Morning Consult: AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, MN, NC, OH, PA, TX, WI: Biden +10, +10, +2, +3, +10, +7, +2...

[wbrocks67]

Why is he doing so much better than expected in Georgia and Arizona but not as good as expected in Pennsylvania?

Could just be the sample. AZ is probably too dem-friendly so PA might be a little too R-friendly

[roxas11]

Why is he doing so much better than expected in Georgia and Arizona but not as good as expected in Pennsylvania?

In Arizona Im convinced that Martha McSally is dragging trump numbers down with her
she is currently getting crushed by Mark Kelly in the polls and think that is hurting trump in the state overall

plus Morning Consult themselves pointed out that unlike other states like Pennsylvania
the polling AZ has remained stable and hey did not seem to be effected by the RNC convention or the recent riots


this should scare the heck out of Trump because it suggest that AZ voter are not moved by trump and GOP attempts to scare them 

those scare tactics may work on some voters is the Midwest but in AZ its simply is not working at all. trump may need an very different strategy if he wants to win that state in 2020

[AGA]

Biden is continuing to underperform in Pennsylvania.

Cool, big leads in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona though, gets him to 269 (which should be enough given the House is staying Democratic) but you can have your pick of Nebraska 2nd, Maine 2nd, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania or Georgia to get to 270.

Not how it works. GOP will likely control more house delegations.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Biden is continuing to underperform in Pennsylvania.

Cool, big leads in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona though, gets him to 269 (which should be enough given the House is staying Democratic) but you can have your pick of Nebraska 2nd, Maine 2nd, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania or Georgia to get to 270.

Not how it works. GOP will likely control more house delegations.

They don't just need to control more delegations, they need to control an absolute majority.  As they control the majority in 26 states right now, and there are a few places where a single seat flip could prevent this (most notably Florida).

[Pericles]

Biden is continuing to underperform in Pennsylvania.

Cool, big leads in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona though, gets him to 269 (which should be enough given the House is staying Democratic) but you can have your pick of Nebraska 2nd, Maine 2nd, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania or Georgia to get to 270.

Not how it works. GOP will likely control more house delegations.

They don't just need to control more delegations, they need to control an absolute majority.  As they control the majority in 26 states right now, and there are a few places where a single seat flip could prevent this (most notably Florida).

If the national environment is such that the presidential election ends up as a tie, the Republicans probably gain House seats.

[Progressive Pessimist]

All of this looks acceptable to me but Morning Consult is just so frustrating this year!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Lovely numbers for Uncle Joe! But Arizona and Pennsylvania are definitely little of an outlier, though in the latter case a four or five point win is reasonable. Arizona will be within two or three points at the presidential level.

I don’t know. This is the first time Biden’s lead there has been consistent with Mark Kelly’s. Possible he ends up winning by mid-high single digits.

I’m getting “Virginia in 2008” vibes when it comes to Arizona. When it finally flipped, it FLIPPED. And I can see something similar happen in Arizona.

It feels like the campaign dynamics are like 1980 while the election dynamics will be like 2008

Virginia 2008 = Arizona 2020
North Carolina 2008 = Texas or Georgia 2020
Wisconsin 2008 = Minnesota 2020?

[Andy Hine]

Biden is winning.