MI-PPP: Biden +4

[VAR]

August 28-29

Biden 48% (-1)
Trump 44% (+1)
Jorgensen 3%
Hawkins 1%

Trump approval: 44/53 (was 44/51)
Biden favorability: 45/46 (was 40/46)
Whitmer approval: 55/39 (was 54/38)
GOP favorability: 37/50 (was 38/50)
Democratic Party favorability: 38/50 (was 42/46)

https://progressmichigan.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/MichiganResults_Sept.pdf

[WD]

Looks like it’s that time of day again! : Atlas has a meltdown over a poll that has Trump gaining a single point.

[MT Treasurer]

Consistent with a Biden +7-8 lead nationally. I expect most of the trends from 2012 -> 2016/2018 + the urban/suburban vs. rural/small-town divide to intensify in this election.

[wbrocks67]

PPP has been pretty bullish on Biden compared to others, this poll was like Biden +6 for 3 straight months, so within the MoE

[Woody]

Looks like it’s that time of day again! : Atlas has a meltdown over a poll that has Trump gaining a single point.

It's a D internal, and even then Biden's struggling; this just strengthens the narrative that Biden is heavily underperforming in the Rust Belt.

[Horus]

Jorgensen numbers look high, Amash effect?

[DrScholl]

Looks like it’s that time of day again! : Atlas has a meltdown over a poll that has Trump gaining a single point.

It's a D internal, and even then Biden's struggling; this just strengthens the narrative that Biden's heavily underperforming in the Rust Belt.

This election is over all but for the counting. Trump has lost and all this nonsense that Biden is struggling is just conservative delusion.

[Devils30]

Looks like it’s that time of day again! : Atlas has a meltdown over a poll that has Trump gaining a single point.

It's a D internal, and even then Biden's struggling; this just strengthens the narrative that Biden is heavily underperforming in the Rust Belt.

It actually is consistent with the Georgia poll yesterday. Hillary only did 5% worse in GA than MI in 2016 and with 4 years of demographic charge, a 3% gap is quite logical. It is easy to see Biden doing relatively weak in rust belt but better enough in the sun belt. Would not be shocked if Biden won like 5 states by 3% and GA/NC by 1% etc.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like it’s that time of day again! : Atlas has a meltdown over a poll that has Trump gaining a single point.

It's a D internal, and even then Biden's struggling; this just strengthens the narrative that Biden is heavily underperforming in the Rust Belt.

A poll done for a Democratic organization is not a D internal. This was not done for a campaign.

[Kuumo]

PPP says Michigan is only 3 points to the left of Texas! TRENDS ARE REAL.

[Podgy the Bear]

Seems right post convention.  Look for Biden to trend up again in the coming weeks.

[WD]

Looks like it’s that time of day again! : Atlas has a meltdown over a poll that has Trump gaining a single point.

It's a D internal, and even then Biden's struggling; this just strengthens the narrative that Biden is heavily underperforming in the Rust Belt.

It’s not a D internal, and if you think Trump polling at 44% is a good thing then I don’t know what to tell you.

[Woody]

Looks like it’s that time of day again! : Atlas has a meltdown over a poll that has Trump gaining a single point.

It's a D internal, and even then Biden's struggling; this just strengthens the narrative that Biden's heavily underperforming in the Rust Belt.

This election is over all but for the counting. Trump has lost and all this nonsense that Biden is struggling is just conservative delusion.

Dude, when you're leading by just 4 points in MI and FL in polls that favors you, that means it's competitive.

[neostassenite31]

The question now is whether Republicans can hold their numbers going into October  

[WD]

Looks like it’s that time of day again! : Atlas has a meltdown over a poll that has Trump gaining a single point.

It's a D internal, and even then Biden's struggling; this just strengthens the narrative that Biden's heavily underperforming in the Rust Belt.

This election is over all but for the counting. Trump has lost and all this nonsense that Biden is struggling is just conservative delusion.

Dude, when you're leading by just 4 points in MI and FL in polls that favors you, that means it's competitive.

Sorry, if your still down by 4 after your convention bump, and can’t even lead in most swing states then the election isn’t competitive.

[President Johnson]

Looks accurate, 44% is about what Trump will get. Maybe even a point or two higher.

[forza nocta]

This was done right after his Thursday speech so not bad

[Hindsight was 2020]

I know Woodbury is massively partisan but it still is hilarious watching him act like a Biden 48-44 Trump poll in a state Trump won last time reflects bad on Biden

[libertpaulian]

As I said earlier...Bill Clinton and Barack Obama made winning the Rust Belt look easier than it is in reality.

[Buzz]

I don’t think Trump should give up here.  Seems more likely than MN but what do I know.  

[Xing]

While I do think Biden is favored in Michigan, I really don't see it voting to the left of Minnesota, and I really doubt it's going to trend significantly Democratic or vote left of the PV.

[kireev]

I'd say the result is in line with the Morning Consult and YouGov polls taken right after the RNC: the horse race got a bit closer, but Trump's approval did not changed or even got a bit worse.

[wbrocks67]

August 28-29

Biden 48% (-1)
Trump 44% (+1)
Jorgensen 3%
Hawkins 1%

Trump approval: 44/53 (was 44/51)
Biden favorability: 45/46 (was 40/46)
Whitmer approval: 55/39 (was 54/38)
GOP favorability: 37/50

https://progressmichigan.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/MichiganResults_Sept.pdf

Huh... probably just within the MoE but interesting that Trump's approval is actually worse than last time, and Biden's favorability is better, yet Biden dropped a pt and Trump gained one. But it's probably just noise.

[Rand]

Biden cannot possibly overcome Trump's massive 10,704 victory over Clinton.

It simply CANNOT be done.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Contrary to the convention wisdom on this forum, PPP polls are generally not Dem internals, and do not have a strong D bias.

They have a B rating on 538, with the fifth most polls of any firm in their database, and a house effect of D+0.3.