2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[kireev]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1317448995569094656

This makes me optimistic about Florida...

I did no realize there was such a significant turnout difference between democrats and republicans in FL 2016...  Do we have the numbers for 2018?

Not sure but I think the common wisdom in Florida is that republicans can only win if democratic turnout is lower than theirs.  Biden seems likely to win Florida independents so that’s probably especially true this year.

I found this:  Tampa Bay largely mirrored the rest of Florida. Republicans’ turnout rate was about 68 percent, compared to 60 percent for Democrats. https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/12/21/florida-republicans-turnout-beat-democrats-except-among-young-voters/

I could not find data for FL, but from the article it's pretty clear that even in 2018 republicans had a several points higher turnout than democrats.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1317448995569094656

This makes me optimistic about Florida...

I did no realize there was such a significant turnout difference between democrats and republicans in FL 2016...  Do we have the numbers for 2018?

Not sure but I think the common wisdom in Florida is that republicans can only win if democratic turnout is lower than theirs.  Biden seems likely to win Florida independents so that’s probably especially true this year.

I found this:  Tampa Bay largely mirrored the rest of Florida. Republicans’ turnout rate was about 68 percent, compared to 60 percent for Democrats. https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/12/21/florida-republicans-turnout-beat-democrats-except-among-young-voters/

I could not find data for FL, but from the article it's pretty clear that even in 2018 republicans had a several points higher turnout than the democrats.

Right that’s why I don’t buy that this huge Democratic early turnout doesn’t matter.  Democrats are by and large lower propensity voters banking big votes is a very good thing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1317448995569094656

This makes me optimistic about Florida...

I did no realize there was such a significant turnout difference between democrats and republicans in FL 2016...  Do we have the numbers for 2018?

Not sure but I think the common wisdom in Florida is that republicans can only win if democratic turnout is lower than theirs.  Biden seems likely to win Florida independents so that’s probably especially true this year.

I found this:  Tampa Bay largely mirrored the rest of Florida. Republicans’ turnout rate was about 68 percent, compared to 60 percent for Democrats. https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/12/21/florida-republicans-turnout-beat-democrats-except-among-young-voters/

I could not find data for FL, but from the article it's pretty clear that even in 2018 republicans had a several points higher turnout than the democrats.

That's pretty much always the case in Southern States during off years. If GA had full turnout in 2018, Abraham's prolly would've won, but instead we only saw a 4% shift from 2016

[kireev]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1317448995569094656

This makes me optimistic about Florida...

I did no realize there was such a significant turnout difference between democrats and republicans in FL 2016...  Do we have the numbers for 2018?

Not sure but I think the common wisdom in Florida is that republicans can only win if democratic turnout is lower than theirs.  Biden seems likely to win Florida independents so that’s probably especially true this year.

I found this:  Tampa Bay largely mirrored the rest of Florida. Republicans’ turnout rate was about 68 percent, compared to 60 percent for Democrats. https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/12/21/florida-republicans-turnout-beat-democrats-except-among-young-voters/

I could not find data for FL, but from the article it's pretty clear that even in 2018 republicans had a several points higher turnout than the democrats.

Right that’s why I don’t buy that this huge Democratic early turnout doesn’t matter.  Democrats are by and large lower propensity voters banking big votes is a very good thing.

I would also say it does matter. It does not guarantee Biden's victory, but it's a sign of high democratic enthusiasm.

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin: Mails in ballots requested: R +2
                Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +2

Is this data collected by looking at whether someone previously voted in the Democratic or GOP primaries? We don’t have party registration so I’m wondering as to what they’re getting this from.

That's what they claim: voting history, demographics and consumer interest. But this completely conflicts with polls showing that those that voted already are overwhelmingly democratic. I think 25% of Democrats in WI that were polled already voted early; only 5% of Republicans according to Siena/NYT poll.

Either polls will be historically atrocious or TargetSmart is up to something.

Well given TargetSmart's history they're up to smth alright, being massively off as per normal for them lol

I don't know their history so you fill me in. In WI's case, Democrats are actually doing worse (42-33) at this point than in 2016 (51-35). It defies logic.

Not sure where Umengus is getting the R+2 number from. Their current numbers have it D+9. That said we really shouldn't be arguing TargetSmart's modeled partisanship. It's really a crapshoot.

