usually get a lot of votes coming in per day for florida? i am excited to see how they trend.

You can find that data here:
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

So far 67 voters have returned their ballots.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1306288566515924992

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1306288566515924992

Glorious news!  Honestly, I wasn’t expecting us to win this one

[Gass3268]

Some legit good data for Democrats here:

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1306427548616863744?s=20

[libertpaulian]

Some legit good data for Democrats here:

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1306427548616863744?s=20

This is going to be an epic election.  We could see turnout in the 150-160 million range.

[Horus]

Some legit good data for Democrats here:

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1306427548616863744?s=20

Gwinnett could be 60-40 Biden with those numbers.

[Gass3268]

64.4% of 18-29 year olds with VBM requests have not voted before.

https://twitter.com/cautiouslefty/status/1306448385256435713?s=21

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

64.4% of 18-29 year olds with VBM requests have not voted before.

https://twitter.com/cautiouslefty/status/1306448385256435713?s=21

[Adam Griffin]

It's never great to get too excited about 18-29 non-voter figures, because, well, a large percentage of them wouldn't have been eligible to vote four years ago, and all of the rest would have been 18-24 (which of course is the lowest turnout segment of voters). This number does seems higher than usual, but it's not uncommon for 40-50% of first-time voters to fall into this category.

Another factor to consider is that many of these people probably voted in 2018 (the stat isn't "first-time voters" technically, but non-2016 voters). Many of these voters are likely already baked into the demographic cake of 2018's results.

The same stat is still interesting, albeit when it's calculated differently than on the website: 19% of '16 non-voter mail applications are from 18-29s.

Also, given that like half of the total requested ballots are automatically being sent out to senior citizens because of their age and the fact they voted by mail in the primary, 18-29s being close to 15% of all who have proactively applied for mail ballots for the general election alone is pretty amazing. Under normal circumstances, you'd probably expect that number in GA to be in the 5-10% range.

[wbrocks67]

Has anyone seen any updates on PA? There hasn't been any reporting that I can find that says *when* the SC expects to rule on the ballot/green party issue. I would expect they would be doing it ASAP so they can get ballots out, but ...

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's never great to get too excited about 18-29 non-voter figures, because, well, a large percentage of them wouldn't have been eligible to vote four years ago, and all of the rest would have been 18-24 (which of course is the lowest turnout segment of voters). This number does seems higher than usual, but it's not uncommon for 40-50% of first-time voters to fall into this category.

Another factor to consider is that many of these people probably voted in 2018 (the stat isn't "first-time voters" technically, but non-2016 voters). Many of these voters are likely already baked into the demographic cake of 2018's results.

The same stat is still interesting, albeit when it's calculated differently than on the website: 19% of '16 non-voter mail applications are from 18-29s.

Also, given that like half of the total requested ballots are automatically being sent out to senior citizens because of their age and the fact they voted by mail in the primary, 18-29s being close to 15% of all who have proactively applied for mail ballots for the general election alone is pretty amazing. Under normal circumstances, you'd probably expect that number in GA to be in the 5-10% range.

An anecdote: one of my kids (in her late 20s) has always hated politics and didn't even want to have it discussed around her.  The other day I texted her and said "I know you're not interested in politics, so I'll only mention this once because I think it's important.  I'd like to encourage you to register and vote for Biden."  She responded "way ahead of you".

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1306311077815291904

[It’s so Joever]

Some legit good data for Democrats here:

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1306427548616863744?s=20

This is going to be an epic election.  We could see turnout in the 150-160 million range.

If Asians save America I will be so happy.

[wbrocks67]

OK, update looks like Greens will likely get kicked off the ballot in PA.

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1306610433944674306

[Not Me, Us]

OK, update looks like Greens will likely get kicked off the ballot in PA.

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1306610433944674306

This is great news.

[Rep Jessica]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4h
#earlyvote update 9/17

81,012 voters have cast ballots in the 2020 general election https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/CahnEmily/status/1306634061776068613

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1306669120684003331

[Crumpets]

Requests as a % of total turnout in 2016:

Update of this map: