MI-PPP: Biden +4

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I await the meltdown and the attempts to disregard, if the Monmouth poll tomorrow shows Pennsylvania within 3-5 points..

[roxas11]

I know some will freak out at the Big headline numbers but honestly this is not a Bad poll Biden
if anything there are Huge red flags and warning signs for trump in this poll

the biggest is the rising approval numbers for both Biden and Whitmer.
Biden approval and disapproval is now nearly equal


trump approval numbers have not improved at all after the RNC convention
and this poll actually shows an uptick in his disprovel rating

that suggest that trump many not be helped by these riots the way that some on here may have thought he would

all in all if these numbers hold trump is not winning Michigan

Hillary was winning MI by 5 right before election day according to this pollster.  I wouldn't be celebrating if I were a red avatar

which is why I ignored their Headline numbers and pointed out that Unlike Hillary
Biden approval Numbers are a lot better than her's was in this state and in the rest of the county

that is going play A big role in this election this time around
the reality is Biden is simply way more popular than Hillary at this point and trump will either have to significantly improve his poll numbers or drag Biden down with him in if went to get reelected

[Horus]

I know some will freak out at the Big headline numbers but honestly this is not a Bad poll Biden
if anything there are Huge red flags and warning signs for trump in this poll

the biggest is the rising approval numbers for both Biden and Whitmer.
Biden approval and disapproval is now nearly equal


trump approval numbers have not improved at all after the RNC convention
and this poll actually shows an uptick in his disprovel rating

that suggest that trump many not be helped by these riots the way that some on here may have thought he would

all in all if these numbers hold trump is not winning Michigan

Hillary was winning MI by 5 right before election day according to this pollster.  I wouldn't be celebrating if I were a red avatar

which is why I ignored their Headline numbers and pointed out that Unlike Hillary
Biden approval Numbers are a lot better than her's was in this state and in the rest of the county

that is going play A big role in this election this time around
the reality is Biden is simply way more popular than Hillary at this point and trump will either have to significantly improve his poll numbers or drag Biden down with him in if went to get reelected

The problem is Trump is impeccably good at dragging others into the swamp with him. So far Biden has remained above that, the debates will be the true test.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I await the meltdown and the attempts to disregard, if the Monmouth poll tomorrow shows Pennsylvania within 3-5 points..

 
Early voting and VBM are starting this month, which will pad Biden's lead, that should spell trouble for Trump, and cause discrepencies in the polls. I think Biden is assured 279 to 291 EC votes, blue wall isnt cracking with elevated unemployment, like it did in 16 on Benghazi and 4.7 percent unemployment

[MT Treasurer]

I await the meltdown and the attempts to disregard, if the Monmouth poll tomorrow shows Pennsylvania within 3-5 points..

I’ll predict the number of pages the thread will have depending on the size of Biden's lead:

Biden +3: Six pages
Biden +4: Four pages
Biden +2: Ten pages
Biden +5: Three pages

[Del Tachi]

I know some will freak out at the Big headline numbers but honestly this is not a Bad poll Biden
if anything there are Huge red flags and warning signs for trump in this poll

the biggest is the rising approval numbers for both Biden and Whitmer.
Biden approval and disapproval is now nearly equal


trump approval numbers have not improved at all after the RNC convention
and this poll actually shows an uptick in his disprovel rating

that suggest that trump many not be helped by these riots the way that some on here may have thought he would

all in all if these numbers hold trump is not winning Michigan

Hillary was winning MI by 5 right before election day according to this pollster.  I wouldn't be celebrating if I were a red avatar

Polling averages are more useful than individual polls,  Clinton was up by 3 in the averages in MI on election day, the undecideds broke heavily for Trump. Not to mention that the polling averages got her vote share completely right. Today, in 538’s MI average Biden is up by more than 6 and is polling at 49.5% of the vote. Trump isn’t winning Michigan.

Wrong.  Biden is up 2.6 and doing much worse than hillary was right now

In RCP, which includes Trash polls like Trafalgar, which throw the average off. 538 weights each poll to account for bias,  it’s much more accurate.

Weighting each poll to account for "bias" is only advisable if you're certain what/how big the bias is.  I'm not convinced Nate Silver (or anyone else) really understands which polls are bias and by how much, and if that's the case you're better off just throwing everything into the average (which is what RCP does)

[Crumpets]

This is weird.

Democratic Party favorability: 38/50 (was 42/46)

What happened?

You might want to turn on the TV and see cities across the country on fire and rubble.

https://twitter.com/joshscampbell/status/1300823490396786689

There's a pretty common point of conversation in Seattle right now (and I assume Portland as well) of how many of us have friends/relatives from out of town calling us and messaging us to ask if we're okay because they saw on the news that we're under attack by BLM or anarchists are roaming the streets. It's not just a Trump narrative, it's a total failure by the media to report anything with any level of perspective.

