The first human being to land on Mars will be a...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

A Chinese man is the most likely choice right now.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I feel sorry for Tender Branson. Austria not being on the list must hurt him a lot.

If it is a mission conducted by the European Space Agency, might be an Austrian. He or she will put the blue flag with the circle of yellow stars and the red white red flag on the Mars surface.

The chances for that are very low because there is currently no Austronaut at ESA.

There are 3 Italians, 2 Germans, 1 French, 1 British and 1 Danish active astronauts.

A Mars landing is presumably far enough in the future that it'll probably be none of these people, so Austria still has a chance.

I can't see the ESA wasting money on a manned Mars mission. The only way a European is the first to set foot on Mars is if ey is part of a Mars colonization effort.

Right now China is the only country that potentially has both the capability and interest in a mission to send people to Mars and returning em.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I feel sorry for Tender Branson. Austria not being on the list must hurt him a lot.

If it is a mission conducted by the European Space Agency, might be an Austrian. He or she will put the blue flag with the circle of yellow stars and the red white red flag on the Mars surface.

The chances for that are very low because there is currently no Austronaut at ESA.

There are 3 Italians, 2 Germans, 1 French, 1 British and 1 Danish active astronauts.

A Mars landing is presumably far enough in the future that it'll probably be none of these people, so Austria still has a chance.

I can't see the ESA wasting money on a manned Mars mission. The only way a European is the first to set foot on Mars is if ey is part of a Mars colonization effort.

Right now China is the only country that potentially has both the capability and interest in a mission to send people to Mars and returning em.

They don't have any experience with super heavy technology. The SLS is actually finishing testing but I still don't think that is a serious effort. It just seems like welfare at this point. If the Super Heavy program is successful, I can see that being the first vehicle to fly to Mars with people. My guess is if it succeeds, it will do so in the early 2030s because Elon is right now thinking mid-2020s. This is based on the preponderance of past Space X programs and their current progress on the current one.

Elon might have the technical ability to do a Mars mission this decade, but unless he can get some sucker to fund it, it won't happen. Neither NASA nor ESA is gonna fund it and I can't see any other Western organization with even the interest.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In order to have funds, the mission could have sponsors, like Coca Cola, McDonald's, IBM, Nike, Siemens, Bayer, BMW, Rolex, Gazprom, Nokia, Xiaomi etc. The sponsors could write their logos on the rocket, the shuttle and on the clothes of the crew.

Space missions are risky.  The last thing any potential sponsor would want is for their logo be plastered on the side of an exploding rocket.  Musk might be able to get free food and maybe a little money from a sponsor.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

(I don't expect China to magically become a part of that group anytime soon, & there's no way a Chinese space program beats all of those nations' combined efforts to have the 1st manned mission to Mars. Hell, even today, a manned mission to the Moon is still incredibly expensive & difficult, & I think China would have to at least do that as well as a rover landing on Mars before even thinking about a manned mission to Mars.)

CLEP already has achieved a rover on the far side of the moon, is on target for a sample return probe by 2025 and a manned lunar mission by 2030.

I think it likely that there will be a Chinese Martian mission by 2040 and almost certainly by 2050.

While the West has the technical capability of getting to Mars sooner, I just don't see the funding being there.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

(I don't expect China to magically become a part of that group anytime soon, & there's no way a Chinese space program beats all of those nations' combined efforts to have the 1st manned mission to Mars. Hell, even today, a manned mission to the Moon is still incredibly expensive & difficult, & I think China would have to at least do that as well as a rover landing on Mars before even thinking about a manned mission to Mars.)

CLEP already has achieved a rover on the far side of the moon, is on target for a sample return probe by 2025 and a manned lunar mission by 2030.

I think it likely that there will be a Chinese Martian mission by 2040 and almost certainly by 2050.

While the West has the technical capability of getting to Mars sooner, I just don't see the funding being there.

the funding might magically appear if the PRC starts making serious plans to do so first.

Doubtful. The Cold War space race was due to both military and national prestige concerns. There is no military or scientific significance to a manned mission to Mars. I don't see where the political will is likely to exist in the West for the expenditure of the sums needed for a purely prestige mission.