CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Canis]

Newsoms approvals surged at the beginning of the outbreak but have been crashing down ever since If Biden wins and its a dem midterm a strong Republican like San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer could mount a serious Challenge would Faulconer stand a chance or is the state to far gone?

[MT Treasurer]

Newsom is beyond safe even against an Independent challenger/in a Biden midterm/in a GOP wave. Poizner did lose by a respectable margin, but he also didn’t run against an incumbent in a high-profile race.

The state is way too gone for any Democrat to lose a gubernatorial or Senate race, unless something really weird happens in the top-two primary.

[SevenEleven]

Newsom is beyond safe even against an Independent challenger/in a Biden midterm/in a GOP wave. Poizner did lose by a respectable margin, but he also didn’t run against an incumbent in a high-profile race.

The state is way too gone for any Democrat to lose a gubernatorial or Senate race, unless something really weird happens in the top-two primary.

Even then, it's not going to happen. It's way too expensive to compete in California.

Keep in mind, Poizner had done a good job before and was running against an obviously moronic shill. Newsom is not Ricardo Lara, and he could be underwater and win by 10+ points.

[brucejoel99]

In the here & now, a majority of Californians will not vote for a Republican, period. The name of the individual running or whether or not they're running as an "independent" Republican is irrelevant. You could put up Faulconer, Mayes, or any other Republican today, & Democrats won't vote for a Republican. Hell, you could put Nancy Pelosi on the ballot as a Republican & she'd be unable to win in her own district (see: Steve Cooley's 2010 results in LA County).

[NewYorkExpress]

It's not impossible for a Republican to win in California in a Biden midterm, if they have the cash to compete, and the name recognition. Basically, they'd have to be a Republican Hollywood Celebrity to have any realistic chance at winning, and even then they'd start out as an underdog, unless Newsom chose not to run to focus on 2024 Presidential bid, or chose to run for the Senate (remember Kamala's seat will likely have an appointed incumbent in 2022. Don't rule out Newsom appointing a placeholder and then running for the seat, should Kamala be elected VP.)

[MT Treasurer]

It's not impossible for a Republican to win in California in a Biden midterm, if they have the cash to compete, and the name recognition. Basically, they'd have to be a Republican Hollywood Celebrity to have any realistic chance at winning, and even then they'd start out as an underdog, unless Newsom chose not to run to focus on 2024 Presidential bid, or chose to run for the Senate (remember Kamala's seat will likely have an appointed incumbent in 2022. Don't rule out Newsom appointing a placeholder and then running for the seat, should Kamala be elected VP.)

You mean, like Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman, who lost by double digits in a R wave election when the state was at least 10 points less Republican than it is today?

[NewYorkExpress]

It's not impossible for a Republican to win in California in a Biden midterm, if they have the cash to compete, and the name recognition. Basically, they'd have to be a Republican Hollywood Celebrity to have any realistic chance at winning, and even then they'd start out as an underdog, unless Newsom chose not to run to focus on 2024 Presidential bid, or chose to run for the Senate (remember Kamala's seat will likely have an appointed incumbent in 2022. Don't rule out Newsom appointing a placeholder and then running for the seat, should Kamala be elected VP.)

You mean, like Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman, who lost by double digits in a R wave election when the state was at least 10 points less Republican than it is today?

Fiorina was kneecapped by a scandal in the final months of the race, and spent months running to the right and embracing the Tea Party, as did Whitman. If both had run towards the middle we'd be looking at Governor Fiorina and Senator Whitman (especially Fiorina).

[Oryxslayer]

Poizner was the test balloon to see if Moderate republicans running as professionalized independents could win statewide. I noted this at the time and mapped Poizner's primary statewide specifically for this reason. Poizner had everything going for him: endorsements from prominent papers in blue metro areas, a divided democratic vote ideologically, a base in Blue silicon valley, a proven track record to run on, a position far below the polarizing toplines, and much more.

Poizner lost. The test balloon popped.

CA is too blue for a non-dem to win without scandals and widespread disapproval, and the nature of the state means that it's more likely a technocrat from one of the metros runs as a not-Dem and gets runoff slot 2. CA, like TX, needs a lot of money to get a campaign going. The state GOP is in a casket and the federal party has far more attractive targets, leading to even the most attractive republicans getting hung out to dry.

What's going to be interesting in CA 2022 is how the legislature gets shaken up after redistricting, and how that squares with potential openings higher up. Also potentially Kamala's senate seat.

[SevenEleven]

It's not impossible for a Republican to win in California in a Biden midterm, if they have the cash to compete, and the name recognition. Basically, they'd have to be a Republican Hollywood Celebrity to have any realistic chance at winning, and even then they'd start out as an underdog, unless Newsom chose not to run to focus on 2024 Presidential bid, or chose to run for the Senate (remember Kamala's seat will likely have an appointed incumbent in 2022. Don't rule out Newsom appointing a placeholder and then running for the seat, should Kamala be elected VP.)

You mean, like Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman, who lost by double digits in a R wave election when the state was at least 10 points less Republican than it is today?

Fiorina was kneecapped by a scandal in the final months of the race, and spent months running to the right and embracing the Tea Party, as did Whitman. If both had run towards the middle we'd be looking at Governor Fiorina and Senator Whitman (especially Fiorina).

