Fox News AZ & NC: Kelly +17 | Cunningham +6

[Gass3268]

Kelly 56
McSally 39%

Cunningham 48
Tillis 42
Third Party 5

Source

[S019]

McSally will be Blanched


Likely D----->Safe D

[WD]

KING MARK

[soundchaser]

Jesus Christ, McSally. Hope you enjoyed your political career while it lasted.

[ON Progressive]

LMFAO McSally.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

It's been a while since we've had a good blanching in a big state.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

McSally’s gonna have to starve more families to close that gap.

I think the ratings nerds can begin to shift this to Likely D (although it’s probably Safe D in reality lol).

[Person Man]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KTt75BHtqV8

[MT Treasurer]

Didn’t expect McSally to lose by a larger margin than Gardner, but really seems like this race isn’t more competitive than CO (and maybe even slightly less competitive than CO), but obviously both seats are gone for Republicans.

This is the second poll to show Cunningham outperforming Biden by 2 points.

[OneJ]

  Stop, stop! She's already DEAD!!!!!

[Xing]

It isn't going to be that lopsided, but yeah, I don't see how McSally even comes close to coming back.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-among-likely-voters-in-key-states

August 29-September 1

AZ
772 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

Kelly 56%
McSally 39%
Other 1%
Would not vote 1%
Don't know 3%

Change among larger sample of 853 registered voters with a MoE of 3% (previous RV poll May 30-June 2):

Kelly 55% (+5%)
McSally 38% (+1%)
Other 1% (-2%)
Would not vote 1% (-1%)
Don't know 4% (-4%)

NC
722 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

Cunningham 48%
Tillis 42%
Brayes (L) 3%
Hayes (C) 1%
Other 1%
Would not vote 1%
Don't know 5%

Change among larger sample of 804 registered voters with a MoE of 3.5% (previous RV poll June 20-23):

Cunningham 47% (+8%)
Tillis 40% (+3%)
Brayes (L) 3% (n/c)
Hayes (C) 2% (-1%)
Other 1% (n/c)
Would not vote 1% (n/c)
Don't know 6% (-9%)

[wbrocks67]

Wow. No surprise why both of them want a national CNN debate.

[Suburbia]

McSally is finished. Likely D.

[Roronoa D. Law]

If the rumors that Ducey picked a weak incumbent in the form of McSally in hope that she loses and he runs in 2022 is true it was an incredibly bad move. He knows faces the likelihood that Kelly maybe too entrenched to beat even in a Biden midterm. That's not even considering the COVID-19 disaster.

[Roll Roons]

If the rumors that Ducey picked a weak incumbent in the form of McSally in hope that she loses and he runs in 2022 is true it was an incredibly bad move. He knows faces the likelihood that Kelly maybe too entrenched to beat even in a Biden midterm. That's not even considering the COVID-19 disaster.

If that was his logic in December 2018, it was sound at the time. He'd recently seen Maggie Hassan and Rick Scott beat incumbent swing state Senators even in otherwise unfavorable environments for their respective parties. Considering that Ducey had just been reelected by 14 points, I don't blame him for thinking he could pull off what they did. Of course, it was hard to anticipate Kelly being so strong and McSally being so weak. 

[Dr. Arch]

To think that, in 2020, we'd have 2 Democrat senators from AZ. Enjoy your blanching, McSally.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Even allowing for a bit more volatility due to the proximity to both conventions, AZ-SEN is bordering on safe at this point. Could McSally's be the worst federal Republican underperformance of Trump?

If so, it wouldn't be for lack of cash.

[Roll Roons]

Even allowing for a bit more volatility due to the proximity to both conventions, AZ-SEN is bordering on safe at this point. Could McSally's be the worst federal Republican underperformance of Trump?

If so, it wouldn't be for lack of cash.

In the Senate, very possibly. Though Daines, Tillis and maybe Sullivan could also underperform him quite a bit.

Overall, probably not. My guess is that it'll either be the consistently weak Alex Mooney in WV-02 or some QAnon nut in a safe blue district.

[Webnicz]

If the rumors that Ducey picked a weak incumbent in the form of McSally in hope that she loses and he runs in 2022 is true it was an incredibly bad move. He knows faces the likelihood that Kelly maybe too entrenched to beat even in a Biden midterm. That's not even considering the COVID-19 disaster.

