2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1318263458018873345

[Non Swing Voter]

WAIT WHAT?  Dem Florida lead now 800K?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=0

tell me this is off?

[Gass3268]

Pretty funny how the absentee dynamics in both Florida and Nevada basically flipped.

[Brittain33]

WAIT WHAT?  Dem Florida lead now 800K?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=0

tell me this is off?

Look at returned, not requested

[Non Swing Voter]

WAIT WHAT?  Dem Florida lead now 800K?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=0

tell me this is off?

Look at returned, not requested

You're right.  Something happened to that site.  It used to pop up on returned, the wrong page loaded this time.  Nevermind, false alarm.

[soundchaser]

You're right.  Something happened to that site.  It used to pop up on returned, the wrong page loaded this time.  Nevermind, false alarm.

Nearly gave me heart palpitations. Still, returned is at 475k, so I expect that mythical 600k total lead isn't far off.

[Roblox]

Just voted (for the first time) here in Virginia for Biden.

[Holmes]

Just voted (for the first time) here in Virginia for Biden.

King

[Gass3268]

Waited about 40 minutes to vote in Skokie, Illinois on the first day of expanded early voting in Cook County. Would have been quicker if we didn't have almost 60 judges we had to vote on. Overheard folks saying "Can't wait to vote this guys out" and "We helped save the world" if you want to know want to know what the general mood was.

[Red Wall]

Biden is doomed in Florida
https://twitter.com/athein1/status/1318195760177975296?s=19

[soundchaser]

Biden is doomed in Florida
https://twitter.com/athein1/status/1318195760177975296?s=19

Don't Republicans usually win the early voting period in Florida, even on the first day? If that's the case, and we're still waiting for Miami numbers, this doesn't seem good for Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden is doomed in Florida
https://twitter.com/athein1/status/1318195760177975296?s=19

Party registration is not equal to voting intention.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Day 6 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 18)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   384,618     19.2%
2016:   527,631     23.6%
2018:   468,549     20.0%
2020:   628,708     25.3%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   228,376     19.4%
2016:   311,307     24.2%
2018:   307,342     23.0%
2020:   341,607     24.4%


BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   195,494     21.3%
2016:   255,371     24.4%
2018:   226,845     20.7%
2020:   270,323     22.7%

- SNIP -

This is somewhat misleading, because in previous years early voting in TX began on a monday, but this year it began on a Tuesday. So the first 6 days in previous years includes 5 weekdays and a Saturday, whereas this year it is 4 weekdays, a Saturday, and a Sunday. Since turnout is typically lower on weekends and especially on Sundays (with limited hours on Sundays) that probably makes the comparison understate how relatively high turnout really is this year. For example, Bexar county probably would not be behind 2016 if the comparison were based on same days of the week.

[NOVA Green]

Still waiting for the Oregon Secretary of State to start posting daily ballot returns by County / Party.

However it appears that Multnomah County (Portland and East County Suburbs) is well outpacing 2016 early turnout numbers.

This is a Democratic stronghold County with only 11.4% of the voters Registered Republican as of September 2020.

Early voting that has shattered records nationwide seems to be playing out in Multnomah County, where more than 59,000 ballots had been returned through Saturday, three days after they were mailed out. That’s the equivalent to 10.44% of registered voters.

That’s a faster pace than in 2016′s presidential election, when it took six days to reach equivalent numbers, both in percentage terms and absolute numbers.

“The very early turnout seems to match what we’re seeing across the country,” said Jim Moore, a political scientist at Pacific University. “The turnout looks like it’s about 30% ahead of where it was in 2016. That leads me to believe we’re going to have a record turnout in the number of voters, though maybe not the percentage of voters.”

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2020/10/early-voting-turnout-running-ahead-of-2016-in-multnomah-county-mirroring-national-trends.html

[Dr. Arch]

Biden is doomed in Florida

lmao. It literally said that there was a postal day off. It's not like the ballots disappeared into the ether. Try harder.

[Rep Jessica]

https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/statistics/Unofficial-Daily-Ballot-Returns-10-19-2020.pdf

Oregon

[NOVA Green]

https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/statistics/Unofficial-Daily-Ballot-Returns-10-19-2020.pdf

Oregon

Thanks Rep Jessica!

They used to post it prominently on the front page, so I guess I was lazy and didn't look hard enough.

Much appreciated!!!

[LimoLiberal]

I'm laughing about how one user made one post randomly declaring a 600K lead in Florida was the
the tipping point and now it's a tenet of the Atlas holy book.

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm laughing about how one user made one post randomly declaring a 600K lead in Florida was the
the tipping point and now it's a tenet of the Atlas holy book.

Who was the poster who even made that comment?  Do we even remember at this point?  Bootstrap paradox?

[Rep Jessica]

I'm laughing about how one user made one post randomly declaring a 600K lead in Florida was the
the tipping point and now it's a tenet of the Atlas holy book.

I wouldn't feel good about Bidens chances if I was supporting him unless he was upwards of 750k vbm. Florida 2016 and 2018 were both unfavorable for democrats and they really do have to over perform with that in mind. Florida tends to do its own thing.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Day 6 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 18)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   384,618     19.2%
2016:   527,631     23.6%
2018:   468,549     20.0%
2020:   628,708     25.3%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   228,376     19.4%
2016:   311,307     24.2%
2018:   307,342     23.0%
2020:   341,607     24.4%


BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   195,494     21.3%
2016:   255,371     24.4%
2018:   226,845     20.7%
2020:   270,323     22.7%

- SNIP -

This is somewhat misleading, because in previous years early voting in TX began on a monday, but this year it began on a Tuesday. So the first 6 days in previous years includes 5 weekdays and a Saturday, whereas this year it is 4 weekdays, a Saturday, and a Sunday. Since turnout is typically lower on weekends and especially on Sundays (with limited hours on Sundays) that probably makes the comparison understate how relatively high turnout really is this year. For example, Bexar county probably would not be behind 2016 if the comparison were based on same days of the week.

I was more anticipating a page of "TX voting slowed to a crawl. I knew it was too good to be true" takes.

Just posting them as I see them. I'm very aware of the different weekdays between 2012/2016/2018/2020. I'm not sure how I'm gonna do the comparison updates when we get to the extra week of voting (Perhaps comparing it to turnout in those years)

[Bootes Void]

I'm laughing about how one user made one post randomly declaring a 600K lead in Florida was the
the tipping point and now it's a tenet of the Atlas holy book.

I wouldn't feel good about Bidens chances if I was supporting him unless he was upwards of 750k vbm. Florida 2016 and 2018 were both unfavorable for democrats and they really do have to over perform with that in mind. Florida tends to do its own thing.

Do people keep ignoring the polling and make up their own metrics and go by that.

[Rep Jessica]

I'm laughing about how one user made one post randomly declaring a 600K lead in Florida was the
the tipping point and now it's a tenet of the Atlas holy book.

I wouldn't feel good about Bidens chances if I was supporting him unless he was upwards of 750k vbm. Florida 2016 and 2018 were both unfavorable for democrats and they really do have to over perform with that in mind. Florida tends to do its own thing.

Do people keep ignoring the polling and make up their own metrics and go by that.

The polling had gillam and nelson up by about as much as the florida polling is showing Biden up.

[Gass3268]

Steve Schale seems more excited than he was last week, but is still urging caution.

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1318209943540015104?s=20

[forza nocta]

I don't know if this was expected/known or not, but St. Pete's last FL poll (that had Biden up) had Repubs outnumbering Dems in who was planning to vote early, 22R, 19D, 18I. So I guess it shouldn't be a surprise to see them leading.

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_October12_H5NX8.pdf