2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread (user search)
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  2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread  (Read 167835 times)
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,735
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #25 on: October 23, 2020, 09:01:06 AM »

We've officially crossed 50,000,000 votes nation-wide.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,735
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #26 on: October 23, 2020, 02:16:05 PM »

Remaining voters in Florida lean Biden



What does this mean

I found it confusing too, but I think it means that Biden's vote share in the three categories significantly outpaces the percentage of Democratic voters, meaning that Biden is winning large chunks of Independents and some Republicans.

To simplify it further, when you break all this down it adds up to being on track for about a Biden +5 victory, which fits with the polls and by the way would be the biggest win in Florida since Bush 2004.

I may be misreading, but this seems like somewhat circular logic, as the estimates are based on a poll showing Biden +5 with registered voters. So, the Biden +5 result you get by doing the math is only really as strong as that poll, not so much the very concrete data we have on the early voting numbers from Florida.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,735
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #27 on: October 23, 2020, 04:10:14 PM »

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2020:   181,241     48.1%  (89.3% of 2016 turnout)

 
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