2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

So Florida Dems are winning both the mail & early vote #s. Reps better hope there is record election day turnout then...

Right, and what happens if on Election Day there's a shortage of poll workers in some precincts and the wait time is 5 hours and some of the "soft Republicans" who eventually come home to Trump decide they don't want to wait in line 5 hours?  This is why I don't get the Republican "strategy" of waiting to get votes on Election Day when you can easily bank them now.  It's just ridiculous and it seems the GOP apparatus is just too afraid to call out Trump for being an idiot for discouraging absentee voting.

[KaiserDave]

So, state by state, what is the situation?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318214204478967809

Not including Miami Dade seems pretty huge.  Especially because they got their mail ballots late.  So I'd assume there's a hefty volume of Democratic votes to come in from there. 

[Non Swing Voter]

So, state by state, what is the situation?

Not a ton of updates today.  Florida updates on twitter. 

Michigan and Wisconsin updates here: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Pennsylvania is still very far behind on reporting.  Still almost NOTHING in from Philly suburbs!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Remember, early voting opened today in much of Florida, but many smaller, more rural counties don't open up for a few more days. Just something to keep in mind.

[n1240]

It's just a few hours into the first day of in-person early voting in Florida, but anyone know why the Dem vote in Duval so strong thus far? Most other large counties appear not to vary too much based on how you'd expect the counties to vote overall.

source

[Non Swing Voter]

at this rate, FL is going to have the most votes processed today (by far) since it started voting.

[GP270watch]

It's just a few hours into the first day of in-person early voting in Florida, but anyone know why the Dem vote in Duval so strong thus far? Most other large counties appear not to vary too much based on how you'd expect the counties to vote overall.

source

 Duval has a large African-American population(31%). I would watch for counties that have large African-American population on this first day of voting and the weekend. That's when we tend to have huge numbers in early voting as Democrats.

[mijan]

Iowa early vote stats updated.
Dems have approximately 129 k vote lead.
IA-1
Dems 78.1 k
Rep 36.1 k
Dems + 42.0 k

IA-2
Dems 77.5 k
Rep 35.4 k
Dems +42.1 k
IA-3
Dems 74.8 k
Rep 36.4 k
Dems +38.4 k

IA-4
Dems 49.2 k
Rep 42.4 k
Dems +6.8 k

Total
Dems 279.6 k
Rep 150.7 k
Dems +128.9 k

Fun fact: In 2016
267 k registered Dems voted early
More Dems already voted early in 2020 even though there is 2 weeks left for early voting.
There is a high possibility that 400 k registered Dems will vote early at the end of early voting.

Dems lead early voting now 55-29 %

[wbrocks67]

So, state by state, what is the situation?

Not a ton of updates today.  Florida updates on twitter. 

Michigan and Wisconsin updates here: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Pennsylvania is still very far behind on reporting.  Still almost NOTHING in from Philly suburbs!

Yeah, it's super odd that Chester is doing good reporting, but Bucks, Montgomery, and Delaware are reporting nothing still. Montco's website says they have already gotten atleast 63K ballots back.

[Inmate Trump]

Might be a dumb question, so please forgive me.

How are absentee ballots counted?  By hand or is it computerized counting somehow?

[Holmes]

Might be a dumb question, so please forgive me.

How are absentee ballots counted?  By hand or is it computerized counting somehow?

Depends on how the state counts its ballots. Usually fed through a machine (like a scantron).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
·
22m
Florida EV as of 11:10 AM

Dem 42,645
Rep 37,908

Total 94,670

49/67 counties reporting

?? Michigan doesn't have party registration.

Got it. Missed the "Florida" part after I saw the "UMich Voter" headline at the top.

yall should apologize to karen lol

[GeorgiaModerate]

Might be a dumb question, so please forgive me.

How are absentee ballots counted?  By hand or is it computerized counting somehow?

Depends on how the state counts its ballots. Usually fed through a machine (like a scantron).

