Will any Trump 2016 state vote to left of any Clinton 2016 state?

[SunSt0rm]

Will any Trump 2016 state vote to left of any Clinton 2016 state

[Progressive Pessimist]

Michigan could possibly go back to voting to Minnesota's left, maybe.

[TDAS04]

I could be wrong, but I say no.  I'd be surprised if New Hampshire votes to the right of Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc.  New Hampshire is very swingy, and assuming the nations swings left, I think the Granite State will swing further left.  Same thing with Maine, and I don't see Minnesota or Nevada trending right either.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Michigan could possibly go back to voting to Minnesota's left, maybe.

Pennsylvania might vote to Minnesota's left as well.

[Pericles]

Through sheer randomness one of WI, MI or PA could vote to the left of NH, as the margins were so close together in 2016. More unlikely scenarios; FL having a big trend left due to Trump's Covid response and Biden's improvement with seniors having a disproportionate impact there, so it then votes to the left of NH or MN. NV trending to the right due to potential underperformance by Biden with Hispanics (not saying this actually happens), so NV to the right of MI. NE-02 isn't a state, but if it trends to the left it could count for this.

[ProgressiveModerate]

MN, NV, and ME with MI or PA are the most likely possibilities, and I feel like at least one combination is likely, so I'll say yes, though it's no guarentee

[Alben Barkley]

Trump has consistently polled atrociously in New Hampshire and has terrible approval ratings there. I would not be surprised if it goes for Biden by double digits. Minnesota will probably vote similarly to MI/WI/PA, but slightly left. Maybe one or both of MI/PA vote to its left, MI because it used to anyway and PA because of Biden’s sort-of home state advantage there.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trump has consistently polled atrociously in New Hampshire and has terrible approval ratings there. I would not be surprised if it goes for Biden by double digits. Minnesota will probably vote similarly to MI/WI/PA, but slightly left. Maybe one or both of MI/PA vote to its left, MI because it used to anyway and PA because of Biden’s sort-of home state advantage there.

I have a feeling that at this point NH will vote to the left of ME in 2020, and ME is the state more likely to be to the right of MI or PA. Unfortunately my model disagrees, so we'll just ahve to wait and see

[MT Treasurer]

NH is so swingy that it threw out its Republican Senator in a great year for the party, reelected a Democratic Senator in a "competitive" race in a GOP wave year, didn’t even give its popular R governor a larger margin of victory than voters in Vermont and Maryland, and was only one of two states (the other one being NV) targeted by Trump he failed to flip even though it was widely considered more winnable than WI/MI/PA and he was polling better there as well. Like IA, it’s not some absurdly elastic or unpredictable state, it’s a state with a stubborn Democratic (Republican in the case of IA) lean.

[Ferguson97]

Michigan will surely vote to the left of New Hampshire and Minnesota.

[Mr. Smith]

Pennsylvania left of Maine.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ to the left of WI

[Da2017]

Michigan comes to mind. Pennsylvania is a distinct possibility.

[catographer]

Michigan is for sure a possibility: in 2012 voted left of Minnesota, NH, NV, CO, VA, OH, WI, PA, and IA.

[Chips]

I don't think so.

[Pericles]

NH is so swingy that it threw out its Republican Senator in a great year for the party, reelected a Democratic Senator in a "competitive" race in a GOP wave year, didn’t even give its popular R governor a larger margin of victory than voters in Vermont and Maryland, and was only one of two states (the other one being NV) targeted by Trump he failed to flip even though it was widely considered more winnable than WI/MI/PA and he was polling better there as well. Like IA, it’s not some absurdly elastic or unpredictable state, it’s a state with a stubborn Democratic (Republican in the case of IA) lean.

Weren't you one of those people arguing that FL is still a swing state after the 2018 midterms? It's dumb to use the same logic to argue NH isn't, especially since both the presidential race (which was to the right of the nation) and the Senate race were very close.

[ElectionsGuy]

It'll likely happen somewhere, I think this year Michigan and Minnesota vote close to identical, so Minnesota could vote to the right of Michigan.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Most likely MN voting to the right of MI and/or PA.

[Xing]

I'm going to say no. I doubt that MN votes to the right of MI or PA. If we count districts, then maybe NE-02 could vote to the left of one of MN/ME/NH, but even that's probably a stretch.

[nclib]

Only Michigan to the left of Nevada.