Who will be the 2024 Republican Presidential nominee (Post RNC edition)?

[LabourJersey]

Really surprised that a plurality think Pence is the most likely nominee. His instinct to appear both to the Trumpists while also being a "kinder, gentler" conservative isn't convincing to either side, in my opinion anyway. Personally I think the only politician I've seen manage to appeal to both the hardcore Trumpers and the 2004-2012 GOP voters is probably Rick Scott. 

He also has literally no charisma, and if there's one thing I learned from Trump winning the nomination in '16 is that GOP voters want a guy with some charisma who loves to get them the conservative-nationalist red meat.

Cotton and Hawley have zero charisma, which makes me skeptical they'd win.

[LabourJersey]

Really surprised that a plurality think Pence is the most likely nominee. His instinct to appear both to the Trumpists while also being a "kinder, gentler" conservative isn't convincing to either side, in my opinion anyway. Personally I think the only politician I've seen manage to appeal to both the hardcore Trumpers and the 2004-2012 GOP voters is probably Rick Scott. 

He also has literally no charisma, and if there's one thing I learned from Trump winning the nomination in '16 is that GOP voters want a guy with some charisma who loves to get them the conservative-nationalist red meat.

Cotton and Hawley have zero charisma, which makes me skeptical they'd win.

I think it needs to be said again that these are 90% the exact same people...

Very good point. I guess I'll amend this and say the two factions are the hardline, Trump-can-do-n-wrong types, and Republicans who have some issues with Trump but voted for him because they didn't like Clinton or dislike the left more than anything.

[LabourJersey]

I think Paul Ryan would have a good shot at the nomination if he were to run.

Edit:  Expanding on this...Ryan has a very high level of name recognition compared to many of the other potential candidates.  He bailed out of Congress at the right time--disappearing before impeachment, Covid, etc.  But, he was there to get the Trump tax cuts through, Republicans' only really legislative "win" of the last decade.  And while no one would ever call Ryan charismatic, he certainly has more charm than Cotton, Hawley, et. al. 

If I had to rank the top three Republicans I think are most likely to get the 2024 nomination, I'd say
1.  Pence
2.  Cruz
3.  Ryan

Is...this a joke post?

Trump's win was a complete and total refutation of Ryan's brand of politics. There's zero chance the GOP will ever go back to Ryanism for a long time.

[LabourJersey]

I think Paul Ryan would have a good shot at the nomination if he were to run.

Edit:  Expanding on this...Ryan has a very high level of name recognition compared to many of the other potential candidates.  He bailed out of Congress at the right time--disappearing before impeachment, Covid, etc.  But, he was there to get the Trump tax cuts through, Republicans' only really legislative "win" of the last decade.  And while no one would ever call Ryan charismatic, he certainly has more charm than Cotton, Hawley, et. al. 

If I had to rank the top three Republicans I think are most likely to get the 2024 nomination, I'd say
1.  Pence
2.  Cruz
3.  Ryan

Is...this a joke post?

Trump's win was a complete and total refutation of Ryan's brand of politics. There's zero chance the GOP will ever go back to Ryanism for a long time.

Not really at all ... maybe his demeanor.

Demeanor and Aesthetics matter a lot in politics. Has been for a long time.

I'm not suggesting that the GOP will actually protect social security or increase the welfare state or anything like that. But Paul Ryan's manner of politics was to be a clean-cut man who politely would try to cut the welfare state, and talk about the policies meant to cut the welfare state.

Trump's victory made it clear that the GOP doesn't care about policy; they care about culture and their anger regarding culture. A guy like Ryan wouldn't win in that environment because it's clear he wants to talk about policy and whatnot over culture red meat.

I guess I was a little too strong calling the suggestion a joke, but I think it's kind of clear that Ryan was done with electoral politics, at least for a long time. And also I don't think he's popular with many swing voters who remember 2012 (and a non-insignificant part of the Trump coalition included 2012 swing voters)