This is the way it's done in Georgia.  There is an article in the AJC this morning describing the process, which starts today (a change from previous years, when they couldn't start until Election Day).

https://www.ajc.com/politics/absentee-ballots-can-begin-to-be-opened-but-not-counted-in-georgia/BRBLHVUJOFHB5OEHAMZV34HPDA/

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Cleavon_MD/status/1318179301594853377

[Inmate Trump]

Might be a dumb question, so please forgive me.

How are absentee ballots counted?  By hand or is it computerized counting somehow?

Depends on how the state counts its ballots. Usually fed through a machine (like a scantron).

This is the way it's done in Georgia.  There is an article in the AJC this morning describing the process, which starts today (a change from previous years, when they couldn't start until Election Day).

https://www.ajc.com/politics/absentee-ballots-can-begin-to-be-opened-but-not-counted-in-georgia/BRBLHVUJOFHB5OEHAMZV34HPDA/

Oh, good.  Hopefully that means we’ll have a good idea who wins the state on election night.

[Non Swing Voter]

BIG NEW CHUNK OF VOTES IN FROM PA:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

Democrats           662,189   
Republicans   160,938   

[mijan]

BIG NEW CHUNK OF VOTES IN FROM PA:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

Democrats           662,189   
Republicans   160,938   

Wow 500 k lead for Dems.

[wbrocks67]

BIG NEW CHUNK OF VOTES IN FROM PA:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

Democrats           662,189   
Republicans   160,938   

And just like that, Montco starts processing ballots! Only at 11% right now, but way up from the 1% they were at yesterday. Philadelphia also already at an eye-popping 49%.

Not only do Dems currently have a +500K lead right now in PA, but 37% of Dems have already returned their ballot, while only 23% of Reps have.

[Non Swing Voter]

BIG NEW CHUNK OF VOTES IN FROM PA:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

Democrats           662,189   
Republicans   160,938   

Wow 500 k lead for Dems.

Yeah, when I saw that lead size I assumed that all the Philly suburban counties reported but nope, still barely anything in from them (just a small batch from Montgomery).  

[Non Swing Voter]

BIG NEW CHUNK OF VOTES IN FROM PA:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

Democrats           662,189   
Republicans   160,938   

And just like that, Montco starts processing ballots! Only at 11% right now, but way up from the 1% they were at yesterday. Philadelphia also already at an eye-popping 49%.

Not only do Dems currently have a +500K lead right now in PA, but 37% of Dems have already returned their ballot, while only 23% of Reps have.

Yeah, the big thing that would concern me if I were the Trump campaign is the fact that Dems seem to be holding their own throughout the state which is going to make it hard for Trump to overcome the impending bloodbath in the Philly suburbs.  This election might teach Republicans that you can't lose big cities by massive margins AND lose heavily populated suburbs by big margins too.  The math doesn't generally work.

[xavier110]

Daily Arizona update...

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1318230224052518912

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1318239828119556096

[wbrocks67]

BIG NEW CHUNK OF VOTES IN FROM PA:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

Democrats           662,189   
Republicans   160,938   

And just like that, Montco starts processing ballots! Only at 11% right now, but way up from the 1% they were at yesterday. Philadelphia also already at an eye-popping 49%.

Not only do Dems currently have a +500K lead right now in PA, but 37% of Dems have already returned their ballot, while only 23% of Reps have.

Yeah, the big thing that would concern me if I were the Trump campaign is the fact that Dems seem to be holding their own throughout the state which is going to make it hard for Trump to overcome the impending bloodbath in the Philly suburbs.  This election might teach Republicans that you can't lose big cities by massive margins AND lose heavily populated suburbs by big margins too.  The math doesn't generally work.

Yeah, the fact that Dems have a 500K+ lead right now with most of the Philly suburbs out should be pretty concerning for them. Not to mention, Reps return rate is absolutely sluggish.

[jeron]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1318239828119556096

Turnout is lower than last week, which was bound to happen of course because it was insane. It will probably be around 70,000 today.