2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Minnesota Mike]

Yeah, Travis always has high turnout. In 2016, the county had a turnout of 90%. The fact that they’re keeping up with 2016 early voting is a good sign that they’ll hit they number again.

In 2016 Travis had a turnout of 63.8%

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/travis.shtml

You’re right, the 90% is the amount of people registered to vote. Big difference!

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2016/oct/14/bruce-elfant/bruce-elfant-says-90-plus-percent-eligible-travis-/

A remarkable stat, nonetheless!

In 2020 Travis is up to a remarkable 97% of eligible voters registered. About 850,000 total, 125,000 more than 2016.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/austin/news/2020/10/13/travis-county-achieves-record-breaking-97--voter-registration-

[n1240]

NC early in-person more favorable for GOP yesterday than two days ago, D+9 on ballots returned 10/16 vs D+20 on 10/15, white/black share at 67/23 compared to 59/31. Total vote is similar (322k vs 332k)

How does that compare to 2016?

I'll try and find partisan stats but about 160k ballots were cast total on each day of the first two days of early voting in NC in 2016, so early in-person vote rate is 2x as high thus far.

[ExSky]

the only turnout numbers that are crazy good are harris + denton everything else is on par with past years not sure why people are so "excited" lol let's wait & see

Denial

[republican1993]

the only turnout numbers that are crazy good are harris + denton everything else is on par with past years not sure why people are so "excited" lol let's wait & see

Denial

how? the %'s are on par with 2016 besides those two counties lol and it's not dems are voting 80-20 in these counties either, denton + collin are ruby red.

[Brittain33]

I wonder if the Collin and Denton higher turnout is because they have a disproportionately white-collar, educated workforce who are working from home and can thus get away for early voting during the day more easily during COVID than in past years. This would be neutral about party.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Voted this afternoon early in person, took about 40 minutes to get in.

This is Wayne County, NC. They had curbside voting, looked to be doing three at a time and there was a steady 15 or 20 people in line, the whole time I was there.

Never seen it this busy for early in person voting.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1317574454218805250?s=20
55,600 + the total from yesterday = 567,996.

total from yesterday source: https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getElectionEVDates.do

[n1240]

NC early in-person more favorable for GOP yesterday than two days ago, D+9 on ballots returned 10/16 vs D+20 on 10/15, white/black share at 67/23 compared to 59/31. Total vote is similar (322k vs 332k)

How does that compare to 2016?

I'll try and find partisan stats but about 160k ballots were cast total on each day of the first two days of early voting in NC in 2016, so early in-person vote rate is 2x as high thus far.

First day of in-person early vote 2016 (10/20)
Dem 86715 (52.4%)
Rep 40631 (24.6%)
Una 37983 (23.0%)

Second day of in-person early vote 2016 (10/21)
Dem 75060 (48.4%)
Rep 42178 (27.2%)
Una 37745 (24.4%)

Third day of in-person early vote 2016 (10/22, first Saturday)
Dem 109854 (49.1%)
Rep 58464 (26.1%)
Una 55468 (24.8%)

After considering mail-in votes (which were 32/40/29 D/R/I in 2016) the overall composition of absentee voters (mail + in-person) in NC two days into the early in-person voting period is roughly the same as what it is now, but the number of votes cast is still vastly different (1.25 mil after yesterday vs 387k in 2016)

[prag_prog]

Today's EV count at Harris will be around 70,000

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Today's EV count at Harris will be around 70,000

If true, Harris would jump from 39% to 48% of 2016's turnout

On Day 5 in 2016, Harris finished at 38% of 2012's turnout

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1317570605961646081

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

the only turnout numbers that are crazy good are harris + denton everything else is on par with past years not sure why people are so "excited" lol let's wait & see

Denial

how? the %'s are on par with 2016 besides those two counties lol and it's not dems are voting 80-20 in these counties either, denton + collin are ruby red.

I know your username says 1993, but that doesn't mean the rest of us are in 1993 anymore.

[TheLaRocca]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1317570605961646081

Yeah, Georgia being as Dem or more than Michigan would not surprise me. Abrams almost won and the state has only gotten more Democrat since then AND it's a more favorable environment for Democrats than 2018. And Biden > Abrams with GA Whites.

[Storr]

the only turnout numbers that are crazy good are harris + denton everything else is on par with past years not sure why people are so "excited" lol let's wait & see

Denial

how? the %'s are on par with 2016 besides those two counties lol and it's not dems are voting 80-20 in these counties either, denton + collin are ruby red.

I know your username says 1993, but that doesn't mean the rest of us are in 1993 anymore.

To be fair Denton and Collin were Ruby red in like 2012 (64.9% Romney for both).

Edit: I realize this is more of a bagel meme than anything. But, it's simply astounding how much the two counties, both with 800k+ populations, have shifted in such a short time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

the only turnout numbers that are crazy good are harris + denton everything else is on par with past years not sure why people are so "excited" lol let's wait & see

Denial

how? the %'s are on par with 2016 besides those two counties lol and it's not dems are voting 80-20 in these counties either, denton + collin are ruby red.

