2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Tintrlvr]

Remaining voters in Florida lean Biden

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1319680628871352320?s=21

What does this mean

I found it confusing too, but I think it means that Biden's vote share in the three categories significantly outpaces the percentage of Democratic voters, meaning that Biden is winning large chunks of Independents and some Republicans.

To simplify it further, when you break all this down it adds up to being on track for about a Biden +5 victory, which fits with the polls and by the way would be the biggest win in Florida since Bush 2004.

I may be misreading, but this seems like somewhat circular logic, as the estimates are based on a poll showing Biden +5 with registered voters. So, the Biden +5 result you get by doing the math is only really as strong as that poll, not so much the very concrete data we have on the early voting numbers from Florida.

It's not an estimate; these are actual voters who actually responded to NYT polls and have since actually voted (or not voted). The NYT knows who responded to their polls and knows who each of those people said they were voting for, and they can monitor whether those people have voted yet.

It's not perfect, but it assumes that the voters were all honest when they responded to the NYT's polls. Among likely voters who have responded to the NYT's polls of Florida, the remaining non-voters more or less break even. It's true that the polls might have some methodological error (for example, they might be including too many Black voters, or not enough North Florida Dixiecrats, or something), but it just means that there's nothing new to glean from the early voting figures. It's worth pointing out that the early voting figures, in terms of partisanship, line up well with what the NYT polling said they would be.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1319734224543469581

[Non Swing Voter]

As of 3 pm, 19k have voted in Travis, leaving it about 11k shy of hitting my personal 400k total goal by the end of the day. Four more hours!

Weather caused some sites in Harris to close temporarily, but they should still be on track to hit a million by end of day.

Dems are doing what they need to in their base areas.

Are your goals benchmarks for a Biden win or something else?

[Non Swing Voter]

Any TX people that can tell us what the early voting trends can tell us about congressional races?  I'm assuming boosted turnout in the cities and suburbs is not helpful for certain republicans.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

As of 3 pm, 19k have voted in Travis, leaving it about 11k shy of hitting my personal 400k total goal by the end of the day. Four more hours!

Weather caused some sites in Harris to close temporarily, but they should still be on track to hit a million by end of day.

Dems are doing what they need to in their base areas.

Are your goals benchmarks for a Biden win or something else?

Just my EV goals. I made another thread elsewhere about my actual benchmarks for a Biden win, such as him netting 300k+ in each of Harris and Travis and increasing RGV turnout beyond 2016, as well as expanding on the O’Rourke map in suburbia. All signs point to these things happening.

And it looks like Harris has hit that million mark! Anyway, my goals for Travis are to be at 500k by the end of EV next Friday and for Harris to surpass 1.3 million. That would put both blue counties at above 100% of total 2016 turnout before Election Day votes even come in.

[MATTROSE94]

Any TX people that can tell us what the early voting trends can tell us about congressional races?  I'm assuming boosted turnout in the cities and suburbs is not helpful for certain republicans.

From what I can determine, John Cornyn is on track for a 2002 or 2008-esque Senate victory, as there is a lot of ticket-splitting in the Dallas, Houston, Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio, and El Paso suburbs.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Any TX people that can tell us what the early voting trends can tell us about congressional races?  I'm assuming boosted turnout in the cities and suburbs is not helpful for certain republicans.

From what I can determine, John Cornyn is on track for a 2002 or 2008-esque Senate victory, as there is a lot of ticket-splitting in the Dallas, Houston, Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio, and El Paso suburbs.

What evidence do we have of a 10+ point Cornyn win happening? Feels like this take has been heavily implied since Cornyn did that "Wear a mask and don't cuss" ad earlier this week and folks theorized he's now locked up the "Moderate Suburban" vote:

https://twitter.com/larry_irving/status/1319493058833141761?s=20

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any TX people that can tell us what the early voting trends can tell us about congressional races?  I'm assuming boosted turnout in the cities and suburbs is not helpful for certain republicans.

From what I can determine, John Cornyn is on track for a 2002 or 2008-esque Senate victory, as there is a lot of ticket-splitting in the Dallas, Houston, Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio, and El Paso suburbs.

That seems unlikely. I think he has potential for a 5%+ digit victory, but I struggle to see how he gets passed a 10% margin in this sort of national environment in a state that looks very different than it did a decade or two ago. People really overestimate the number of “moderate suburban Republicans” there are who actual split ticket; most ticket splitting tends to come from lower propensity voters in states like WV and MT, who are more able to be persuaded by local politics

[Non Swing Voter]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363

nice summary of early voting. 

Here's a blurb about Michigan:

"John Sellek (R), Harbor Strategic in Michigan: “Polling here shows Biden leading amongst those who voted early so far, yet we are consistently seeing Republican voters expressing slightly higher excitement about voting than Democrats. We are also seeing Republicans conducting voter registration in blue-collar areas that's never been possible before. ... However, if turnout is over 5 million, which would break Michigan's 2008 record, it becomes very difficult to find enough Republicans to keep up at the statewide level.”

