Can this Forum stop freaking out over a small shift in polling?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So I have pretty much avoided this Forum since the RNC because I knew it was going to become a disaster with everyone freaking out about a small shift in one or two polls. And I really don't think it's found it on any factual basis that this is going to be a steady thing if you look at the GCB even from the you got pulled ahead Biden down two points they're still up 11 this is pretty clearly a small but not sustainable bump if you want to freak out over two point difference then be my guest but you're insufferable

Apparently people here forget how elections work and how polling bumps usually are, if you are a Biden supporter and you're worried about the polls than go out there and do the work and stop having a mental breakdown on a obscure forum. My take on all this is wait for more information to come out before ripping out your hair like some users on here are

[WD]

This is Talk Elections, you’re asking too much of us.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's a coping mechanism in reaction to any inkling of uncertainty in what has otherwise been a stable race, to me. I admit to being guilty of this today. It's also fairly infectious.

[PSOL]

This is Talk Elections, you’re asking too much of us.

Exactly this, where do you think we are TSA?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Should the Forum stop freaking out?  Definitely.

Can the Forum stop freaking out?  Probably not.

Will the Forum stop freaking out?  Don't make me laugh.

[Roronoa D. Law]

No, we need to overact over this possibility.

[͘]

Polls are rigged by the deep state. Just wait until election day. Trump will win by 5+ points. This will be a 1988 situation where Dukakis has an unbearable lead, but the underdog comes in ahead.

[Person Man]

Polls are rigged by the deep state. Just wait until election day. Trump will win by 5+ points. This will be a 1988 situation where Dukakis has an unbearable lead, but the underdog comes in ahead.

Dukakis was behind at this point.

[Rand]

Red avatars should be more like Blue avatars—lurk silently on the forum when the other guy is leading by double-digits and then pop up out of nowhere as the first poster on any poll or post containing good news for the candidate they support.

[Person Man]

Red avatars should be more like Blue avatars—lurk silently on the forum when the other guy is leading by double-digits and then pop up out of nowhere as the first poster on any poll or post containing good news for the candidate they support.

Like a cat and a lizard!

[Horus]

It's not a small shift.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

A lot of this feels like "Baby's First Election". This was bound to happen in the immediate aftermath of the conventions. That and the amount of people freaking out seems equal to the amount of doomsayers getting instant vindication that Trump's margins/support seemed to have returned to (Still middling) Pre-Floyd levels after two polls.

Oh God, imagine if the only other poll we get this weekend is a CNN one showing further tightening from their previous Biden+4 poll. I don't think this place would survive the night.

Anyway, though the two polls (Three if you count LA Times) can look better for Biden, that Trump still can't get above 44-45% is the real story. Until he can get over that 45% polling hump for over a week before the debates, then I'll be freaking out.

Hell, this pair of tweets were shared here but conveniently muffled by all the dread. Seems kinda important to note:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1299754974138728450?s=19


I need to go back at the post-RNC polls in 2008 and see what the reactions were to McCain leading for a week or 2 (EDIT: Sadly, I can't find any threads from that time period. I'll try 2012)

[WD]

A lot of this feels like "Baby's First Election". This was bound to happen in the immediate aftermath of the conventions. That and the amount of people freaking out seems equal to the amount of doomsayers getting instant vindication that Trump's margins seemed to have returned to Pre-Floyd levels after two polls.

Oh God, imagine if the only other poll we get this weekend is a CNN one showing further tightening from their previous Biden+4 poll. I don't think this place would survive the night.

Anyway, though the two polls (Three of you count LA Times) can look better for Biden, that Trump still can't get above 44-45% is the real story. Until he can get over that 45% polling hump for over a week before the debates, then I'll be freaking out.

Hell, this pair of tweets were shared here but conveniently muffled by all the dread. Seems important to note:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1299754974138728450?s=19

I need to go back at the post-RNC polls in 2008 and see what the reactions were to McCain leading for a week or 2

Imagine if their was a CNN poll showing: Trump 44 Biden 42

[Middle-aged Europe]

I guess it's just a testament for how much people are scared about the possibility of a second Trump term.

[ProudModerate2]

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It would be nice if we had some sort of “panic attack containment thread” instead of seeing the same new thread started almost every day by another Dem convinced we are seeing a Trump comeback.

[Ferguson97]

[YE]

It would be nice if we had some sort of “panic attack containment thread” instead of seeing the same new thread started almost every day by another Dem convinced we are seeing a Trump comeback.

If this gets suggested by others I’ll consider. Will probably create an inverse thread as well if I go ahead.

[Hammy]

It's not a small shift.

You're right--there's essentially no real shift in the first place.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Unfortunately no, because we're all political junkies who are either scarred after 2016 or really just want to see Trump win. We tend to accept evidence that aligns most closely with our perspective mentally, while rejecting all other evidence.

[brucejoel99]

Can this Forum stop-

No.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Red avatars should be more like Blue avatars—lurk silently on the forum when the other guy is leading by double-digits and then pop up out of nowhere as the first poster on any poll or post containing good news for the candidate they support.

Somehow MN being tied by a pollster notorious for overestimating Republicans that literally inflates Trumps vote % means that MN is all of a sudden competative, despite either higher quality polls show Biden with a comfortable lead and most all other evidence suggesting Biden will win MN. When Biden LEADS by 2 points in a MO poll, no one seems to care, and the poll is written off as junk. There's clearly a bias in how we treat polling this cycle.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is getting credit for his quick response to Hurricane Laura, the EC map get smaller if FL and NC as expected will get hit with a Hurricane,  they are waves out there now and we have 75 percent of Hurricane season left.

[Brittain33]

It's not a small shift.

It’s a small shift by the standards of any election but 2020 which has been extremely stable.

[Benjamin Frank]

Polls are rigged by the deep state. Just wait until election day. Trump will win by 5+ points. This will be a 1988 situation where Dukakis has an unbearable lead, but the underdog comes in ahead.

I assume you mean 'unbeatable' lead. 1988 was interesting in the annals of polling because right after the Democratic convention Michael Dukakis had a 17% lead, however, after the, I believe, second debate, where he answered a question about the murder of his wife with a dry legalistic opposition to the death penalty, Dukakis trailed by 17%.  (Both polls were 55-38%.)

This 34% swing is the biggest in Presidential political polling.