TX - University of Houston/YouGov: Trump +5

[Person Man]

This isn’t new but I love that when a poll of Texas/Ohio/Iowa/GA comes out and its like Trump +4 or 5, people act like the state is safe Trump. But a Biden +4 or +5 is tilt or slightly lean Biden

If you believe in shy Trump voters it's logical to view things that way.

Except the whole basis for shy Trump supporters is pretty illogical.

Exactly. Just by driving around, you would think Trump is up 9, not down by 9.

[It’s so Joever]

Poor Atlas.
The bubble is finally beginning to burst.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Poor Atlas.
The bubble is finally beginning to burst.

Hey! You're on this plane too, Forumlurker!

[KaiserDave]

Poor Atlas.
The bubble is finally beginning to burst.

Would you shut up man

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Poor Atlas.
The bubble is finally beginning to burst.

OK Doomer.

[Malarkey Decider]

I ignored every other poll that came out today so I could make myself feel good about my prediction.

[Yellowhammer]

Texas is... you guessed it... Safe D.

[WD]

Poor Atlas.
The bubble is finally beginning to burst.

You ever consider shutting up? Your whole act is getting old.

[ExSky]

Texas pollsters really cannot poll Latinos.

2016: Clinton +27
2018: Beto +29
2020: Biden +18

That's not happening.

The average for TX right now is spot on but a lot of these pollsters like this one are likely to have egg on their face. Even if Biden loses TX, he's not losing by 5.

This is a big reason polls have been consistently off in the democrats favor for the last decade. The Democrat wins by a large margin with Latinos, and then polling shows that gal to be smaller in the next elections and everyone freaks out because they think the GOP is gaining with Latinos. And then we get to the election...and what do you know the Democrat has won the demo by their usual margin. Pollsters simply can not nail down the Latino voters. 

Except the polling top line has continued to shrink even as this error continues to persist.

[Alben Barkley]

Poor Atlas.
The bubble is finally beginning to burst.

Oh no! We might not win (checks notes) Texas. I guess it really is all over now.

[Sir Mohamed]

It was fun while it lasted.. seriously though, Trump is probably winning TX by about 2 pts, but I wouldn't be surprised if Biden actually won. Somehow I'm getting Rust Belt '16 vibes with TX and GA.

[Gracile]

Throw it in the average. Texas is still very much a tossup race.

[Fusternino]

Not surprising. A lot of the large EV is . . . Trump supporters. TX is going to have one of the smallest proportion of ED votes.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This thread will be a lot of fun to bump next week!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

This thread will be a lot of fun to bump next week!

Depending on the approaching NYT poll, you may only have to wait about eighteen minutes. 

[BigSerg]

This thread will be a lot of fun to bump next week!

Depending on the approaching NYT poll, you may only have to wait about eighteen minutes. 

hahaha

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I can't see this polling margin happening. I just can't. The state is likely to be extremely close due to competing turnout factors.

[MT Treasurer]

I can't see this polling margin happening. I just can't. The state is likely to be extremely close due to competing turnout factors.

Even if Trump wins TX (possible but by no means guaranteed), it won’t be a better result than what Cruz received. He’s not going to do better in TX than IA either.

People should trust the fundamentals and trends more than individual polls and cherry-picked early voting reporting.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I can't see this polling margin happening. I just can't. The state is likely to be extremely close due to competing turnout factors.

Even if Trump wins TX (possible but by no means guaranteed), it won’t be a better result than what Cruz received. He’s not going to do better in TX than IA either.

People should trust the fundamentals and trends more than individual polls and cherry-picked early voting reporting.

fyi I still think +4 Trump is within range of possibility in outcomes even if it's highly improbable.
But otherwise I agree totally.

[Badger]

It appears that Biden's that's the sound result will be at best comprable, if not slightly lower than O'Rourke's two years ago. That's highly disappointing.

All this assumes that the poles are counting Hispanics accurately, though

[Hammy]

YouGov under-polled Dems by four points in 2018, putting it in the D+2/R+2 range I'm expecting it to fall.

[super6646]

Slightly reassuring.  Sad as hell I need to be reassured about Texas a week before the election though.

Nahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[BigSerg]

Texas pollsters really cannot poll Latinos.

2016: Clinton +27
2018: Beto +29
2020: Biden +18

That's not happening.

The average for TX right now is spot on but a lot of these pollsters like this one are likely to have egg on their face. Even if Biden loses TX, he's not losing by 5.

[ElectionsGuy]

This thread will be a lot of fun to bump next week!

Sure is. They got it right, and you got it badly wrong, belittling others who viewed Texas as an R-leaning state.