[Rand]

[wbrocks67]

People realize that the last PPP poll had Biden +6? So this is't much of a change.

[Sbane]

I know some will freak out at the Big headline numbers but honestly this is not a Bad poll Biden
if anything there are Huge red flags and warning signs for trump in this poll

the biggest is the rising approval numbers for both Biden and Whitmer.
Biden approval and disapproval is now nearly equal


trump approval numbers have not improved at all after the RNC convention
and this poll actually shows an uptick in his disprovel rating

that suggest that trump many not be helped by these riots the way that some on here may have thought he would

all in all if these numbers hold trump is not winning Michigan

Hillary was winning MI by 5 right before election day according to this pollster.  I wouldn't be celebrating if I were a red avatar

Polling averages are more useful than individual polls,  Clinton was up by 3 in the averages in MI on election day, the undecideds broke heavily for Trump. Not to mention that the polling averages got her vote share completely right. Today, in 538’s MI average Biden is up by more than 6 and is polling at 49.5% of the vote. Trump isn’t winning Michigan.

Wrong.  Biden is up 2.6 and doing much worse than hillary was right now

In RCP, which includes Trash polls like Trafalgar, which throw the average off. 538 weights each poll to account for bias,  it’s much more accurate.

Weighting each poll to account for "bias" is only advisable if you're certain what/how big the bias is.  I'm not convinced Nate Silver (or anyone else) really understands which polls are bias and by how much, and if that's the case you're better off just throwing everything into the average (which is what RCP does)

Problem is RCP doesn't throw everything in there. They arbitrarily include some polls and not others. Fivethirtyeight might have more of a "secret sauce" but they do include everything.

[pbrower2a]

Trump did get his bump in the polls. There are still people scared of 'crime in the streets', and if Trump can foment trouble and play against it, he could win nationally.

But note well: it's a high-risk method that might be seen more for its destructiveness than anything else. 

[Gracile]

Michigan is a swing state.

[morgieb]

I do find it amusing all the Trump hacks calling PPP trash for good Biden results now going full "DEMS IN DISARRAY" over a merely OK one for Biden (not even a bad one!)

Anyway it's not a great result for Team D, but probably well within reason either.

[demoman1596]

This is weird.

Democratic Party favorability: 38/50 (was 42/46)

What happened?

You might want to turn on the TV and see cities across the country on fire and rubble.

There's a pretty common point of conversation in Seattle right now (and I assume Portland as well) of how many of us have friends/relatives from out of town calling us and messaging us to ask if we're okay because they saw on the news that we're under attack by BLM or anarchists are roaming the streets. It's not just a Trump narrative, it's a total failure by the media to report anything with any level of perspective.

Thanks for mentioning that, Crumpets.  I have experienced the friends/relatives from out of town calling on several occasions this year, as well.  I live in downtown Seattle.  It is not and has not been "on fire" to any large-scale degree whatsoever.  Same for Portland.  I know this doesn't fit the narrative, but people are going to trust their lived experiences far more than they will trust the TV.

What I've seen of the polling consistently shows that Democrats support BLM by an approximately 85-point margin, a number that hasn't changed for months.  Democrats and left-leaning independents haven't changed their minds and, I predict, will not be changing their minds.  One thing to consider is that Donald Trump--not known to be a person given a whole lot of credence by those very Democrats and left-leaning independents--is the one claiming the cities are "on fire" and "under attack."  I sincerely doubt Trump's rhetoric is going to move the needle in any meaningful way.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm still not worried too much about this state. Maybe it's because I never got my hopes up of Biden exceeding Obama's 2012 margins in the Midwest (though he may be able to match some of them).

It's still a pretty easy flip. As was noted before, those ~10,000 are very achievable. Especially if Trump has indeed triaged the state and Biden keeps reminding voters of the auto bailout.

[wbrocks67]

Trump did get his bump in the polls. There are still people scared of 'crime in the streets', and if Trump can foment trouble and play against it, he could win nationally.

But note well: it's a high-risk method that might be seen more for its destructiveness than anything else. 

all of the Morning Consult polls we just got would beg to differ.

[Andy Hine]

Looks like it’s that time of day again! : Atlas has a meltdown over a poll that has Trump gaining a single point.

It's a D internal, and even then Biden's struggling; this just strengthens the narrative that Biden is heavily underperforming in the Rust Belt.

A win is a win. Doesn't matter if Biden wins by 5 or 15 in any state. Either way, your dear leader gets sent packing.