[n1240]

Sample in NYTimes/Siena WI/MI polls are fairly small but they clearly paint a different picture than whatever TargetSmart thinks of the early vote electorate in those states. In both states the voters who have already voted are disproportionally white and old, which TargetSmart seems to be expecting to be a GOP favorable demographic, but the voters are still disproportionally Dem in the NYTimes/Siena data. In Michigan, the poll suggests 54% of people who have already voted are 65+ and 85% are white (25% and 77% overall respectively), while the party ID split among early voters is 53/18/29 D/R/I (32/33/29 overall). In Wisconsin it is 47% 65+ and 93% white (31% and 87% overall respectively) and party ID split is 56/11/33 (29/29/35) overall.

[Rep Jessica]

Vishal Patel, M.D.
@VPatelMD
 · 57m
Update:

After only 4 days of voting, 3.4. MILLION ballots in Texas have been cast.

That's 37.9% of the total (8.9 million) ballots cast in 2016 with 15 early voting days and 1 general election day to go.

#TexasEarlyVoting #TexasTurnsBlue twitter.com/VPatelMD/statu…

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1317497769964244992

Early vote rate seems slower in Harris County today compared to weekdays over past week (usually had around 34k-35k at noon report, but this tweet says 11 am so maybe this is slightly outdated?) but still fairly strong.

[Lief 🗽]

Pure speculation here, but I wonder if we're seeing a sort of psychological phenomenon in Texas and Georgia where suddenly low-propensity voters who thought their vote wouldn't matter in either state are going to turn out in huge numbers because things look much closer this election. I'm not sure how you'd go about proving that, admittedly.

I can't speak much to TX other than its population is booming, but GA's automatic voter registration system began in January 2017 and has now had nearly 4 years to propagate.

It's technically quasi-AVR since it is done via the DMV: poorer people (who are of course low-propensity) are more likely to renew their licenses every 5 years as opposed to 8 due to cost. That of course means the vast majority of these individuals are now registered to vote when they might have not been otherwise. Georgia active registered voters are now 95% of VEP (including inactive RVs, 102%). Even in 2018, the effect of AVR would have only been half as strong as it is now.

How did they manage to trick the GOP-controlled state government into implementing AVR??

[Horus]

Pure speculation here, but I wonder if we're seeing a sort of psychological phenomenon in Texas and Georgia where suddenly low-propensity voters who thought their vote wouldn't matter in either state are going to turn out in huge numbers because things look much closer this election. I'm not sure how you'd go about proving that, admittedly.

I can't speak much to TX other than its population is booming, but GA's automatic voter registration system began in January 2017 and has now had nearly 4 years to propagate.

It's technically quasi-AVR since it is done via the DMV: poorer people (who are of course low-propensity) are more likely to renew their licenses every 5 years as opposed to 8 due to cost. That of course means the vast majority of these individuals are now registered to vote when they might have not been otherwise. Georgia active registered voters are now 95% of VEP (including inactive RVs, 102%). Even in 2018, the effect of AVR would have only been half as strong as it is now.

How did they manage to trick the GOP-controlled state government into implementing AVR??

They're going to rig the election here so might as well implement AVR and look good to the public eye. Kemp would never have allowed that otherwise.

[Tender Branson]

Vishal Patel, M.D.
@VPatelMD
 · 57m
Update:

After only 4 days of voting, 3.4. MILLION ballots in Texas have been cast.

That's 37.9% of the total (8.9 million) ballots cast in 2016 with 15 early voting days and 1 general election day to go.

#TexasEarlyVoting #TexasTurnsBlue twitter.com/VPatelMD/statu…

TX could be a big driver of US turnout this year.

The state always had sh*tty turnout at around 50%, but this year it will probably be close to the US average because both sides consider it a swing state.

11-13 million votes maybe, instead of 9.

[Hindsight was 2020]

While we shouldn’t assume anything from EV I feel like there is a failure to appreciate the risk in the Trump campaign’s banking industry ED turnout in the year of a pandemic

[kireev]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1317497769964244992

Early vote rate seems slower in Harris County today compared to weekdays over past week (usually had around 34k-35k at noon report, but this tweet says 11 am so maybe this is slightly outdated?) but still fairly strong.

Come on it's Saturday. People get up and do things later on Saturdays compared to weekdays.

[forza nocta]

Lol why is Texas randomly dominating in turnout? Nearly 40% in 4 days??? Insane.

[It’s so Joever]

Vishal Patel, M.D.
@VPatelMD
 · 57m
Update:

After only 4 days of voting, 3.4. MILLION ballots in Texas have been cast.

That's 37.9% of the total (8.9 million) ballots cast in 2016 with 15 early voting days and 1 general election day to go.

