2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Day 3 of early voting in Texas (October 15) (In-person + VBM)


HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   197,987      9.9%
2016:   287,134     12.9%
2018:   245,951     10.5%
2020:   398,966     16.1%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   118,698     10.1%
2016:   185,761     14.4%
2018:   179,875     13.5%
2020:   213,606     15.3%

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)
2012:   118,027     12.1%
2016:   154,192     14.3%
2018:   142,494     12.7%
2020:   174,568     14.4%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   106,548     11.6%
2016:   137,669     13.2%
2018:   118,709     10.8%
2020:   165,479     13.9%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:     56,220       8.9%
2016:   121,897     16.8%
2018:   115,123     14.8%
2020:   140,588     16.4%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     56,646     12.3%
2016:     96,899     18.1%
2018:     97,324     16.8%
2020:   122,038     18.8%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     43,336     11.2%
2016:     63,166     13.6%
2018:     64,273     12.9%
2020:   117,894     20.9%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:     28,003      7.3%
2016:     51,317    12.0%
2018:     54,015    11.9%
2020:     70,577    14.5%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     34,783    11.4%
2016:     53,752    15.9%
2018:     44,982    12.4%
2020:     58,986    15.1%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:     30,465    12.0%
2016:     57,576    19.2%
2018:     60,676    18.3%
2020:     80,335    21.3%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     35,607    13.4%
2016:     45,941    14.7%
2018:     44,556    13.4%
2020:     47,899    12.9%

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     26,404    14.2%
2016:     35,782    17.2%
2018:     34,153    16.1%
2020:     53,036    23.3%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     13,429      7.4%
2016:     21,831    11.0%
2018:     21,563    10.4%
2020:     32,696    14.9%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     17,554      9.1%
2016:     23,766    11.9%
2018:     26,381    12.9%
2020:     36,579    17.3%

[Ferguson97]

Day 3 of early voting in Texas (October 15) (In-person + VBM)
HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   197,987      9.9%
2016:   287,134     12.9%
2018:   245,951     10.5%
2020:   398,966     16.1%

Anything on the partisan breakdown?

What margin does Biden have to win Harris County by that he'd likely win the state?

Anything over 300k and I think he’s sitting pretty.

Because if this is accurate, Biden is in a very good position in Texas.

[Non Swing Voter]

North Carolina surpasses 1 million votes cast

https://twitter.com/OldNorthStPol/status/1317182635727331328

Do we have the partisan breakdown?

At 900k it was: 49D, 21R, 29I

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html

[Gass3268]

Day 3 of early voting in Texas (October 15) (In-person + VBM)


HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   197,987      9.9%
2016:   287,134     12.9%
2018:   245,951     10.5%
2020:   398,966     16.1%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   118,698     10.1%
2016:   185,761     14.4%
2018:   179,875     13.5%
2020:   213,606     15.3%

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)
2012:   118,027     12.1%
2016:   154,192     14.3%
2018:   142,494     12.7%
2020:   174,568     14.4%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   106,548     11.6%
2016:   137,669     13.2%
2018:   118,709     10.8%
2020:   165,479     13.9%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:    56,220      8.9%
2016:   121,897     16.8%
2018:   115,123     14.8%
2020:   140,588     16.4%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    56,646     12.3%
2016:    96,899     18.1%
2018:    97,324     16.8%
2020:   122,038     18.8%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    43,336     11.2%
2016:    63,166     13.6%
2018:    64,273     12.9%
2020:   117,894     20.9%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:    28,003      7.3%
2016:    51,317     12.0%
2018:    54,015     11.9%
2020:    70,577     14.5%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    34,783     11.4%
2016:    53,752     15.9%
2018:    44,982     12.4%
2020:    58,986     15.1%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:    30,465     12.0%
2016:    57,576     19.2%
2018:    60,676     18.3%
2020:    80,335     21.3%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    35,607     13.4%
2016:    45,941     14.7%
2018:    44,556     13.4%
2020:    47,899     12.9%

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    26,404     14.2%
2016:    35,782     17.2%
2018:    34,153     16.1%
2020:    53,036     23.3%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    13,429      7.4%
2016:    21,831     11.0%
2018:    21,563     10.4%
2020:    32,696     14.9%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:    17,554      9.1%
2016:    23,766     11.9%
2018:    26,381     12.9%
2020:    36,579     17.3%

Do we you have Fort Bend County?

