Morning Consult: AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, MN, NC, OH, PA, TX, WI: Biden +10, +10, +2, +3, +10, +7, +2...

[VAR]

August 21-30

AZ
Biden 52% (+7)
Trump 42% (-5)

CO
Biden 52% (+1)
Trump 42% (+1)

FL
Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 47% (+2)

GA
Biden 49% (+3)
Trump 46% (-1)

MI
Biden 52% (+2)
Trump 42% (-2)

MN
Biden 50%
Trump 43% (+1)

NC
Biden 49%
Trump 47% (+1)

OH
Trump 50% (+1)
Biden 45%

PA
Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 45% (+1)

TX
Trump 48% (+1)
Biden 47% (+1)

WI
Biden 52%
Trump 43%

https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH is going Dem with 20 percent AA

[Woody]

Biden is continuing to underperform in Pennsylvania.

[wbrocks67]

Biden is continuing to underperform in Pennsylvania.

Maybe you should average them out since we've gotten quite a few in recent days.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The 350 friewall.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL Arizona.
Two weeks ago it was Trump +2 and now it's Biden +10.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Although I'm loving that Georgia number, I'm most surprised that the only state not to show any movement was Wisconsin.

If this is a harbinger of polls to come, I fail to see how Trump makes up ground at this point. The last week was designed for him and his campaign

[wbrocks67]

Although I'm loving that Georgia number, I'm most surprised that the only state not to show any movement was Wisconsin.

If this is a harbinger of polls to come, I fail to see how Trump makes up ground at this point.

VAR must've missed it, but it did show movement... it was 6% a few weeks back as well as 6% right before the convention. So movement towards Biden, interestingly enough

[Hammy]

Biden is continuing to underperform in Pennsylvania.

How is he "underperforming" by leading in a state Trump won?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Biden is continuing to underperform in Pennsylvania.

How is he "underperforming" by leading in a state Trump won?

He was supposed to lead by ELEVENTY GAZZILION POINTS!!!
Checkmate libtards!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Although I'm loving that Georgia number, I'm most surprised that the only state not to show any movement was Wisconsin.

If this is a harbinger of polls to come, I fail to see how Trump makes up ground at this point.

VAR must've missed it, but it did show movement... it was 6% a few weeks back as well as 6% right before the convention. So movement towards Biden, interestingly enough

Looks like you're right. Since their pre-convention poll, Biden gained 3 points while Trump didn't move.

I'd like to see another poll of Wisconsin, preferably completely post-RNC. But if Trump couldn't gain anything in the midst of Kenosha, I don't think visiting the city or sympathizing with Mr Rittenhouse is gonna resurrect his campaign.

And that's not even getting into the inevitable COVID spike in the Midwest.

[Pericles]

Biden is continuing to underperform in Pennsylvania.

It takes a special kind of hackery to look at these numbers and think Biden is the one who is underperforming.

[Podgy the Bear]

Good news!  Biden needs a broad-based electoral vote landslide, i.e. greater than 350 EV--which will be the first step to get some normalcy back in this country.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Changes with August 7-16 sample, the numbers for which were also in this release.

943 likely voters in Arizona

MoEs between 2% and 4% per state

[woodley park]

Biden is continuing to underperform in Pennsylvania.

NUT gonna listen to your concern trolling. These are incredible results for Biden and show what a flop Trump’s convention was.

[morgieb]

What the hell happened in Arizona lol

But good to see an actual reputable pollster weigh in. Hopefully this stops the bedwetting.

[DaleCooper]

Small Biden leads in Georgia are one thing, but Biden at 49% in Georgia is something else entirely. If that continues then it'd arguably be the most ominous sign imaginable for Trump's campaign and the Republican national electoral strategy. There is absolutely no plausible path to victory for Trump in the event that Biden carries Georgia.

[wbrocks67]

Small Biden leads in Georgia are one thing, but Biden at 49% in Georgia is something else entirely. If that continues then it'd arguably be the most ominous sign imaginable for Trump's campaign and the Republican national electoral strategy. There is absolutely no plausible path to victory for Trump in the event that Biden carries Georgia.

Really hoping Biden campaign adds a little more $$ before October in GA.

[wbrocks67]

Also: this is the millionth poll we've gotten that shows TX a dead heat, btw.

Also, all the hand-wringing about Minnesota, where it was Biden+8 before and Biden+7 now. Lines up closely with the last reputable poll (PPP Biden +10) we got.

[Pulaski]

Biden is continuing to underperform in Pennsylvania.

Cool, big leads in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona though, gets him to 269 (which should be enough given the House is staying Democratic) but you can have your pick of Nebraska 2nd, Maine 2nd, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania or Georgia to get to 270.

[Podgy the Bear]

Although I'm loving that Georgia number, I'm most surprised that the only state not to show any movement was Wisconsin.

If this is a harbinger of polls to come, I fail to see how Trump makes up ground at this point.

VAR must've missed it, but it did show movement... it was 6% a few weeks back as well as 6% right before the convention. So movement towards Biden, interestingly enough

Looks like you're right. Since their pre-convention poll, Biden gained 3 points while Trump didn't move.

I'd like to see another poll of Wisconsin, preferably completely post-RNC. But if Trump couldn't gain anything in the midst of Kenosha, I don't think visiting the city or sympathizing with Mr Rittenhouse is gonna resurrect his campaign.

And that's not even getting into the inevitable COVID spike in the Midwest.

Sympathizing with a murderer like Rittenhouse doesn't get you anywhere.

[SnowLabrador]

Some of those numbers make no sense together.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Biden is continuing to underperform in Pennsylvania.

Responding to this to say that I don't know why so many are jumping on it. Within the relative scope of this set of polls, Biden is underperforming in PA (particularly when compared to AZ). Which isn't to say that, overall, this set of polls isn't good for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

Arizona being Biden+10 is probably just as wrong as them having Trump+2 in their last sample, so Biden +5 sounds about right (right in the middle)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Also: this is the millionth poll we've gotten that shows TX a dead heat, btw.

Yet folks will still assume that it's Lean R, Beto 2018 is the best Biden can hope for and Trump will carry it no questions asked.