NC-ECU: Trump +2

[VAR]

Trump 49% (+2)
Biden 47%

https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-of-likely-voters-in-north-carolina-trump-leads-biden-by-two-points-tillis-and-cunningham-tied-cooper-leads-forest-by-ten-points-other-statewide-races-competitive

[Devils30]

This one's had a pretty persistent GOP house effect so far. We really need a bunch of higher quality polling than what we've had the past 3 weeks.

[Woody]

SOLID SOUTH FOR TRUMP

[Podgy the Bear]

Of the three states (FL, GA, NC) the Democrats are looking to flip, NC will be the hardest.

[Kuumo]

This poll’s results seem believable. Cunningham probably won’t outperform Biden by more than about 2 points.

SOLID SOUTH FOR TRUMP

Good luck with flipping Virginia.

[Horus]

Looks about right

[CellarDoor]

This poll’s results seem believable. Cunningham probably won’t outperform Biden by more than about 2 points.

SOLID SOUTH FOR TRUMP

Good luck with flipping Virginia.

That's certainly possible.  Cunningham only being up 1 is an outlier, however.  

[wbrocks67]

Eh, this has Trump's approval at 49/49, which is still pretty high.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Having the convention in Charlotte probably helped Trump's poll numbers.

[MT Treasurer]

NC isn’t more competitive than GA. Tilt R.

[Rand]

Didn't Obama get reelected without NC?

[Skill and Chance]

NC isn’t more competitive than GA. Tilt R.

Agreed, also looking like a fairly consistent 2%ish convention bump for Trump.

[Xing]

Tilt R. Biden could still win it, but I think GA is slightly more likely to flip, and FL is absolutely more likely to flip.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

August 29-30, 2020
1101 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%

It should be noted that showing changes here isn't really valid as the last poll used RVs and this is the first to use LVs.

Some other candidate 1.8%
Undecided 2.9%

[Mail-order President]

If NC trends D by a point, then this result would be in line with Biden +2 nationwide

[MT Treasurer]

If NC trends D by a point, then this result would be in line with Biden +2 nationwide

There are absolutely no signs that NC is going to trend D in this election.

[Mail-order President]

If NC trends D by a point, then this result would be in line with Biden +2 nationwide

There are absolutely no signs that NC is going to trend D in this election.

North Carolina has trended D every election since 04, it will again, even with a R trend of a point its Biden +4

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If NC trends D by a point, then this result would be in line with Biden +2 nationwide

There are absolutely no signs that NC is going to trend D in this election.

North Carolina has trended D every election since 04, it will again

Out-of-state migration looks set to change this.

[ON Progressive]

Landline and online panel? Seriously? At least it isn’t landline and MTurk (glares at Emerson), but still subpar.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

approval locked at 49-49 for Trump, should be a very tight race at the end if that's right.

[Roronoa D. Law]

If NC trends D by a point, then this result would be in line with Biden +2 nationwide

There are absolutely no signs that NC is going to trend D in this election.

North Carolina has trended D every election since 04, it will again

Out-of-state migration looks set to change this.

Those broke retirees who can't afford Florida keep moving to Georgia and the Carolinas. If they want mountains I heard Tennessee is nice.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It should be noted NC is starting Early Voting this week, it should spell good news for Biden. As polls are gonna conflict from now until Election day, due to VBM, and Early Voting Numbers and the In person voting.

Thats why we see discrepencies in polling

[Progressive Pessimist]

This state is really going to come down to the wire...hopefully. It still could mislead us again like in 2016 and remain fool's gold for Democrats.

Really, as long as Cunningham wins, I'll be content enough.

[Illiniwek]

North Carolina and Georgia are not happening. Biden's ceiling is 2016 + Rust Belt 3 + FL + AZ.

[Progressive Pessimist]

North Carolina and Georgia are not happening. Biden's ceiling is 2016 + Rust Belt 3 + FL + AZ.

That's probably his most likely victory map at this point (don't forget about NE-2 also probably flipping though). But Biden's campaign has the money to continue at least attempting to gain the reach states, especially in an effort to assist with equally important down-ballot races.