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Day 10 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 22)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   611,788     30.6%
2016:   789,968     35.4%  (66.5% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   687,878     29.4%
2020:   951,066     38.3%  (72.5% of 2016 turnout)

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   348,793     29.6%
2016:   440,956     34.3%  (62.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   429,147     32.1%
2020:   525,057     37.5%  (69.2% of 2016 turnout)

TARRANT COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   329,572     33.8%
2016:   416,745     38.7%  (68.2% of 2012 turnout)  
2018:   376,641     33.6%
2020:   443,796     36.6%  (66.4% of 2016 turnout)

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   291,937     31.8%
2016:   385,013     36.8%  (75.0% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   337,767     30.8%
2020:   430,936     36.2%  (73.1% of 2016 turnout)

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:   176,395     27.9%
2016:   304,808     42.0%  (78.8% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   296,596     38.2%
2020:   370,970     43.4%  (79.2% of 2016 turnout)

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   171,540     37.4%
2016:   249,793     46.5%  (82.5% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   234,992     40.5%
2020:   311,851     48.1%  (86.3% of 2016 turnout)

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   133,351     34.5%
2016:   195,432     42.0%  (80.5% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   186,144     37.4%
2020:   264,998     46.9%  (88.7% of 2016 turnout)

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:     74,472     19.4%
2016:   121,853     28.5%  (70.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   114,542     25.1%
2020:   147,115     30.1%  (68.7% of 2016 turnout)

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:   129,903     38.2%
2016:   173,814     43.0%  (79.2% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   160,649     37.2%
2020:   205,490     42.6%  (78.4% of 2016 turnout)

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     81,491     26.7%
2016:   113,702     33.6%  (81.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     92,537     25.6%
2020:   122,371     31.3%  (70.6% of 2016 turnout) (I've got a feeling folks are gonna be asking about this. Just wait for the next 2 days when total votes shoot up in the last 2 days of early 2016 voting)

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:     81,993     32.4%
2016:   134,072     44.7%  (82.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   134,570     40.4%
2020:   181,241     48.1%  (89.3% of 2016 turnout)

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     99,145     37.4%
2016:   128,734     41.3%  (74.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   114,579     34.4%
2020:   146,144     39.5%  (71.4% of 2016 turnout)

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     67,589     36.5%
2016:     85,489     41.1%  (77.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     75,122     35.3%
2020:     95,643     41.9%  (77.8% of 2016 turnout)

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     33,136     18.4%
2016:     50,363     25.5%  (65.5% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     44,566     21.5%
2020:     64,377     29.4%  (69.9% of 2016 turnout)

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     48,087     25.1%
2016:     60,281     30.2%  (62.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     55,088     26.9%
2020:     75,433     35.6%  (72.3% of 2016 turnout)

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319739421546209282?s=21
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319738380012474368?s=21

[Crumpets]

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2020:   181,241     48.1%  (89.3% of 2016 turnout)

 

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319739421546209282?s=21
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319738380012474368?s=21

Why does this guy never say what the daily mail numbers are? Seeing the totals isn’t really helpful.

[Alben Barkley]

They ain't kidding when they say everything is bigger in Texas.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1319712820892762113

[philly09]

Bedwetting time.

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1319744200947257344

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1319745458965798913

https://twitter.com/GA_Dawgsfan/status/1319745124142862343

[Bootes Void]

These guys are being misleading. Show the daily mail amounts as well

[bilaps]

These guys are being misleading. Show the daily mail amounts as well

They are showing it.

Dems lead is down to 395k with the latest update.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2020:   181,241     48.1%  (89.3% of 2016 turnout)

 

With just today's in-person vote, they're currently at 50% turnout and 93% of 2016's vote share.

And they still got 2.5 hours of voting!

EDIT: Another 10k day tomorrow and they'll be at 99-100% of 2016 total votes. And of course, there's still another week of voting in Texas!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2020:   181,241     48.1%  (89.3% of 2016 turnout)

 

With just today's in-person vote, they're currently at 50% turnout and 93% of 2016's vote share.

And they still got 2.5 hours of voting!

In b4 OSR or ForumLurker says this is good for Trump because he won it in 2016.

[Gass3268]

Totals for all groups are dropping each day. Wonder if we’ll see an uptick this weekend?

[Stockdale for Veep]

The next 11 days are going to be so much fun!

[BudgieForce]

Totals for all groups are dropping each day. Wonder if we’ll see an uptick this weekend?

Me and my family are all voting this weekend because we all have stuff to do during the week. Probably a very common situation.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: As of 5 PM, 200,424 votes have been cast on Thursday.

This includes 154,811 in-person votes and 45,613 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,616,098 in-person & 914,730 by mail, for a grand total of 2,530,828 (60.76% of 2016 total vote). Georgia has officially passed its 2016 EV total.

[Tekken_Guy]

Maybe the big surge in early voting means fewer people who vote on Election Day? Maybe it is the weekend effect? Maybe this doesn’t take into account  “Biden Republicans”?