Who will be the 2024 Republican Presidential nominee (Post RNC edition)?

[Heebie Jeebie]

I'm surprised more people aren't saying Ted Cruz.  He was the runner-up in 2016, he's still relatively young, and Texas  is a must-win for Republicans.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Of the choices not on the list, Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton are the most obvious choices.

That said, regardless of whether Trump wins or loses, I think the nominee in 2024 will be as different from him as possible and they might have to compete with a Kamala Harris or AOC candidacy, so I think they'll nominate a woman.

Nikki Haley is the strongest possible female candidate, but she'd do poorly in all southern primaries (except for South Carolina) and might have problems winning the nomination.

Sarah Palin, if she runs is still admired by the base, but memories of her 2008 VP campaign will be difficult to shake, especially in states like New Hampshire.

I'd watch for Kirsti Noem, Joni Ernst and possibly Lisa Murkowski/Kelly Ayotte as well.

I like AOC, but she's not going to be the Democratic nominee any time soon.  Maybe in twenty years, but not in this generation.

If the 2024 Republican nominee is a white guy (and I see no reason to think Pence won't be the nominee), then Nikki Haley might be a shoe-in for the veep slot.  I can't see a path to her winning the nomination in her own right, but being second on the 2024 ticket sets her up to be top of the ticket in 2028.   

[Heebie Jeebie]

Assuming Trump loses, one of Cotton, Hawley, or Tucker Carlson is most likely.  I really don't think Republicans would nominate another member of the Trump family right after a Trump loss.  I could maybe see Trump Jr. or Ivanka getting the nomination in 2028 or 2032.

I honestly can't see how Cotton or Hawley have any shot at all.  They both start with near zero name recognition with Republican voters (political insiders love them, but ask Marco Rubio how helpful that is), and their politics are basically indistinguishable from any other mainstream Republican who might choose to run.  Why would voters flock to them instead of some other generic nationalist reactionary?

Carlson, if he were to run (and I don't see a reason to think he actually will), could be interesting--well-known television personality willing to appeal to the worst aspects of our national character?  It's Trump 2.0, right?  Potentially, but I'm skeptical.  In 2016, Trump benefited from a divided field, and no single mainstream alternative emerged until it was too late.  (Side note:  If Paul Ryan had run, he'd be president right now.)  I expect that, given an obvious next-in-line to rally around (Pence), the party would fall in line in 2024 to keep another erratic media creation from disrupting the far right's project. 

[Heebie Jeebie]

Pence wants to be president, and you don't become president by not running. In 2024, Pence will start with near universal name recognition, he'll be strongly associated with Trump while also being broadly acceptable to party insiders. Plus, the Republican party isn't defined by competing factions the way the Democratic Party is--there's no institutional opposition to Pence waiting in the offing. It's his nomination to lose.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Mike Pence will be the Republican nominee in 2024. He will lose quite badly to President Biden or (more likely) Vice President Harris.

As per the forty year cycle, Pence would, like Mondale, be the Midwestern former Vice President from the previous, unpopular administration.

Furthermore, I expect Ron DeSantis will be the Republican nominee in 2028. His approval may have been underwater recently - but he'll end up recovering and win a second term during the 2022 midterms. Practically the minute he leaves office in 2027, he will announce his Presidential campaign, but he will eventually lose to Harris, who will either be President or still Vice President at the time.

I think DeSantis is a likely pick for Haley's running mate in 2028.  If/when that ticket loses to Harris, DeSantis will run to replace Scott in the Senate in 2030.  If he wins that race, he gets the presidential nomination in 2032.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I think Paul Ryan would have a good shot at the nomination if he were to run.

Edit:  Expanding on this...Ryan has a very high level of name recognition compared to many of the other potential candidates.  He bailed out of Congress at the right time--disappearing before impeachment, Covid, etc.  But, he was there to get the Trump tax cuts through, Republicans' only really legislative "win" of the last decade.  And while no one would ever call Ryan charismatic, he certainly has more charm than Cotton, Hawley, et. al. 

If I had to rank the top three Republicans I think are most likely to get the 2024 nomination, I'd say
1.  Pence
2.  Cruz
3.  Ryan

[Heebie Jeebie]

I think Paul Ryan would have a good shot at the nomination if he were to run.

Edit:  Expanding on this...Ryan has a very high level of name recognition compared to many of the other potential candidates.  He bailed out of Congress at the right time--disappearing before impeachment, Covid, etc.  But, he was there to get the Trump tax cuts through, Republicans' only really legislative "win" of the last decade.  And while no one would ever call Ryan charismatic, he certainly has more charm than Cotton, Hawley, et. al. 

If I had to rank the top three Republicans I think are most likely to get the 2024 nomination, I'd say
1.  Pence
2.  Cruz
3.  Ryan

Is...this a joke post?

Trump's win was a complete and total refutation of Ryan's brand of politics. There's zero chance the GOP will ever go back to Ryanism for a long time.

I'm not sure why you think that.  What is "Ryanism," exactly?  Hypocritical, opportunistic deficit scolding?  A fanatical obsession with cutting taxes for the rich, destroying the social safety net, and empowering corporations to abuse their workers and poison our water and air?  Reactionary extremism filtered through condescending smugness?  That all sounds like the present and future of the GOP to me.  I mean, come on.  Ryan was Trump's number one enabler for his first two years in office.  What's the difference between "Ryanism" and "Trumpism"?

[Heebie Jeebie]

I think Paul Ryan would have a good shot at the nomination if he were to run.

Edit:  Expanding on this...Ryan has a very high level of name recognition compared to many of the other potential candidates.  He bailed out of Congress at the right time--disappearing before impeachment, Covid, etc.  But, he was there to get the Trump tax cuts through, Republicans' only really legislative "win" of the last decade.  And while no one would ever call Ryan charismatic, he certainly has more charm than Cotton, Hawley, et. al. 

If I had to rank the top three Republicans I think are most likely to get the 2024 nomination, I'd say
1.  Pence
2.  Cruz
3.  Ryan

Is...this a joke post?

Trump's win was a complete and total refutation of Ryan's brand of politics. There's zero chance the GOP will ever go back to Ryanism for a long time.

I'm not sure why you think that.  What is "Ryanism," exactly?  Hypocritical, opportunistic deficit scolding?  A fanatical obsession with cutting taxes for the rich, destroying the social safety net, and empowering corporations to abuse their workers and poison our water and air?  Reactionary extremism filtered through condescending smugness?  That all sounds like the present and future of the GOP to me.  I mean, come on.  Ryan was Trump's number one enabler for his first two years in office.  What's the difference between "Ryanism" and "Trumpism"?

Aesthetics mostly, and it's fair to say that the genie is out of the bottle in that regard. 

Yeah, but his "aesthetics" have been terrible for the party, and for himself.  Trump has polled miserably throughout his entire time in office, despite inheriting three years of peace and prosperity.  Republicans were hammered in the 2018 midterms because Trump was an anchor around their throats.  Cultural polarization pressures a lot of conservatives to give him their support, but most Republicans are on the whole decent people who are rightfully embarrassed by him.  Don't forget that Trump only won 45% of the vote in the 2016 Republican primaries.  Trump's base of deplorables are loud, but they're a minority.