NC-ECU: Cunningham +0
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Author Topic: NC-ECU: Cunningham +0  (Read 1439 times)
VAR
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« on: September 01, 2020, 02:37:33 PM »
« edited: September 01, 2020, 02:58:55 PM by VARepublican »

Cunningham (D) 44.1% (-0.2)
Tillis (R, inc.) 43.6% (+4.1)

with leaners

Cunningham (D) 45.6%
Tillis (R, inc.) 45.2%

https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-of-likely-voters-in-north-carolina-trump-leads-biden-by-two-points-tillis-and-cunningham-tied-cooper-leads-forest-by-ten-points-other-statewide-races-competitive
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2020, 02:41:23 PM »

Awful poll for Democrats.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: September 01, 2020, 02:41:55 PM »


Yep! Might as well throw out every other poll besides this one! Totally not an outlier!
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WD
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« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2020, 02:43:51 PM »


Yep! Might as well throw out every other poll besides this one! Totally not an outlier!

I think he was being sarcastic?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2020, 02:46:45 PM »


Yep! Might as well throw out every other poll besides this one! Totally not an outlier!

I think he was being sarcastic?

No, I wasnít, actually. It remains to be seen if this poll is an "outlier," but the trend isnít good for Cunningham by any means, and Trump +2/Cooper +10 isnít that hard to believe either.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: September 01, 2020, 02:53:06 PM »

We'll have to see if more polls prove this, but this wouldn't be a great trendline for Democrats in this race. Still, it does have Tillis (narrowly) losing while Trump wins the state, so that goes to show how dependent Tillis is on a decent to good national environment for Republicans to win.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2020, 02:58:13 PM »

Not a great poll for Cunningham. Still surprised there are so many undecideds; that may help Tillis, since the ballots are literally about to be mailed out to NC voters in a few days. Or maybe Cunningham could win by more than expected.

This reminds me of the 2016 presidential race.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #7 on: September 01, 2020, 02:59:59 PM »

August 29-30, 2020
1101 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%

It should be noted that showing changes here isn't really valid as the last poll used RVs and this is the first to use LVs.

Some other candidate 2.7%
Undecided 9.4%
Would not choose to vote for this office on the ballot 0.2%
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The Address That Must Not be Named
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« Reply #8 on: September 01, 2020, 03:06:19 PM »

Lol decimals
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: September 01, 2020, 03:18:18 PM »



No, its not Cunningham was never gonna win by 10 and neither is Kelly
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S019
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« Reply #10 on: September 01, 2020, 03:26:25 PM »

Hot take: Tillis at 43% isn't a bad poll for Dems, all it shows is that Tillis isn't on track to lose by 8-10 points, but this isn't in any way a good poll for Republicans, also it's just one poll, so we'll wait, but Tillis has constantly been mired in the low 40's, which is not a good place at all for an incumbent.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #11 on: September 01, 2020, 04:03:11 PM »


Yep! Might as well throw out every other poll besides this one! Totally not an outlier!

I think he was being sarcastic?

No, I wasnít, actually. It remains to be seen if this poll is an "outlier," but the trend isnít good for Cunningham by any means, and Trump +2/Cooper +10 isnít that hard to believe either.

Isnít this the first poll in a while not showing it a Cunningham blowout? I wouldnít call that a trend.
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morgieb
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« Reply #12 on: September 01, 2020, 05:18:05 PM »


Yep! Might as well throw out every other poll besides this one! Totally not an outlier!

I think he was being sarcastic?

No, I wasnít, actually. It remains to be seen if this poll is an "outlier," but the trend isnít good for Cunningham by any means, and Trump +2/Cooper +10 isnít that hard to believe either.

Isnít this the first poll in a while not showing it a Cunningham blowout? I wouldnít call that a trend.
Yeah this could easily just be an outlier. Agree it isn't great but even here Tillis is mired in the mid-40's.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: September 01, 2020, 07:04:46 PM »

You people are a riot. We literally got 5 or 6 straight polls of Cunningham with like 5+ pt leads and then one poll from an R-leaning pollster gives us a tie and the bed wetting starts about how this is "not a good poll for CUnningham!!!"

really?!
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #14 on: September 01, 2020, 08:12:26 PM »

You people are a riot. We literally got 5 or 6 straight polls of Cunningham with like 5+ pt leads and then one poll from an R-leaning pollster gives us a tie and the bed wetting starts about how this is "not a good poll for CUnningham!!!"

really?!

North Carolina is not a guaranteed flip for Democrats, as you seem to be treating it as, and both Tillis and Trump could very well still eke out a win-much like how Susan Collins still has a chance in Maine, and Joni Ernst in Iowa. I think it's a good thing for us to remain skeptical, and to keep our eyes focused on these competitive races-as surely do the campaigns themselves. Complacency results in defeat, and my belief is that a good candidate always fights and acts as if they are behind, so they don't get caught sleeping.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: September 01, 2020, 11:17:54 PM »

NC is starting Early Voting this week, so any polls that show a tightening of the races, should be taken with a grain of salt, Biden is gonna rack up Early Voting and VBM ballots before Nov 3rd Trump voters, whom are elderly, get to the polls.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #16 on: September 02, 2020, 02:43:49 PM »

Even if not the best for Cunningham, Tillis just not getting above 44% in any poll as an incumbent should be a huge red flag for him.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: September 02, 2020, 02:53:48 PM »

Even if not the best for Cunningham, Tillis just not getting above 44% in any poll as an incumbent should be a huge red flag for him.

Cornyn hasnít gotten more than 44% in six of the last eight polls, and his race is considered Likely R.
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S019
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« Reply #18 on: September 02, 2020, 03:01:13 PM »

Even if not the best for Cunningham, Tillis just not getting above 44% in any poll as an incumbent should be a huge red flag for him.

Cornyn hasnít gotten more than 44% in six of the last eight polls, and his race is considered Likely R.

Not by everyone, I think it's a tossup (Cornyn wins by 0.5, gun to my head), and Cook and Sabato are too reluctant to move potentially competitive races, anyways
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President Johnson
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« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2020, 02:28:49 PM »

Even if not the best for Cunningham, Tillis just not getting above 44% in any poll as an incumbent should be a huge red flag for him.

Cornyn hasnít gotten more than 44% in six of the last eight polls, and his race is considered Likely R.

Well, Cornyn is leading in most of his polls, Tillis at this point barely gets anymore than a tie with a ton of undecideds. I don't think this race will be decided by a likely margin, but Cunningham seems to be favored as things stand right now.
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