This is laughably incorrect.

[SevenEleven]

When talking about how just gone CA is for Republicans, perhaps the most important place to look is the Board of Equalization.

BoE is a huge statewide stepping-stone and Republicans held half the district seats from 1990-2018. No more and perhaps not for a long time. It's not just federal and statewide elections that they can't compete in.

[President Johnson]

Newsom will easily get reelected. There is nothing to see here.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I feel like there’s probably a better title for this thread given that 85 people died when the town of Paradise burnt down thanks to PG&E’s negligence.

[Mike Thick]

Faulconer is pretty clearly telegraphing a run. Going to be satisfying to watch CAGOP's golden boy get absolutely clobbered

[S019]

Faulconer is pretty clearly telegraphing a run. Going to be satisfying to watch CAGOP's golden boy get absolutely clobbered

Is he planning a Governor run, because there's no way he wins that. Running for Lt. Gov, Treasurer, Insurance Commissioner all make more sense, as does a run for CA-49, if he's interested in that.

[DrScholl]

A Republican who switched to Independent to run would do just as poorly a Republican, because the entire campaign would be centered around said person being a phony independent trying deceive voters.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Faulconer is pretty clearly telegraphing a run. Going to be satisfying to watch CAGOP's golden boy get absolutely clobbered

Just like fellow Mayor & "rising star" Ashley Swearengin.

Ran for Controller and lost by slightly more than Poizner despite piss-poor Democrat turnout

[Roll Roons]

Faulconer is pretty clearly telegraphing a run. Going to be satisfying to watch CAGOP's golden boy get absolutely clobbered

Just like fellow Mayor & "rising star" Ashley Swearengin.

Ran for Controller and lost by slightly more than Poizner despite piss-poor Democrat turnout

Eh, it's still California. A Republican losing statewide by 8 is respectable.

[Pericles]

How did Newsom handle Covid? The summer spike reflects badly on his response, but I haven't looked into it.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

How did Newsom handle Covid? The summer spike reflects badly on his response, but I haven't looked into it.

Initially it was pretty good (we were one of the first states to lock down), but I think there was a lot of pressure on him to reopen. That did not go well. I’d give him a middling grade. Definitely better than someone like say Noem, but not the greatest.

[Sir Mohamed]

Faulconer is pretty clearly telegraphing a run. Going to be satisfying to watch CAGOP's golden boy get absolutely clobbered

He'd be a decent candidate for GOP and in a Biden midterm, I could see him do better than Cox in 2018. Maybe even flipping OC. Will he make it really competitive? Nah.

[SevenEleven]

How did Newsom handle Covid? The summer spike reflects badly on his response, but I haven't looked into it.

Initially it was pretty good (we were one of the first states to lock down), but I think there was a lot of pressure on him to reopen. That did not go well. I’d give him a middling grade. Definitely better than someone like say Noem, but not the greatest.

It's pretty clear London Breed deserves a lot of the early credit, as far as actually containing a hot spot.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

How did Newsom handle Covid? The summer spike reflects badly on his response, but I haven't looked into it.

Initially it was pretty good (we were one of the first states to lock down), but I think there was a lot of pressure on him to reopen. That did not go well. I’d give him a middling grade. Definitely better than someone like say Noem, but not the greatest.

It's pretty clear London Breed deserves a lot of the early credit, as far as actually containing a hot spot.

Yeah, the Bay Area as a whole has been a lot better off. I know that my area (Sacramento) was doing very good for a while too, but I think that our numbers have gone up. The really sad thing is that a lot of the cases seem to be in more heavily Hispanic areas that probably don’t have as good of healthcare. I think that some of the Spanish language outreach could probably be improved.

[SevenEleven]

How did Newsom handle Covid? The summer spike reflects badly on his response, but I haven't looked into it.

Initially it was pretty good (we were one of the first states to lock down), but I think there was a lot of pressure on him to reopen. That did not go well. I’d give him a middling grade. Definitely better than someone like say Noem, but not the greatest.

It's pretty clear London Breed deserves a lot of the early credit, as far as actually containing a hot spot.

Yeah, the Bay Area as a whole has been a lot better off. I know that my area (Sacramento) was doing very good for a while too, but I think that our numbers have gone up. The really sad thing is that a lot of the cases seem to be in more heavily Hispanic areas that probably don’t have as good of healthcare. I think that some of the Spanish language outreach could probably be improved.

I'm not sure that outreach is going to do much. For older Hispanics who are immigrants, they aren't likely to change their habits. At the same time, you have a lot of multi-generational households, with more people than should be confined to a SFH. And to place the cherry on top, a disproportionate numbers of Hispanics work in heavy industry or the service industry, with poor working conditions and necessitating contact with many persons daily. Outside of some hefty top-down efforts to intervene, the situation will not improve.

[coloradocowboi]

Newsom is more likely to face a credible challenger to his left than a credible Republican, but they would fail too. He isn't going anywhere, and it would be a waste of time to even try (although I welcome it).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Newsom is more likely to face a credible challenger to his left than a credible Republican, but they would fail too. He isn't going anywhere, and it would be a waste of time to even try (although I welcome it).

Lara and Becerra are better targets for anyone remotely progressive (they don't even have to run as leftwing, just "not corrupt" and "not 100% in hock to police unions" respectively).