AK-PPP: Tie
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October 20, 2021, 04:51:38 AM

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Author Topic: AK-PPP: Tie  (Read 1381 times)
VAR
VARepublican
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« on: August 31, 2020, 02:27:47 PM »

Sullivan (R, inc.) 43% (+4)
Gross (D) 43% (+9)

Sullivan approval: 39/43 (was 35/37)
Gross favorability: 38/28 (was 15/14)

Trump +14 sample

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ir0a6eAHT04YSudrwp2AT-SC71wvmCqe/view
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Pollster
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« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2020, 02:28:38 PM »

Should clarify that this sample was Trump +14 in 2016, they didn't release Presidential numbers here.
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Senator WD
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« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2020, 02:29:55 PM »

N U T
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2020, 02:30:06 PM »

Wow - on July 9, the last Alaska PPP poll, Sullivan led Gross 39/34. Good news for Gross.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/1281227915007610892
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2020, 02:30:19 PM »

How is this race so close
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We Live in Black and White
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« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2020, 02:31:06 PM »

Okay so trying to poll Alaska is like trying to draw in an unlit cave, but those are objectively bad numbers for Sullivan if they're at all reflective.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2020, 02:33:44 PM »

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VAR
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« Reply #7 on: August 31, 2020, 02:34:46 PM »

It should be noted that over half of undecideds supported Trump for president in ‘16. And I still think this race is overhyped.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: August 31, 2020, 02:35:45 PM »
« Edited: August 31, 2020, 02:39:50 PM by MT Treasurer's Neoliberal Mask »

Even if Sullivan wins, this election is just brutal for Republicans + it’s pretty clear that the environment hasn’t improved for the party since 2018.


Underwhelming Republican incumbent + Democratic-trending state + Democrat running as an Independent + awful national environment for the GOP + state which is more competitive in down-ballot races than at the presidential level.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2020, 02:40:37 PM »

I've been saying this race will be close since March.

Whoop.
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Senator WD
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« Reply #10 on: August 31, 2020, 02:41:00 PM »

I think this race might be more flipable than initially thought. Lean R
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #11 on: August 31, 2020, 02:43:31 PM »

It should be noted that over half of undecideds supported Trump for president in ‘16. And I still think this race is overhyped.

Well, if it's a Trump +14 sample, then over half of the decideds were Trump voters and it's tied, so....
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VAR
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« Reply #12 on: August 31, 2020, 02:58:46 PM »

It should be noted that over half of undecideds supported Trump for president in ‘16. And I still think this race is overhyped.

Well, if it's a Trump +14 sample, then over half of the decideds were Trump voters and it's tied, so....

Actually, that’s incorrect. Less than half of the decideds were Trump voters.



‘16 Trump voters make up 49% of this sample & 85% of them are decided on who they’ll vote for. ‘16 Trump voters who are decided on who they’ll vote for, make up 42% of this sample, which is less than half of Sullivan and Gross’ vote shares combined.

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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: August 31, 2020, 03:06:46 PM »

Probably too favorable for Gross, but Republicans can't take this seat for granted.
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Canis
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« Reply #14 on: August 31, 2020, 03:08:51 PM »

I still have this race as a Likely R their are a lot of undecideds who seem to lean GOP but again this is Alaska weird stuff happens their so an upset is certainly possible! this race is more likely to flip than SC and KY IMO
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #15 on: August 31, 2020, 03:13:11 PM »

I still have this race as a Likely R their are a lot of undecideds who seem to lean GOP but again this is Alaska weird stuff happens their so an upset is certainly possible! this race is more likely to flip than SC and KY IMO

Well definitely KY.

But honestly, at this point, with so many polls showing a tight race in SC, it seems to be about on the same level to me. I suppose the weirdness of Alaska and less racially polarized electorate might make it a bit more likely to flip. But both races have similar polling at the moment: Close race with lots of undecideds, who we can assume probably will break for the R in the end, but it's not entirely certain. Especially if the climate is as good for Dems as it looks like it's going to be.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #16 on: August 31, 2020, 03:13:16 PM »

Sullivan is probably still a favorite, but I could see an upset brewing here. He's pretty much a Generic R, and doesn't have a strong personal brand in the same way that Murkowski and Young do. Plus Gross is doing well in fundraising and it's an extremely cheap state that often doesn't play by the political rules.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #17 on: August 31, 2020, 03:41:21 PM »

Still Likely R.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #18 on: August 31, 2020, 03:45:06 PM »


No, Early voting and VBM will pad Biden's lead, this isn't an Inperson Voting of 2016, D+1
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #19 on: August 31, 2020, 03:55:34 PM »

I had this as Likely R, and I'm willing to move this to Lean R.

That said, this is still unlikely to flip, barring a complete collapse of Republican fortunes here.

If Sullivan loses, Doug Jones is probably winning,
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
olawakandi
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« Reply #20 on: August 31, 2020, 03:57:05 PM »

I had this as Likely R, and I'm willing to move this to Lean R.

That said, this is still unlikely to flip, barring a complete collapse of Republican fortunes here.

If Sullivan loses, Doug Jones is probably winning,

Jones is gone, every race isn't gonna flow in the Ds direction, but Gross is more likely to win than Bullock
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« Reply #21 on: August 31, 2020, 03:58:50 PM »

did Sullivan do something to make people mad?
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #22 on: August 31, 2020, 04:04:49 PM »

I had this as Likely R, and I'm willing to move this to Lean R.

That said, this is still unlikely to flip, barring a complete collapse of Republican fortunes here.

If Sullivan loses, Doug Jones is probably winning,

Jones is gone, every race isn't gonna flow in the Ds direction, but Gross is more likely to win than Bullock

Disagree. Bullock is a stronger candidate than Gross is.

I am curious about polling in the House district. Did PPP poll that race?

The last two times anyone's polled that race (PPP imcluded), Alyse Galvin's had a narrow lead.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #23 on: August 31, 2020, 04:05:12 PM »

Alaska is just weird. There's no other way to put it. I don't think politics as they are here in the lower 48 necessarily resonate the same way in a state like Alaska.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #24 on: August 31, 2020, 05:43:20 PM »

Wow, this is an actual race!

Likely R -> Lean R
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