[The Mikado]

Day 3 of early voting in Texas (October 15) (In-person + VBM)
HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   197,987      9.9%
2016:   287,134     12.9%
2018:   245,951     10.5%
2020:   398,966     16.1%

Anything on the partisan breakdown?

TX doesn't have partisan registration.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Do we you have Fort Bend County?

The main reason I haven't gotten Fort Bend County before is that it's pretty annoying to get the early vote numbers from the county site (my preferred method). The Texas Elections site seems to have fairly inconsistent reporting (They didn't have Harris & Williamson's in-person numbers until today). Here are the numbers based on the state reports. Apparently I wasn't looking close enough at the PDF! Here are the county reported numbers:


FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    46,422     13.7%
2016:    59,763     14.8%
2018:    62,886     14.6%
2020:    65,159     13.5%


Also, Fort Bend County seemed to have had some machine problems this week which may or may not have affected turnout.

https://abc13.com/early-voting-in-fort-bend-county-problems-at-the-polls-where-to-vote-polling-locations/7057448/

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1317187020289155073

[Rep Jessica]

Old North State Politics
@OldNorthStPol
 · 55m
Just released from @NCSBE:

More than 1M NC voters have cast ballots, as of 1:30 PM Friday

570,019 ballots by mail and 468,020 ballots in-person, amounting to 14% of NC's 7.2M registered voters

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Day 3 of early voting in Texas (October 15) (In-person + VBM)


HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   197,987      9.9%
2016:   287,134     12.9%
2018:   245,951     10.5%
2020:   398,966     16.1%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   118,698     10.1%
2016:   185,761     14.4%
2018:   179,875     13.5%
2020:   213,606     15.3%

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)
2012:   118,027     12.1%
2016:   154,192     14.3%
2018:   142,494     12.7%
2020:   174,568     14.4%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   106,548     11.6%
2016:   137,669     13.2%
2018:   118,709     10.8%
2020:   165,479     13.9%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:    56,220      8.9%
2016:   121,897     16.8%
2018:   115,123     14.8%
2020:   140,588     16.4%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    56,646     12.3%
2016:    96,899     18.1%
2018:    97,324     16.8%
2020:   122,038     18.8%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    43,336     11.2%
2016:    63,166     13.6%
2018:    64,273     12.9%
2020:   117,894     20.9%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:    28,003      7.3%
2016:    51,317     12.0%
2018:    54,015     11.9%
2020:    70,577     14.5%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    34,783     11.4%
2016:    53,752     15.9%
2018:    44,982     12.4%
2020:    58,986     15.1%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:    30,465     12.0%
2016:    57,576     19.2%
2018:    60,676     18.3%
2020:    80,335     21.3%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    35,607     13.4%
2016:    45,941     14.7%
2018:    44,556     13.4%
2020:    47,899     12.9%

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    26,404     14.2%
2016:    35,782     17.2%
2018:    34,153     16.1%
2020:    53,036     23.3%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    13,429      7.4%
2016:    21,831     11.0%
2018:    21,563     10.4%
2020:    32,696     14.9%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:    17,554      9.1%
2016:    23,766     11.9%
2018:    26,381     12.9%
2020:    36,579     17.3%

Very promising numbers all around. The number that I’m curious about is Galveston and what’s causing the marked surge in voting there compared to Montgomery County, a heavily Republican County where the vote is flat.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

(Harris County tweet)

Wow! That's almost 1/3 of Harris' 2016 vote total

[Non Swing Voter]

Beto is going to be governor of Texas at some point isn't he?

[Brittain33]

Almost all of those counties are at 1/3 of 2016 turnout including the border counties and the wealthy suburbs. Of course many have grown hugely since then. Montgomery is the outlier. Galveston is an outlier in the other direction as another GOP county, though, so we can’t conclude anything.

[soundchaser]

Early voting starts today in Louisiana. Not much really contested here (at least in my parish), but I’ll see if the Secretary of State posts any numbers. It took me about an hour and a half just now — earlier reports of lines up two two and a half hours at my location.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Beto is going to be governor of Texas at some point isn't he?

Either him or Lina Hidalgo

[Rep Jessica]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
28m
Massachusetts and Vermont #earlyvote updates posted.

