Nevada-UNLV: Biden +5

[Gass3268]

Remember to add 4 points to the Democrat on top of any Nevada poll.

Pretty much. Also, let's not forget the new election law that will allow the Culinary Union and other groups to collect and return ballots.

[Gass3268]

Here's how this is gonna go:

1. Very early polls will have the Democrat leading.
2. Then the polls will shift and Trump will have a narrow to sometimes even a moderate lead. One poll will show Trump by double digits, event though they don't have a Spanish language option. Dems in disarray. Sean Trende will say something stupid and Harry Enten will say that the polls have never been wrong in Nevada.
3. The polls will then tighten about a month before the election. Everyone will then call it a Toss Up.
4. Early voting will start and it will be strong for the Democrats initially, but then the Republicans will recover during the first week after Trump does a visit. Jon Ralston will say it's close.
5. Democrats crush the early vote in the last week. Jon Ralston says it's essentially over.
6. Democrats win by 3-7 points.

We should be in phase 2 by now, but it's possible we are in phase 1. Maybe Biden has enough of a lead that the first few phases won't happen.