I know your username says 1993, but that doesn't mean the rest of us are in 1993 anymore.

To be fair Denton and Collin were Ruby red in like 2012 (64.9% Romney for both).

Edit: I realize this is more of a bagel meme than anything, but it's simply astounding how much the two counties have shifted in such a short time.

As a Collin County resident I look forward to the R presidential margin in my county being reduced to a Trump single digit win, with more Dem gains to follow down the line.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

the only turnout numbers that are crazy good are harris + denton everything else is on par with past years not sure why people are so "excited" lol let's wait & see

Denial

how? the %'s are on par with 2016 besides those two counties lol and it's not dems are voting 80-20 in these counties either, denton + collin are ruby red.

I know your username says 1993, but that doesn't mean the rest of us are in 1993 anymore.

To be fair Denton and Collin were Ruby red in like 2012 (64.9% Romney for both).

Edit: I realize this is more of a bagel meme than anything. But, it's simply astounding how much the two counties, both with 800k+ populations, have shifted in such a short time.

collin is now easily over 1 mil

[Holmes]

Raltson says about 18k voters in Clark as of an hour ago (in person only, not including mail ballots received today) compared to 39k for the first day in 2016 for Clark. But it’s basically impossible to compare 2016 with 2020 because all voters in Nevada were mailed a ballot and many have already sent them.

[Storr]

the only turnout numbers that are crazy good are harris + denton everything else is on par with past years not sure why people are so "excited" lol let's wait & see

Denial

how? the %'s are on par with 2016 besides those two counties lol and it's not dems are voting 80-20 in these counties either, denton + collin are ruby red.

I know your username says 1993, but that doesn't mean the rest of us are in 1993 anymore.

To be fair Denton and Collin were Ruby red in like 2012 (64.9% Romney for both).

Edit: I realize this is more of a bagel meme than anything. But, it's simply astounding how much the two counties, both with 800k+ populations, have shifted in such a short time.

collin is now easily over 1 mil

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: As of 5 PM, 87,459 votes were cast on Saturday (the final number will be a bit higher).

This includes 59,942 in-person votes and 27,517 mail ballots. Not bad at all given less than half the state's population had early in-person voting today.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 777,391 in-person & 653,795 by mail, for a grand total of 1,431,186.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Broward is at 27% of 2016 turnout
PBC is at 34% of 2016 turnout
MDC is at 21% of 2016 turnout
Pinellas is at 32% of 2016 turnout
Hillsborough is at 30% of 2016 turnout
Orange is at 22% of 2016 turnout

And this is before any in-person early votes are cast

[Antonio the Sixth]

NC early in-person more favorable for GOP yesterday than two days ago, D+9 on ballots returned 10/16 vs D+20 on 10/15, white/black share at 67/23 compared to 59/31. Total vote is similar (322k vs 332k)

How does that compare to 2016?

I'll try and find partisan stats but about 160k ballots were cast total on each day of the first two days of early voting in NC in 2016, so early in-person vote rate is 2x as high thus far.

First day of in-person early vote 2016 (10/20)
Dem 86715 (52.4%)
Rep 40631 (24.6%)
Una 37983 (23.0%)

Second day of in-person early vote 2016 (10/21)
Dem 75060 (48.4%)
Rep 42178 (27.2%)
Una 37745 (24.4%)

Third day of in-person early vote 2016 (10/22, first Saturday)
Dem 109854 (49.1%)
Rep 58464 (26.1%)
Una 55468 (24.8%)

After considering mail-in votes (which were 32/40/29 D/R/I in 2016) the overall composition of absentee voters (mail + in-person) in NC two days into the early in-person voting period is roughly the same as what it is now, but the number of votes cast is still vastly different (1.25 mil after yesterday vs 387k in 2016)

Hmm. So there's been a switch where early in-person is normally overwhelmingly Democrat, but this year it's only moderately so, while mail voting was normally R-leaning but this year is overwhelmingly Democrat (and there's a lot more of it, of course). I guess that makes sense given the discourse around VBM.

[It’s so Joever]

This is bad for Biden.
High turnout in these even slightly red counties does not help.

[It’s so Joever]

Voted this afternoon early in person, took about 40 minutes to get in.

This is Wayne County, NC. They had curbside voting, looked to be doing three at a time and there was a steady 15 or 20 people in line, the whole time I was there.

Never seen it this busy for early in person voting.

Is Wayne a reddish county?

[ON Progressive]

This is bad for Biden.
High turnout in these even slightly red counties does not help.

Except:

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Voted this afternoon early in person, took about 40 minutes to get in.

This is Wayne County, NC. They had curbside voting, looked to be doing three at a time and there was a steady 15 or 20 people in line, the whole time I was there.

Never seen it this busy for early in person voting.

Is Wayne a reddish county?

it's quite Republican. It even went for Dole in 2008 in her losing re-election bid.