Vermont becomes the first state where 2020 #earlyvote is >40% of their 2016 *total* turnout
👀
👀


Nationally, at least 22.6 million people have voted in the 2020 general election https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

+1 for Biden that wasn’t there for Beto or Clinton bitches

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Day 3 of early voting in Texas (October 15) (In-person + VBM)


HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   197,987      9.9%
2016:   287,134     12.9%
2018:   245,951     10.5%
2020:   398,966     16.1%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   118,698     10.1%
2016:   185,761     14.4%
2018:   179,875     13.5%
2020:   213,606     15.3%

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)
2012:   118,027     12.1%
2016:   154,192     14.3%
2018:   142,494     12.7%
2020:   174,568     14.4%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   106,548     11.6%
2016:   137,669     13.2%
2018:   118,709     10.8%
2020:   165,479     13.9%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:    56,220      8.9%
2016:   121,897     16.8%
2018:   115,123     14.8%
2020:   140,588     16.4%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    56,646     12.3%
2016:    96,899     18.1%
2018:    97,324     16.8%
2020:   122,038     18.8%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    43,336     11.2%
2016:    63,166     13.6%
2018:    64,273     12.9%
2020:   117,894     20.9%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:    28,003      7.3%
2016:    51,317     12.0%
2018:    54,015     11.9%
2020:    70,577     14.5%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    34,783     11.4%
2016:    53,752     15.9%
2018:    44,982     12.4%
2020:    58,986     15.1%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:    30,465     12.0%
2016:    57,576     19.2%
2018:    60,676     18.3%
2020:    80,335     21.3%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    35,607     13.4%
2016:    45,941     14.7%
2018:    44,556     13.4%
2020:    47,899     12.9%

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    26,404     14.2%
2016:    35,782     17.2%
2018:    34,153     16.1%
2020:    53,036     23.3%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    13,429      7.4%
2016:    21,831     11.0%
2018:    21,563     10.4%
2020:    32,696     14.9%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:    17,554      9.1%
2016:    23,766     11.9%
2018:    26,381     12.9%
2020:    36,579     17.3%

Very promising numbers all around. The number that I’m curious about is Galveston and what’s causing the marked surge in voting there compared to Montgomery County, a heavily Republican County where the vote is flat.

Could be that a lot of Republican voters are holding out to Election day to vote.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Could be that a lot of Republican voters are holding out to Election day to vote.

That's certainly what the polls look like, in terms of who's voting early and on November 3. But I'm wondering how reliable they'll end up being. As I said earlier today:

At this rate, Republicans are really going to have to count on a robust Election Day turnout. Or this is just more proof that more Democrats are motivated to vote right now.

Republicans better hope their voters have a lot of patience because I'm sensing the lines on November 3 are gonna be enormous.

Wouldn't doubt a decent amount of their voters sit the election out due to not wanting to wait in line and/or disenchantment over Trump's dim chances (As if it couldn't get more 1980).

Granted, California Democrats also have a tendency to wait until election day to cast their ballots. But a lot of those votes are mail-in votes that are postmarked on election day. Texas doesn't have nearly as big of a vote-by-mail electorate as California

[Adam Griffin]

Top 10 States, Highest Turnout as % of 2016 Total Vote:

Code:

VT	42.7
NJ	32.7
MN	30.7
VA	29.7
TX	29.3
IA	28.8
MI	28.7
GA	27.0
WI	26.4
NE	25.2

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1317210504620875781

[Non Swing Voter]

All of the images on tv and voting statistics seem to suggest that minority voters are much more engaged than 2016.  Who would have thought that 4 years of racist vitriol being spewed out of the President's mouth would inspire higher minority turnout.

[GP270watch]

All of the images on tv and voting statistics seem to suggest that minority voters are much more engaged than 2016.  Who would have thought that 4 years of racist vitriol being spewed out of the President's mouth would inspire higher minority turnout.

 The Latino and Black communities have also suffered from the health and economic impacts of Covid disproportionately.

[Holmes]

Looking to be another 100k+ day in Harris County, and I don't see it slowing down with the weekend coming up.

[Non Swing Voter]

Maine numbers don't look good for Susan Collins, I'd say they're "concerning" maybe even "very concerning"

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/ME.html

[Xing]

Not sure if anyone has posted this, but Ralston has started talking about the NV ballots so far. This is a state where the early vote is a somewhat good indicator of how things will go.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1317221593525886976