#TexasEarlyVoting #TexasTurnsBlue twitter.com/VPatelMD/statu…

TX could be a big driver of US turnout this year.

The state always had sh*tty turnout at around 50%, but this year it will probably be close to the US average because both sides consider it a swing state.

11-13 million votes maybe, instead of 9.

I gotta say, while I am extremely doubtful of Blue-Xas, the political landscape is really changing in the area and a lot of voters are probably going to turn out now that it’s a “swing state”.

[Tender Branson]

Vishal Patel, M.D.
@VPatelMD
 · 57m
Update:

After only 4 days of voting, 3.4. MILLION ballots in Texas have been cast.

That's 37.9% of the total (8.9 million) ballots cast in 2016 with 15 early voting days and 1 general election day to go.

#TexasEarlyVoting #TexasTurnsBlue twitter.com/VPatelMD/statu…

TX could be a big driver of US turnout this year.

The state always had sh*tty turnout at around 50%, but this year it will probably be close to the US average because both sides consider it a swing state.

11-13 million votes maybe, instead of 9.

I gotta say, while I am extremely doubtful of Blue-Xas, the political landscape is really changing in the area and a lot of voters are probably going to turn out now that it’s a “swing state”.

It’s probably a one-time-event this year because of Trump.

Once the Republicans nominate a normal conservative again in 2024 or 2028, the polling will be back to R+10 and lower turnouts.

[It’s so Joever]

Vishal Patel, M.D.
@VPatelMD
 · 57m
Update:

After only 4 days of voting, 3.4. MILLION ballots in Texas have been cast.

That's 37.9% of the total (8.9 million) ballots cast in 2016 with 15 early voting days and 1 general election day to go.

#TexasEarlyVoting #TexasTurnsBlue twitter.com/VPatelMD/statu…

TX could be a big driver of US turnout this year.

The state always had sh*tty turnout at around 50%, but this year it will probably be close to the US average because both sides consider it a swing state.

11-13 million votes maybe, instead of 9.

I gotta say, while I am extremely doubtful of Blue-Xas, the political landscape is really changing in the area and a lot of voters are probably going to turn out now that it’s a “swing state”.

It’s probably a one-time-event this year because of Trump.

Once the Republicans nominate a normal conservative again in 2024 or 2028, the polling will be back to R+10 and lower turnouts.

I’m not so sure about that.
You seem to believe that people change parties based on policy preferences, but I actually wager it is somewhat the other way around.
Many of these Never-Trumpers will become Democrats in the long run. They have already begun the process of falling into a different “tribe” and of changing their media sources. Some will go back, but many others will become strangely liberal (despite it going against their interests)
Politics is more of a culture war than anything.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Lol why is Texas randomly dominating in turnout? Nearly 40% in 4 days??? Insane.

Everything's bigger in Texas, duh.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1317497769964244992

Early vote rate seems slower in Harris County today compared to weekdays over past week (usually had around 34k-35k at noon report, but this tweet says 11 am so maybe this is slightly outdated?) but still fairly strong.

Come on it's Saturday. People get up and do things later on Saturdays compared to weekdays.

I'm clearly not painting is as a bad thing but as I previously stated early vote on weekends have been historically weaker in Texas compared to weekdays and expectations that the weekend vote would be better than what occurred during the week seemed bullish to me.

[forza nocta]

Lol why is Texas randomly dominating in turnout? Nearly 40% in 4 days??? Insane.

I saw someone point out on Twitter about the turnout, and they’re right, that Texas was bottom 5 in turnout in 2016 and they just barely hit 50%. So their “turnout from 2016 %” is a little inflated since it was so low in 2016 to begin with,  which makes more sense. Regardless though, turnout is still high as of right now and is gaining fast.

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin released municipal data. Taking requests if anyone wants me to dig into it a bit. I'll have some of my own things I'm looking at.

[libertpaulian]

Why is turnout so low today?  People don't have to work, so you think they'd have more time to go vote.

[Canis]

Why is turnout so low today?  People don't have to work, so you think they'd have more time to go vote.

uh that aint true lol I work Today for both of my jobs

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why is turnout so low today?  People don't have to work, so you think they'd have more time to go vote.

As has been suggested by others, people tend to sleep later on Saturdays so they probably don't get out as early.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It’s probably a one-time-event this year because of Trump.

Once the Republicans nominate a normal conservative again in 2024 or 2028, the polling will be back to R+10 and lower turnouts.

Yeah, I'm sure Republican voters are just itching to nominate someone like Kasich or Baker in 2024.