What’s even crazier is the actual reason given is that he believed that McSally had the best chance of winning in 2020. And if you know anything about the AZ bench for republicans than I 100% believe he did it with that intention, and if she didn’t win he’d run as the only other possible next best bet for the GOP in AZ.

[Roronoa D. Law]

If the rumors that Ducey picked a weak incumbent in the form of McSally in hope that she loses and he runs in 2022 is true it was an incredibly bad move. He knows faces the likelihood that Kelly maybe too entrenched to beat even in a Biden midterm. That's not even considering the COVID-19 disaster.

What’s even crazier is the actual reason given is that he believed that McSally had the best chance of winning in 2020. And if you know anything about the AZ bench for republicans than I 100% believe he did it with that intention, and if she didn’t win he’d run as the only other possible next best bet for the GOP in AZ.

I actually don't know much about the AZ GOP bench. Whenever I see people talk about who should have been appointed I always here Matt Salmon for AZ and Loudermilk for GA.

[Roll Roons]

If the rumors that Ducey picked a weak incumbent in the form of McSally in hope that she loses and he runs in 2022 is true it was an incredibly bad move. He knows faces the likelihood that Kelly maybe too entrenched to beat even in a Biden midterm. That's not even considering the COVID-19 disaster.

What’s even crazier is the actual reason given is that he believed that McSally had the best chance of winning in 2020. And if you know anything about the AZ bench for republicans than I 100% believe he did it with that intention, and if she didn’t win he’d run as the only other possible next best bet for the GOP in AZ.

I actually don't know much about the AZ GOP bench. Whenever I see people talk about who should have been appointed I always here Matt Salmon for AZ and Loudermilk for GA.

The congressional bench is Paul Gosar, Andy Biggs, Dave Schweikert and Debbie Lesko, which should tell you everything. In 2018, McSally was their strongest candidate by a mile.

[Roronoa D. Law]

If the rumors that Ducey picked a weak incumbent in the form of McSally in hope that she loses and he runs in 2022 is true it was an incredibly bad move. He knows faces the likelihood that Kelly maybe too entrenched to beat even in a Biden midterm. That's not even considering the COVID-19 disaster.

What’s even crazier is the actual reason given is that he believed that McSally had the best chance of winning in 2020. And if you know anything about the AZ bench for republicans than I 100% believe he did it with that intention, and if she didn’t win he’d run as the only other possible next best bet for the GOP in AZ.

I actually don't know much about the AZ GOP bench. Whenever I see people talk about who should have been appointed I always here Matt Salmon for AZ and Loudermilk for GA.

The congressional bench is Paul Gosar, Andy Biggs, Dave Schweikert and Debbie Lesko, which should tell you everything. In 2018, McSally was their strongest candidate by a mile.

It's amazing how bad the Republicans bench is in AZ and GA. A lot of these people really just got by because they're in Republican states.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If the rumors that Ducey picked a weak incumbent in the form of McSally in hope that she loses and he runs in 2022 is true it was an incredibly bad move. He knows faces the likelihood that Kelly maybe too entrenched to beat even in a Biden midterm. That's not even considering the COVID-19 disaster.

What’s even crazier is the actual reason given is that he believed that McSally had the best chance of winning in 2020. And if you know anything about the AZ bench for republicans than I 100% believe he did it with that intention, and if she didn’t win he’d run as the only other possible next best bet for the GOP in AZ.

I actually don't know much about the AZ GOP bench. Whenever I see people talk about who should have been appointed I always here Matt Salmon for AZ and Loudermilk for GA.

The congressional bench is Paul Gosar, Andy Biggs, Dave Schweikert and Debbie Lesko, which should tell you everything. In 2018, McSally was their strongest candidate by a mile.

Surely a row officer or recent ex-incumbent could have been convinced. Would Jan Brewer have been all that bad?

[Calthrina950]

If McSally truly did lose by double digits, that would constitute an absolutely humiliating performance on her part, especially given that she lost by just 2% in 2018. I don't think her final margin of defeat will be that wide, but a 6-9 pt. loss to Kelly is definitely plausible at this point.